"This is an inspiring poem, and this spirit is worth quoting in all walks of life, especially the words" tempering and bitter cold ",which really tell the" low valley and pain point "of all walks of life. Only through such baptism can it really smell fragrant, and in the same way, it can enjoy the" rise "of the second brother and accept the" fall "of the second brother. Otherwise, you wouldn't be so bad now, so, no matter what happens now, please just hold your horses, calm down, don't regret your decision, spend the "cold winter" of pig prices indifferently, and eventually you will have a bright future.
We often say that "it never rains but it pours". When the pig price is depressed, we don't say that the feed cost for pigs is also rising one after another. At present, besides wheat and corn, the price of soybean meal, which is also used as feed raw materials, is also running at a high level. Before the Russian-Ukrainian incident, the price of soybean meal has increased significantly due to factors such as the drastic reduction of soybean production in South America caused by dry weather. After the Russian-Ukrainian incident, it has even boosted the prevalence of this trend. Consider.
On the whole, the factors that push up food prices mainly include four aspects: one is that the COVID-19 epidemic has impacted the global supply and raised the cost of food trade, thus raising the price; Second, countries have adopted quantitative easing monetary policy, and global excess liquidity has triggered global inflation, boosting the rising prices of commodities such as grain; Third, speculation in the grain futures market intensifies the rise in food prices; Fourth, the recent events in Russia and Ukraine have led to changes in the relationship between supply and demand, affecting the pattern of grain, and then affecting corn and soybean meal at the feed end.
However, as the impact of a series of uncertain factors on the market gradually fades, and other countries increase supply under the price stimulus, it is expected that food prices will gradually stabilize.
In fact, there is no necessary relationship between feed price fluctuation and downstream pig price fluctuation, but it only plays an indirect role.
because the operation of pig price follows the logic of "pig cycle", just like the current increase in feed raw materials, it has not affected the downward trend of pig price at all. Under the dual factors of "two days of ice and fire", farmers are under great pressure, and at the same time, due to the recent epidemic situation, some farmers have some problems in feed transportation. In order to avoid the interruption of livestock production and supply caused by transportation problems, relevant departments have issued announcements one after another to make every effort to ensure the smooth production and transportation of livestock and poultry.
according to industry analysts, it is difficult to reverse the fundamentals of market supply and demand, and the pig price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. However, the central government will soon start the third round of frozen pork purchasing and storage this year, and the epidemic situation will be gradually controlled, and the market consumption will improve. It is expected that there will be limited room for the downward trend of pig prices. At the same time, the cold winter in the industry is conducive to accelerating the production capacity of pigs, and a new cycle is expected to come soon. I hope that you will usher in the "dark period" of the industry.
According to the systematic monitoring of pig price, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 2, fell by 5 and fell by 19, with stable areas accounting for 73% of all the monitored, and the overall pig market was in a "stable middle and weak decline" trend.
(data source: pig price system)
On the whole, the pig market today has improved to some extent compared with yesterday, and some areas have also shown a small rebound. However, considering that the fundamentals of loose supply in the domestic market are difficult to improve, and consumption is gradually entering a cyclical off-season, the pig price does not have the basis to rise against the trend in the short term, so it is recommended that farmers should look a little further.
According to the wholesale price of white striped pigs in Beijing and Shanghai, the open-pound price of white striped pigs in Beijing and Shanghai wholesale markets showed a steady trend, while the open-pound price in Beijing market remained stable and the market trading enthusiasm was poor. The average transaction price in the Shanghai market is rising, with the average price in some markets rising by .15-.25 yuan/kg. The price of white bars in the wholesale market is rising steadily, and the market is affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, so the transaction uncertainties are obvious.
according to the purchasing difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the purchasing difficulty of slaughter enterprises has increased, the enthusiasm of farmers in the north is weak, the purchasing difficulty of slaughter enterprises at low prices has increased, the purchasing smoothness of slaughter enterprises in the south is good, some enterprises have a wait-and-see mood, the whole market is affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the pig transportation in the northeast is restricted, some traders have a certain bullish mood, the pig prices of a few breeding groups in the north are rising, and the pig prices of breeding groups in the south continue to run weakly.
Market trend of live pig prices tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent factors in the pig market, it is expected that the price of live pigs will show a phenomenon of "big stability and small adjustment" tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the pig market and grasp the market dynamics.