Policy and industry double blessing
In the early 1980s, China began the research and development of lithium batteries. Before 20 12, lithium batteries in China were mainly used in digital products, accounting for 93%, with a small production capacity. On June 20 12, the State Council released the Development Plan of Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry to support the research and development of power battery technology. Since then, the share of power batteries in the battery market has gradually increased, and by 20 18, the share of power batteries in the next level will reach about 60%. In addition, since 20 15, China has become the largest electric vehicle market in the world, which has also formed a strong support for power batteries.
In order to promote the development of power battery industry, China has successively issued a series of policies, and defined the main tasks of the development of power battery industry. With the strong support of the policy system, China's power battery technology level has made great progress, the industrial scale has been continuously expanded, and the market concentration of power batteries has also been continuously improved.
In this development process, there is an important background that has to be mentioned. That is, in order to prevent climate warming, the major economies in the world signed the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which further promoted the transformation of global energy technology and the drastic reshaping of the market. Driven by emerging technology companies such as Tesla, the pioneer of new energy vehicles, the global new energy vehicle industry has experienced explosive growth. China's new energy automobile industry is also following the trend, constantly upgrading technology, optimizing products, and accelerating the exploration of market reshaping. With the dual promotion of policies and industries, China has quickly become a global producer of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, and also a key market for foreign automobile giants. The domestic lithium battery industry chain once showed a hot momentum of both production and sales.
After a long period of industrial accumulation and the double blessing of policies and industries, China has formed a complete lithium battery industrial system from lithium raw materials to new energy vehicles, and the market space is still huge. These factors determine that the 202 1 China lithium battery industry chain has sufficient support, which is not a simple concept hype. This comprehensive strength will inevitably support the industry for a longer period of time.
"Double carbon" enhances growth potential
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the epidemic has forced people's living habits and travel modes to change obviously, and traveling at home, on foot or by electric car has become more normal. With the implementation of 3C standard in China, the application rate of lithium batteries for two-wheeled vehicles has increased, lead-acid battery electric vehicles have been gradually replaced, and the demand for lithium-ion light electronic products and lithium batteries for two-wheeled vehicles has continued to increase. In addition, with the rise of domestic motorcycle market, domestic motorcycle consumption will increase by 365,438+00% in 2020, and battery replacement consumption will increase by 65,438+050%, which will also drive the rapid growth of upstream lithium battery demand.
At present, "post-80s" and "post-90s" have gradually become the main consumer groups in the automobile market, and their sense of science and technology and economy are the attributes of automobile products that they value more. New energy vehicles attract a large number of loyal young fans with their low use cost and high-tech design appearance, which is also one of the important factors for the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales.
In addition, in addition to the continuous growth of domestic demand for power batteries, the demand for power batteries in Europe, an important export market of China's power batteries, is also growing rapidly. In 2020, Europe's new energy vehicle market is booming, and European countries heavily subsidize electric two-wheeled vehicles. In that year, Europe accounted for 29.2% of China's total lithium battery exports, which led to the rapid growth of domestic two-wheeled vehicles and upstream lithium battery exports.
If the above factors are the necessary conditions for the vigorous development of lithium batteries, the implementation and sustained efforts of the 202 1 "Double Carbon" policy will be an important catalyst for the vigorous development of the lithium battery industry chain market in China.
In 2020, China officially put forward the goal of "double carbon", and 202 1 will be fully implemented. Driven by this, the national carbon-related industry quickly set off a "carbon" wind. In the transportation industry, the biggest impact and change is that new energy vehicles have begun to accelerate into public life. In the past two years, with the gradual maturity of new energy vehicle technology, the new energy vehicle market has a great scene. The main power sources of new energy vehicles are hydrogen fuel cells and lithium batteries, but compared with lithium batteries, hydrogen fuel cell technology is still immature in China, with high energy consumption, and the price and maintenance cost of fuel trams are more expensive than those of electric vehicles. Therefore, as far as the current domestic situation is concerned, lithium batteries are still firmly dominant in the application of new energy vehicles.
According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the output of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 2.566 million in 20021year, up by 175.3% year-on-year, and will continue to double after 2020. The demand for new energy vehicles has increased by such a large margin, further increasing the demand for lithium battery products in the domestic market.
The problem of raw materials needs to be solved urgently
Lithium, cobalt and nickel are raw materials for the production of lithium batteries. The global concentration of lithium, cobalt and nickel resources is high, and it is characterized by oligopoly. China is relatively rich in lithium resources, and its total reserves rank fourth in the world. However, due to poor endowment, the capacity utilization rate is still not high.
According to statistics, in 20 19, the output of lithium raw materials in China was about 75 million tons, accounting for only 10% of the global consumption, while the consumption of lithium salt accounted for 49% of the global consumption, which means that a large number of lithium raw materials in China need to be imported from abroad.
Cobalt raw materials are mainly used in the field of battery consumption, and the proportion of cobalt used in batteries reaches more than 80%. However, China's cobalt resources account for about 2% of the global reserves, which are scarce and scattered and need to be imported from Congo. According to statistics, in 2020, China imported about 52,800 tons of cobalt ore and its concentrate, while its export was only 0. 13 tons, resulting in a serious trade deficit.
Nickel resources in China are mainly used for stainless steel, and the consumption of nickel in batteries is low. However, nickel resources in China are not rich, and nickel imports mainly depend on Indonesia and the Philippines.
Globally, Chile and Australia have the richest lithium resources, accounting for 66% of the world total. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the upstream lithium mine mining has been restricted by many factors, raw material enterprises have failed to achieve the expansion plan as scheduled, and the supply side has basically no new capacity. Only some mines and salt lakes have improved the capacity utilization rate, and the lithium output has shown a negative growth trend from 86,000 tons in 2065,438+09 to 82,000 tons in 2020. In 20021year, although the international lithium battery capacity has increased, it will take some time to release the capacity. Affected by natural disasters and epidemics, Chile's goods are stranded and the supply of production capacity is delayed, resulting in a shortage of lithium salt supply. Congo has also been affected by the epidemic. The efficiency of land transportation decreased by 30%~40%, and the discount coefficient of cobalt raw materials rose to 92.5%, a record high.
In the future, with the further release of lithium mineral energy at home and abroad, the current tight supply of key raw materials may be alleviated. However, as far as the current complicated international situation is concerned, China should also seek a stable supply channel of lithium and cobalt raw materials from China, speed up the breakthrough of lithium mine mining technology and improve the capacity utilization rate of lithium raw materials, so as to meet the demand for lithium batteries in the China market in the coming decades.
To sum up, after years of development, the strength of lithium batteries in China has been significantly enhanced, and the industry preparation has already had a solid foundation, and the introduction of the "double carbon" policy has given birth to new growth potential. However, the supply end of raw materials fails to keep up with the market demand in time, and the rise of demand curve and the decline of supply curve will inevitably produce higher market prices. The country needs to pay enough attention to this contradiction between supply and demand in the lithium battery industry chain and speed up the solution.