Of course, according to the current forecast trend of oil prices, oil prices may rise on August 9. Taking the fifth working day in China as an example, the important indicator of price adjustment reference crude oil change rate reached 2.44%, which was significantly lower than the previous working day. However, it is predicted that the cumulative increase of oil price is close to 150 yuan/ton, which is converted into price increase. At present, it is expected to increase by 0.65,438+03 yuan/liter. Because the specific increase rate is 0. 12 yuan /-0. 14 yuan/liter, according to the average price, it is estimated to be 0. 13 yuan/liter. It will cost an ordinary private car about 6.5 yuan to fill a box of 50L gasoline, which is also an important sign that oil prices will rise.
In addition, there are five working days before the new round of refined oil price adjustment. During this period, the market fluctuated greatly and there were many uncertain factors. Therefore, the cumulative upward adjustment of this oil price forecast is close to 150 yuan/ton for reference only, and the specific oil price adjustment shall be subject to the announcement of the National Development and Reform Commission. But then again, according to the past practice, when the cumulative increase of oil price forecast far exceeds the red line of 50 yuan/ton price adjustment, it means that the possibility of oil price increase is greater, and I am afraid this time is no exception. By then, the prices of 92 # gasoline and 95 # gasoline will rebound, and the fuel cost of car owners will increase.
Secondly, the international oil price, which was concerned and discussed by countless people, fell sharply in August 1, and both WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices were lowered, especially the WTI crude oil contract in recent months fell by 4.80% to $93.89/barrel, the biggest drop in nearly three weeks. Behind the sharp drop in international oil prices is closely related to the panic caused by renewed demand concerns. Recently, the negative factors for energy have gradually increased, including the increasingly obvious downward pressure on the economy, the weak global manufacturing data suppressing the prospect of energy demand, and the recovery of crude oil production capacity in many places, which also makes the supply and demand situation subtle.
Judging from various indications, the demand in the crude oil market is worried about rekindling, and the overall performance is "oversupply", which has changed compared with the supply relationship of the previous period, resulting in a sharp drop in international oil prices on the first trading day in August. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 4.73 US dollars to close at 93.89 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 4.80%; Brent crude oil futures for June delivery in London, England, 65438+ 10 fell by $3.94 to close at $0.03 per barrel, a decrease of 3.79%. Among them, the closing price of Brent crude oil futures almost fell below the 100 USD/barrel mark, which shows that the panic caused by renewed demand concerns has a great impact on crude oil futures prices.
To sum up, the domestic refined oil price forecast is adjusted back to 150 yuan/ton due to the fear of renewed demand. Because the forecast increase is still far beyond the red line of price adjustment, the oil price is on the rise, which is also an important basis for the oil price increase on August 9, because the current forecast increase of 0. 13 yuan/liter means that No.92 gasoline will rebound. Similarly, at that time, gasoline in China will rebound.