The first stage of the US dollar trend in the next three months is from the beginning of the year to the end of March, and the US dollar index will fluctuate from a low of 89.2 1 to a stage high of 93.44. During this period, the upward trend of the US dollar index was mainly driven by the higher yield of US bonds. The enthusiasm of the market for "re-inflation trading" has pushed up inflation expectations. The yield of 10-year US bonds has been running from 0.93% at the beginning of the year to 1.70% at the end of March. The rapid rise in the yield of US bonds and the potential stagflation risk brought about by the rise in oil prices have become the fuse that caused the market to worry that the Fed will tighten monetary policy ahead of schedule, which made the US dollar lower against the interest rate. The second stage is from the beginning of April to the end of May, and the US dollar index peaked and fell back to the low point at the beginning of the year. During this period, non-agricultural data failed to meet expectations, US fiscal expenditure increased, and market liquidity remained relatively loose rather than tense. Powell repeatedly made public dovish remarks to jointly push down the US dollar index. The third stage is from early June to now. After the US dollar index fluctuated at the 90 mark for nearly a month, the king returned and quickly rose from 90 to 97. In the second half of the year, the US dollar strengthened against almost all G7 currencies, mainly due to the rapid recovery of the US labor market and the rising real inflation data. The market has set a much higher price than expected for the Fed's accelerated rate hike schedule. The persistent high fever of inflation in the United States forced Powell to give up the "temporary theory of inflation" after his re-election. The market's expectation for the Fed to accelerate the reduction of its bond purchases was fulfilled at the FOMC meeting in June+February, 5438, and the first rate hike was advanced to the middle of next year. The differences in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and other G-7 central banks supported the rise of the US dollar index, and kept hitting new highs this year.