Pig industry concept stocks have daily limit in batches. Why? Let me talk about my opinion. First of all, futures have no guiding significance for pig farms. Then, this year's pig crash may be mainly caused by the epidemic. In fact, the demand has not decreased, but the transportation cost has increased because of transportation problems. Generally speaking, this year's country still has to find a way to digest most of its stocks. Due to the pessimistic attitude towards the market, pig farmers' associations in various countries have a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards this year's breeding. The surge in feed is probably due to insufficient production, transportation and supply of raw materials during the epidemic. Generally speaking, there are two ways: the first way is to gamble and raise some in batches. Our epidemic situation is well controlled, and domestic demand will continue to open. Imported pork is facing obstacles, and local supply will become the mainstream. However, limited by the epidemic disease feed, the risks and benefits will not be maximized. Second, raise more sows and boars and raise them according to the idea of selling piglets in August. It is almost certain that the selling price of piglets will soar in August and September. At the same time, the time difference is calculated to ensure that a large number of live pigs will be slaughtered in September to seize the market. There is also to ensure the stock, it is estimated that there will be subsidies, and the amount is large.
The plunge in pig futures is a sharp increase in the number of live pigs, and the expected increase in shipments exceeds demand. The soaring feed price is a sharp increase in the number of live pigs, and the more you eat, the more in short supply, so it is crazy. I wonder if I can make any money. Ask farmers, do you know that you should make a profit at this stage? Moreover, raising pigs should be profitable. Because the futures contract is in September, there are still half a year until now, when a large number of pigs will be listed. Futures contracts are priced in 30 yuan when they are listed. Although it is lower than the current wholesale price of 35.6 yuan, the price in September is still relatively high. Therefore, the decline in these two days is normal. The second is that the current feed price is rising, and the cost pressure is there. It is reasonable to say that it will not fall so hard. The reason for the decline is that some pig companies have short arbitrage in it, in order to hedge the losses caused by rising feed and falling meat prices in the future.