Combined with my actual combat experience, I would like to share my views on the following issues.
1. Why do you say you must learn to lose money in the futures market first?
This sentence I often say is not a joke, although whenever I hear it, someone always laughs like a comic bag thrown by a crosstalk performer.
Let me talk about the true meaning of this sentence from several aspects.
(1) You have to pay back the money. At the beginning, many people who entered the market with insufficient psychological preparation were confused and lost their money.
I saw it with my own eyes when American coffee skyrocketed 1994. A customer was so anxious that his finger computer shouted at the broker, "Stop it!" " How to hold it? Soon, he was kicked out of the futures market in a few minutes.
Is this wrong compensation? This customer doesn't know how to set a stop loss or how to pay the bill. I don't know how to control the risk. Is it because I lost my money? This is also the customer's first order, and I have never seen this customer since.
I think maybe he has no chance with futures from now on! Because in the end, he didn't understand what was going on. The future is just a memory of disaster and fear for him. How can I make it clear? It is to know the huge risks like the back of your hand, and then lose money according to your own plans, ideas and expectations.
This doesn't sound good. It seems like a joke, but it's not. I don't want you to actively look for the meaning of losing money, not for the purpose of losing money. The purpose is of course to make money. What I am talking about is to have a specific plan every time: if the market goes against the trend, at which price will we appear and how much will we lose when we leave.
Admit defeat rationally. But that doesn't mean we lost the whole war. Don't worry, opportunities will follow. As long as we have the strength, we will win at any time.
What I mean by "clear compensation" also includes: you should know in advance what impact you will have on your overall operation after losing money, whether it has a significant impact, and what adjustments need to be made in strategy and tactics. It also includes the influence on the mentality.
(2) Compensation is meaningful. Not every loss list in the market is a bad list, and not every profit list is a good list.
The key to a good trader is reasonable compensation and orderly profit. What is reasonable compensation? First of all, the ratio of income to risk is reasonable-that is, how much risk to take and how much profit to seek.
For example, the market goes against the trend and is ready to pay 30 thousand to leave. If you go right, you can earn 3,000 yuan before reaching the next resistance level and support level. Is this a good reason to enter the market? If the market goes against the trend and you really leave at a loss, then I think your loss is unreasonable, because you have taken a risk ten times greater than your expected profit, and it seems that you have completely forgotten the concept of "small and broad".
You are "nurturing the small with the big", even if you make profits for nine times in a row, it is not enough to pay the bill at one time. But how confident are you that you will continue to make profits? Operating in this way of thinking, we have won the battle before entering the market.
Don't you think it's more meaningful if the income risk of the two is more than the reverse compensation? Secondly, we should set an effective support level and the price of leaving after the resistance level, that is to say, we should set a threshold for you to leave, so that you can have a reason to rely on risks.
The gateway is the price that both sides compete fiercely, and here we can verify the overall development trend at a very small cost. In these fierce battles, the classic drama of the futures market is often staged.
Third, if it is a rapidly rising market and a sharply falling market, you should follow the trend, and the above two conditions have no reference value. What do we do? 1) Small volume will continue to progress in the expected direction as the market continues, and then gradually increase positions. The first consideration is to control risks.
2) If the momentum is slightly reversed or stagnated, you will leave immediately regardless of profit or loss. Remember, we dare to make any kind of market because we can decisively control risks. (Some people say we should be bold in making orders, while others say we should be safe. Actually, it's all right. It is overall security and local boldness. Overall security and personal boldness. Both are indispensable).
2. Why is the unilateral potential irreversible?
Originally, unilateral market is a great opportunity to make money and profit in theory, but people are used to the ups and downs of the market, but at this time they are shocked by this seemingly irrational market. For example, as far as the unilateral rising market is concerned, it is considered that it has risen very high and will fall sooner or later.
Or choose a higher price to short! As far as my experience is concerned, many people have been kicked out of the unilateral market because of the market reversal and no stop loss. In addition, it is extremely difficult if you persuade people to do more markets unilaterally. Later, until now, I have always stressed not to do the opposite. Why?
First of all, we often say "follow the trend and make an irreversible market", but who really understands this sentence? What is potential? What is the general trend? Unilateral market is the biggest trend! Can you find a bigger trend? You do it instead, which is more stupid than giving up the opportunity! ?
Is a good opportunity to turn you into a disaster! In real life, it is really hard to find a vivid metaphor to describe such stupidity. If this is not against the market, what can it be called against the market? !
Secondly, you may think that the rise or fall of the market is already very weak, so you might as well make a list against the market. The so-called "a spent force cannot penetrate the market." Having said that, it is right in theory. But in practice, you use a kind of gauze called "Lu Mao" to block the strong bow and crossbow.
Nine times out of ten, it will still be shot through. Because where is the end point, which exact point you should stand on, it is difficult to grasp. Of course, nothing is absolute. If you do see an extremely effective historical resistance, it is okay to try shorting, but you should set a stop loss. Only a firm stop loss and strict discipline are absolutely necessary in the futures market. ...
3. How to explain never losing money?
Small and broad is the essence of futures. In principle, we always make huge profits at a very small price in the futures market.
(1) Every minimum cost should be predicted in advance and strictly implemented in the process of market development. The result of such strict discipline is that you will never lose a lot of money. Every time the market goes against the trend, we can plan ahead and control it.
If we don't take the initiative to plan ahead and control the incident, then there is only one thing left to passively accept, and that is "regret afterwards."
(2) Never lose money is not only reflected in the firm implementation of each market, but also in the overall thinking of operation. For example, when making an overall profit plan, the overall risk should be a small part of the total amount of funds. I usually limit it to 20%.
Then consider how to make full use of this 20% consumable "ammunition" to win. If we resolutely implement the principle of not losing a lot of money, we will achieve half of the small and wide, that is to say, if we can't do the word "small", we can't talk about "small and wide"
You can only be "big and wide" or even "big and small". Like war, only by protecting yourself can we effectively destroy the enemy.
Protecting yourself is not about not making sacrifices, but minimizing sacrifices or maximizing the cost ratio of victory. If we can really carry out the plan ahead of time, we will minimize the loss every time. Then you have a greater macro winning rate.
Why do you say that?
(1) In the case of continuous misjudgment, or in the case that our judgment is not accurate enough, the less we lose every time we fail to make a single order, the longer we live in the market and the more opportunities we have to come back to life.
(2) In the case of mixed judgment, if each loss is less than the profit, then there must be a surplus on our books. We are on the side of victory. And the smaller the average loss, the more profit. The greater the average profit-loss ratio, the more profit.
(3) In the case of judging right and wrong, if the loss is less than the profit every time, then it must be a total victory.
4. What is the proportion of idle funds in the account and what is its significance to the whole?
In general, the funds I use for each transaction must be less than one-third of the total funds, that is to say, the available funds in my account often exceed two-thirds of the total funds. But I don't think these can be called idle funds, because they are equally important to my futures operation.
First, this part of the funds is also in my overall thinking. For example, if I buy a 30,000 yuan forward contract in an account with a total amount of100,000 yuan in a wave of market, then under normal circumstances, based on the same overall thinking, I will buy a 60,000 yuan forward contract in an account with a total amount of 200,000 yuan.
The remaining 70,000 yuan and140,000 yuan in the two accounts were also included in my overall thinking. They are all participants in the whole.
Second, they are also the main force in the campaign and the strength for us to wait patiently for the decisive battle. A good general will never put the main force in a desperate situation.
On the contrary, make it more time to rest and stand by, waiting to play a decisive role in the decisive battle at any time. The bigger the legion, the more ingenious the generals are. The less time its troops spend in combat than in non-combat, the more time they spend in preparing for combat, and the more time they spend in planning, waiting and choosing.
Thirdly, I always use these funds in several key markets to make my account close to Man Cang or even 100% Man Cang. Without the use of these funds, I could not have won a big victory. My goal of doubling the total amount of funds not only includes them, but also needs their "help" in the decisive battle of key markets.
5. Why never make small money?
A friend once told me excitedly that he made nine consecutive orders and made a profit. I asked how much profit? He said it was close to 10%.
I warned him: your profit is 1% every time, but how much risk did you take? He was stumped by me. Obviously, he never thought about it.
As a friend, I went on to say: it doesn't matter how many times you earn in the futures market, nor how much money you earn. Don't make a small fight, and don't make up more at once.
On the contrary, we should win big profits with small risks, and each profit should be enough to make up for many losses, and we must be able to see profits several times the risk every time before entering the market. Friends don't think so. A few days later, a wave of market reversed his position.
I wonder if he understood when he left. There is another meaning I didn't say: his making this list also shows that he has no firm confidence in winning Italy in the general trend. There must be a lucky rebound against the market in the profit, which is of course beneficial to the situation that sesame seeds are not exhausted and watermelon has been lost.
Doing so will naturally form the concept of sneak attack, thus giving up strategic macro-thinking and overall thinking. In fact, it is easy for you to make profit orders more than loss orders in the market, because even if it is a contrarian order, there is often a chance to make a profit in the shock (if profit orders are more than loss orders).
Even if you make profits several times in a row, it is no more difficult than sitting in the village and playing mahjong. But one thing we should not ignore is that the profit-loss ratio of mahjong games is roughly 1: 1.
Therefore, the final profit and loss is closely related to the number of "and" cards, and the number of "and" cards is the decisive factor in the final profit and loss. Originally, the futures market provided us with a place with a higher winning rate than the mahjong table.
As long as you control the profit-loss ratio according to your own wishes, you can still make money when the profit is less than the loss. It's a pity that many of us, like the protagonist in Black Humor Story, control this ratio backwards, so that when the profit is far greater than the loss, the whole army is wiped out.
In this case, if you finally leave all the lists to a farmer friend who knows nothing about futures, maybe he will say, "How can you be so stingy when you make money and so generous when you lose money?"
Of course, I can often find out the list of making small money in my hand, but this is by no means subjective and intentional, but because my understanding of the market has changed or I left in a hurry because of the general trend.
In fact, whether we like it or not, each of us will often make small money. When I say don't make small money, I mean never run global deployment and market operation for the purpose of making small money.
6. Why must profits be liberalized?
The ultimate goal of small and wide is to make big money in the market. "Leaving at the first sight of profit" not only violates the principle of "leniency", but also does not reduce the risk you take at all. Although for each time, the risk of this time disappears with the solution of this time, you will immediately fall into another risk.
If the market goes against the trend, can it make up for the previous profits? Are you taking more risks? But you're taking risks for petty profits, and you're taking sesame seeds from the tiger's mouth. You have the courage to go into the lion's den, but you are only picking up petty gains again and again, not a hero, but a fool.
If Yang Zirong risked his life to break into the bandits' den just to have a hundred chickens dinner, is he still an admirable hero? Those who seize valuable treasures in the jaws of death according to careful plans are wise and brave.
7. What kind of profit target should be set?
On the whole, I think the profit target should be set at 65438+ 000% of the total deposit-only when the principal can be recovered can we win. Then, we should regard every battle as a decisive battle, otherwise, it may become a decisive battle at any time with the development of the situation. The goal is to achieve global victory or lay the foundation for global victory.
Of course, it also includes reducing losses if you lose, so as not to affect the overall situation and not to be wiped out at one time. Of course, we can't stubbornly wait for the market to develop towards our goal with expectations, just don't always end up making profits hastily, just like picking up a wallet for nothing and fearing that the owner will get it back.
Every profit is not picked up for nothing. We pay the price of risk, and we are willing to take the risk of being hurt by tigers. With this understanding, we will use our patience and wisdom to win the biggest profit while ensuring safety (with a certain surplus).
8. Why is winning 100% a victory?
Of course, this is not absolute, it's just my more personal way of thinking. The first thing I see is the ubiquitous risks in the futures market. In fact, even if you don't leave, 200% profit is only temporary. 100% is said because:
(1) At this time, you can withdraw the principal and return to the initial investment state. In this case, the principal is no longer risky, and the profitable part is fighting, which is already a great victory.
(2) I always set a goal in advance to make a profit of 100% for customers, and then come to an end temporarily. The risks in the futures market are infinite. Your profit can only explain the present and today, but not the future and tomorrow, although you are constantly making profits and the momentum is excellent.
So I always set profit targets in advance and settle accounts with customers. There are two other reasons:
(1) I think it is better to set profit targets than time targets.
(2) Everyone can't be in good condition forever. At this point, futures, like sports, is an industry that needs to be devoted to it. Your mental and physical condition is not only cyclical, but also fluctuates with your mood.
In the case of great profits, the mentality is easy to change, and no one can avoid customs, while the trader's mentality is calm and peaceful. Therefore, it is extremely necessary to adjust the mentality in time after reaching a certain profit target. End the past, and then it will be a new beginning. We should start from scratch, forget the past and meet new challenges.
9. Why should the profit target of every wave of market be 80% of this market?
I said "the profit target of 80% per market". Someone asked why it was not 100%. Of course, everyone wants to make things more perfect, buying the lowest and selling the highest. But which is the highest and which is the lowest?
We won't know until the market is over. We can only estimate that a certain point is the highest and lowest point in the market development process. Occasionally, we may be right, and this contingency does not exceed a few percent. If we leave according to this possible contingency.
I don't know how many quotes I often miss. If I calculate from the highest point in Big bounce, the market will rise by 20% and then leave at a profit. It seems that the profit is 20% less in theory (only in theory), but how much will it take to get out of a strong market before there is a decent callback?
You often win a huge profit space for yourself with a natural and unrestrained attitude of "profiting" at any time. Generally speaking, it must be "not worth the loss."
Looking back, how many traders who sold at the "high point" that just appeared at that time regretted missing the big market? We can't judge which is the highest point, although new high points keep appearing in a round of rebound.
However, during the callback, we can count whether it has been adjusted back by 20% on the basis of the last high point, and whether it is time for us to leave for shipment. This is exactly what we can see and operate. So why choose 20% instead of 10% or 30%? This is not absolute, just an experience.
However, when selecting the proportion, the following two points should be met:
(1) The market is always volatile. Don't be scared by the slight vibration and jump out of the car to escape, and miss the opportunity to make big money. To do this, we must be psychologically prepared to give up a few percentage points. This percentage point obviously cannot be too small.
(2) ensure that most of the profits cannot be lost in vain. To do this, this ratio obviously cannot be too large. Of course, you should concentrate on raising the appearance price with the increase of the high point during the callback, and pay close attention to the proportion and momentum of the callback during the callback in order to do better and more reasonable.
10, why do you say that it is luck for the futures market to make money for three consecutive days, and everyone can do it?
I mean, it is not mysterious to make a profit in the futures market. Because there are only two trends in the market, up or down, a list may be 50% in the right direction. It is not too difficult to make a single order every day and make a profit for three consecutive days. It is no more difficult than playing mahjong and sitting in three villages. It's just that you can't do it in every village. It takes a little luck.
1 1. Why is it wise to make money in the futures market for three months?
According to my experience, newcomers to the market always face more adaptation problems. It is very valuable for them to persist for a month without hurting the muscles and bones. In such a fierce market, if you can make profits for three months in a row, it will be extraordinary.
I believe there must be something different about you. Perhaps it is a keen intuition and accurate judgment, perhaps it is a more reasonable allocation of funds. In short, you are not confused by instinct or fighting against the market. You must have some thinking and use some rational wisdom.
12. Why is wisdom not enough?
Because the perennial struggle relies on trading techniques, including: the changing law of single quantity with the change of market, the regular profit-loss ratio set in advance for each wave of market, and the fund allocation method that follows certain rules according to a certain proportion.
Because these are not only testing our wisdom, but also testing our firm confidence and strict discipline in strictly implementing the rational conclusions crystallized from these wisdom. So I call it manipulation.
If you are still making profits for more than one year, you must have a desirable trading technology-strict discipline, flexible and rational trading technology as your consistent backing. Because the wisdom of each of us is limited, there is no infinite wisdom.
Moreover, this limited wisdom is also influenced by our physical condition, psychological condition, biological cycle and other variables. We can't be like a machine, like a market that is always efficient, and we don't expose our weaknesses from beginning to end.
However, we can use our rationality to formulate effective methods and rules that we will use in the market, so that we can make fewer mistakes and show more rationality in the market.
I can't guarantee that your rationality will definitely make you money, but if you play in the market for a year, you will still make a profit. Then I can guarantee that you have a certain reasonable operation method and strict market discipline. Don't be proud, keep making progress and have great potential.
13, why do we say that there are many quotations that we can't understand?
But that doesn't mean you shouldn't do it? Kant said that what we know is only the appearance of the world, only the phenomenal world. As the essence of things, that is, "things themselves", we can't know it. What interests me is that he made us realize the limitations of human understanding seriously and calmly.
This awareness of the futures market is very accurate and helps us to think. For example, do we really know whether the market will go up or down every time? Do you really know what is the final factor that determines every rise and fall?
Is it the relationship between supply and demand in the market or the arbitrary speculation of large households? Market supply and demand are determined by several reasons. Is there another unknown factor? Which Lian Heng, which joined the company, controlled the big family? Is it because the opposite funds defected and one side won by luck?
Because there are too many major events, their development trends are determined by accidents. Even if we have extraordinary logical thinking and rational thinking ability, even if we are as wise as Einstein, can we certainly analyze and recognize these accidents and the general trends determined by these accidents? The answer is obviously no.
Based on this understanding, we should not always 100% trust our own judgment like Zhuge Liang in the play (only in the play, the real Zhuge Liang is much more mediocre) and stubbornly do not make second-hand preparations. It must be clear that many markets are actually beyond our understanding.
But why can we expand most of the market? First, we can consider doing it with 70% confidence. Because in this way, nine times out of ten, you can win, and you will win with a high probability. Second, the profit-loss ratio can be above 3: 1.
Because after three times, it won't lose money. Of course, it is more ideal to have both. We should also try to find such opportunities and improve the winning rate. Third, you can follow the trend, go against the trend, and immediately go out and wait and see. This is also in line with the principle of reasonable arrangement of risk-return ratio.
14. Why is the market analysis and judgment of the right and wrong of the ups and downs not necessarily the final decision?
More and more people keep asking me what I think of the current wave of market, but few people ask me how to prepare for this wave of market and what are my two ideas. "Simple right or wrong judgment is not necessarily the final decision" is what I said in view of the above situation.
First of all, if the outcome is only determined by the ups and downs, then the outcome of flipping a coin is about 50%. Obviously, there are other factors that affect the outcome of the futures market. For example, how to deal with it after determining whether you are right or wrong, and how to increase or decrease the amount of each item.
15. Why can't you short near the daily limit and do more near the daily limit?
If the price of the day is close to the daily limit, it means that the rise of the day is strong. Isn't it against the market to crack down on empty orders? Even if the big trend is bearish for a long time, it is not appropriate to do it against the short trend. If the general trend is also bearish, then you are double the operation against the market.
Going against the market, but committing suicide? The most important thing is that there is always the danger of being caught up in the daily limit near the daily limit! On the contrary, it is also true near the daily limit.
Even if you have good reason to be bearish, you should short the order at a price far away from the daily limit, or do it the next day, otherwise you risk being detained at the daily limit. Then, your stop-loss strategy, your idea of being small and broad, has become a laughing stock on paper in an instant! It is easy to understand that you don't short in the daily limit, but do more in the daily limit. Use an image metaphor, because it is purely a collision.
So, short near the daily limit and long near the daily limit? That's teasing the enemy within the effective range of his gun! It's like walking in the dense jungle!
16. What do you think of short trading and long trading?
As for some people who are short on the daily limit and long on the daily limit, that is the stupidest thing in the futures market! What does the daily limit mean? Take the spot as an analogy, that is to say, all the goods sold that day were snapped up, and there was an endless shopping queue behind.
They have to wait until tomorrow to try at a higher price. At this time, you take out the only inventory at home and sell it at a price that no one wants to sell that day. I really don't know if you are out of kindness or out of your mind.
The daily limit means that no one wants to buy the lowest price allowed by the market on that day, and sellers who want to sell at a lower price have to wait until tomorrow according to regulations.
People at this price think like garbage, but you can't throw away the goods. You just go to the market and buy them at a price that no one will pay. Do you have a unique eye for treasures that can be extracted from garbage?
Even so, you can buy it at a lower price the next day! Do you know that you are glad that the person who threw garbage at you laughed behind your back? You are a fool! Of course, there are really examples of buying at the daily limit by accident and the market doing the opposite the next day to make money.
But what percentage can this account for? Is it worth emulating? Small and wide should also be reflected in probability! We should strive for small probability with big probability. Imagine, if we hold ten sell orders on the daily limit every time, how many times will we make a profit? 100 times, how many times will it not lose money?
17. How do you think that some people make profits by shorting the daily limit?
The profit statement I mentioned earlier is not necessarily a good statement. Is this the best negative textbook? This is the most smelly profit list on the market, and there is a great danger behind it. If you are a customer, if you are lucky, this is the first order made by the brokerage firm for you (I am afraid that you will be kicked out of the market after the second order), then I advise you: replace him immediately and drive him away. Because he is a person who returns money to the market for nothing!
18, do you mean that you can make money by making empty orders several times according to the pros and cons of coin toss?
Yes, but don't take this as frivolous remarks. Listen to me from the beginning: my earliest contact with futures was 1993.
The first set of books I bought was a set of five books, and my earliest futures knowledge came from this book. It is a very common book that introduces the basic knowledge of futures, but a story in the book left a deep impression on me.
It is said that an American makes multiple orders and empty orders every day according to the quality of coin toss in the futures market. After a year, he not only lost money, but also made a profit. People call him Mr. Wonder.
The shadow of Mr. Wonder has been haunting my mind. But it took me two years to really understand the mystery. In fact, as long as the method is proper, everyone can become Mr. Magic. What kind of method? First of all, Mr. Magic doesn't have to enter the market immediately after flipping a coin, but first find effective support and resistance. After the order is given, he will stop and leave immediately.
If you do it right, let go of the profits, so that each profit can at least make up for more than two losses. Secondly, you can also use the different weights of each position to improve the overall winning rate.
Third, it can be free from external interference. It is better to keep the order rate basically at 50% than those who chase up and kill orders below 50%. Our judgment is always influenced by our own physiology and psychology.
It may be ok when it is in good condition, but it is not as accurate as coins when it is in bad condition. Looking back at some lists that have just been made, people often feel that his list is far less than 50%.
Fourth, the most important thing is that making a list is not the most important thing, but the way to deal with the list is the key to winning or losing. I think, Mr. Magic must be a master of dealing with orders, with bold skills, and he can enter the market with a natural and unrestrained attitude from outsiders. Others can't understand Guan Qiao and laugh at it.
In fact, he understands the meaning of futures more deeply than those who laugh at him!
19, how to understand that futures are like football and war?
The futures market is very unique. In my opinion, only football and war are somewhat similar to it. First of all, it looks like war! First of all, futures is the most intense money battlefield in the world. Every time it is like a war, it is a fierce hand-to-hand battle.
Secondly, every time is a new challenge, a new beginning, and the previous excellent results can't help you at all. You must go all out to accept new challenges. Your previous failures cannot be doomed to failure this time.
Third, the victory of the whole war is made up of countless battles, large and small. We can win the war, but we can never win all the battles, and even some battles we must give up voluntarily.
Fourth, the real decisive battle may be once or twice. Even if you can't win these two times, you must never fight stubbornly and lead to the annihilation of the whole army. (The premise is that the goal of victory is profit 100%. Besides, like football, miracles can happen at any time, and disasters can happen at any time.
For every specific time, no matter how strong the team is, it may fail, and no matter how weak the team is, it may win. Failure is inevitable, and the final king just wins more and loses less, or wins a crucial game.
20. Why is the level better from the list of losing money?
Just as we can better see a person's character from his mistakes, we can also better see his level from his loss list? Why?
First of all, the first essence of futures is to control risks. You can see how his risk is controlled from the loss list. This is gambling. Let go? Is it safe and calm? Still working hard and passionate? Is it a global strategy? Or desperate street fighting?
Secondly, we can see from the list which market segment he lost money in. Is this a market worth fighting for? Is it homeopathic or contrarian? Is it active and determined to stop loss, or is passive funds unable to support it, or is it a psychological collapse and a hasty withdrawal in the fierce market ups and downs?