after world war ii, Japan achieved a long-term stable growth of 1% annually through the "export-investment-oriented" economic growth mode. at the same time, thanks to the rapid development of automobile, steel and other industries, the average annual growth rate of Japan's total exports remained above 15%, almost twice the growth rate of world trade in the same period, and correspondingly, its foreign exchange reserves began to increase substantially during this period. On September 22, 1985, the finance ministers of the United States, Japan, Britain, Germany and France issued a joint statement in new york, deciding that the five countries should take joint action to make major currencies appreciate against the US dollar in an orderly manner, so as to correct the overvaluation of the US dollar. This joint statement is the famous "Plaza Agreement". After the signing of the agreement, the exchange rates of the world's major currencies against the US dollar rose to varying degrees. Compared with 1985, the yen appreciated the most, reaching 86.1%. The appreciation of the yen continued until the end of 1988, and it began to fall back in 1989.
The positive impact of the appreciation of the yen
First of all, the appreciation has improved the international purchasing power of Japanese enterprises and reduced the cost of purchasing raw materials and introducing advanced technologies. According to relevant statistics, in 1985, the appreciation difference between Japan's export losses and import gains was 3.5 trillion yen. Japanese enterprises mostly adopt the form of purchasing advanced technology from European and American countries and developing by themselves, which effectively promotes the technological innovation of Japanese enterprises. The appreciation also prompted Japanese enterprises to take the initiative to take measures to reduce product costs, improve work efficiency, strengthen non-price competition, innovate product quality, design, shape and variety in order to increase the added value of products, and carry out technological innovations in raw materials, production, circulation and production procedures, and achieved good results. By the mid-198s, Japan's economy was growing, and it occupied an international leading position in automobile, steel, electronics and other manufacturing industries from scale to technology.
Secondly, the appreciation has promoted Japan's foreign investment. After the lasting trend of Japanese yen appreciation was formed, Japanese domestic enterprises shifted their production bases from home to abroad in order to cope with the decline in export profits caused by Japanese yen appreciation. In recent years, the shift of Japanese enterprise production base to Asian emerging industrial economies has attracted attention. Up to the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Japan's foreign direct investment in Asian countries and regions has been increasing. Japan's massive overseas investment has reduced production costs, eased trade frictions to a certain extent, and promoted the economic take-off of emerging market countries and regions.
Third, the appreciation of the yen has further promoted the scale expansion of Japanese banks. Against the background of the sharp appreciation of the yen and the long-term ultra-low interest rate, the rapid rise of Japanese asset prices has greatly increased the scale of off-balance-sheet assets of Japanese banks. At that time, Moody's and Standard & Poor's once rated Japan Commercial Bank as "very trustworthy".
Lessons and enlightenment from the appreciation of the yen
In response to the pressure of the appreciation of the yen, the Japanese government introduced a series of economic policies, but the effect was not obvious, which eventually led to the depression of the Japanese economy. Looking at the historical process of yen appreciation, we can get the following lessons and inspirations:
First, the monetary policy guidance is unfavorable. Under the pressure of yen appreciation, the Japanese monetary authorities successively cut interest rates sharply, but the expanding monetary policy did not change the trend of yen appreciation. On the contrary, low interest rates injected a lot of liquidity into the market, stimulating a flood of capital to flood into the stock market and real estate market. When the economic situation was better than expected, the investment will of market participants was continuously strengthened, forming a serious asset bubble. On December 29, 1989, the Nikkei index rose to an all-time high of 38,915 points. In January of the following year, the Federal Reserve announced the tightening of monetary policy, which obviously affected Japan, and the Nikkei index fell by nearly 3% in about three months. By August 1992, the stock index had fallen to 14,3 points, close to 13, points at the beginning of the bubble economy. At the same time, real estate prices have also collapsed all the way down. All these disastrous consequences have also brought a total outbreak of risks to banks and other related systems.
second, the operating mechanism and risk management mechanism of banks are not perfect. The appreciation of the Japanese yen also caused the financial assets of Japan to swell, banks lent without restraint, excess capital expanded overseas and bought blindly, and suffered huge losses in futures, real estate and other markets, and banks also generated a large number of bad debts, which eventually formed Japan's famous bubble economy in the 198s. The bursting of the economic bubble eventually led to the long-term recession of Japan's economy from 199 to 2. During the bubble economy period, Japanese bank funds poured into the stock and real estate markets for speculative transactions, and turned a blind eye to the stock and real estate prices that had seriously deviated from the value. Finally, the chain reaction caused by asset depreciation is transmitted like dominoes, and the successive runs and bankruptcies of banks and other financial institutions have triggered a financial crisis and a long-term economic recession.
third, industrial policy mistakes. In order to prevent the appreciation of the yen from causing too much impact on the economy, Japan began to implement the industrial policy of changing from the external demand-led economic development model to the domestic demand-led economic development model. The Japanese government regards real estate and related industries as leading industries, prompting a lot of idle funds to invest in real estate and related industries. On the one hand, this has prompted a large number of idle funds to flow into the real estate industry and the securities market, leading to the skyrocketing real estate prices and stock prices, forming an economic bubble; On the other hand, Japan failed to cultivate the correct leading industries, and failed to take advantage of the favorable opportunity of the appreciation of the yen at that time to adjust and upgrade its industrial structure, which made Japan lose to the United States in the technical competition since then.
Policy implications of RMB exchange rate reform
The current situation of RMB is similar to that in 198s. The domestic environment is also characterized by long-term rapid economic growth, huge trade surplus, rapidly accumulated foreign exchange reserves of US dollars, and the international environment is also characterized by the deterioration of twin deficits in the United States, the pressure of the continuous decline of the US dollar and the low interest rate policy. The governments and non-governmental organizations of developed countries also express their demands for further appreciation of RMB from time to time on various occasions. In 28, the RMB exchange rate broke through the integer mark of 7., and it is expected that the RMB will continue to appreciate, rising to 6. ~ 6.5 in 28, and the RMB has entered the "6 era". Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of the appreciation of the yen on Japan's economy and its reference and enlightenment to China's policy operation in the process of RMB exchange rate change.
First of all, gradual appreciation is more in China's interest. It is necessary to prevent the exchange rate from changing dramatically in the short term. In the second China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, Wu Yi, then Vice Premier of the State Council, said on the reform of RMB exchange rate: "With the changes of the market, the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate will continue to increase. China's exchange rate reform will continue to be carried out in an orderly manner in accordance with the principles of autonomy, controllability and gradualism, and the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate will be continuously increased through reform to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. " On the exchange rate issue, China emphasized that the autonomy of reform has its rationality and feasibility. In terms of macro-strategy, RMB appreciation must be gradual.
Secondly, we should avoid excessively loose monetary policy. In 27, despite the rising RMB exchange rate, the domestic economy still showed signs of overheating. Under the background of increasing government policies to limit the excessive rise of real estate prices, the domestic real estate market is still very hot, and housing prices in various places are rising. Therefore, in the case of imperfect financial supervision system, excessively loose monetary policy will easily lead to a bubble economy, and then attract the impact of international hot money. Therefore, the central bank should be cautious when formulating policies.
Third, the expansionary fiscal policy of expanding investment should be implemented cautiously. To prevent the Japanese government from promoting economic recovery and adopting an expansionary fiscal policy of expanding investment for many years in a row, the result is not only a deeper economic downturn but also a financial dilemma. During the five years of vigorously implementing expansionary fiscal policy in China, the economy has always been depressed. Since 23, the expansionary fiscal policy has gradually slowed down, and the expansionary fiscal policy of expanding investment has gradually changed into a neutral fiscal policy that focuses on public services, and the economic and financial situation has obviously improved. The vigorous implementation of expansionary fiscal policy and the practice of gradual withdrawal deserve serious analysis and reflection.
finally, vigorously promote the reform of social security, and enhance the service function of public finance. Japan's economy has fallen into a long-term downturn, and the fundamental reason lies in the chronic disease of insufficient consumer demand. It is difficult to improve residents' consumption demand, and the crux lies in the increased concern about social security. China must attach importance to strengthening social security and give full play to the social security function of finance. Let finance get rid of the pressure of expanding investment as soon as possible, and give full play to the public welfare and social security functions that finance should have.
China Information Daily: May 28, 28 14: 57: .