As of the close this afternoon, the main contract of industrial silicon futures, SI2308, was 17060 yuan/ton, down 1480 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7.98%. In terms of positions, 7629 lots were held, an increase of 29 19 lots compared with yesterday. In addition, SI2309, SI23 10, SI23 1 1 and SI23 12 contracts are down by 7.99%, 7.99%, 7.87% and 7.99% respectively.
According to the data of Guangzhou Stock Exchange, the total trading volume of industrial silicon options on the first day was 3,720 lots, with a turnover of 1, 803.7 1, 000 yuan and a position of 1, 932 lots.
For the market performance of industrial silicon futures the next day, industry insiders analyzed that under the expectation of weak supply and demand, market sentiment boosted industrial silicon futures to fall sharply. At the same time, due to the small scale of industrial silicon futures in the initial stage of listing, funds are more vulnerable to market sentiment interference.
In addition, on the first day of listing, the transactions and positions of industrial silicon options were concentrated on the option contract with the 2308 futures contract as the target, and the spot price of industrial silicon continued to fall. Today, the price of industrial silicon futures fluctuates in the same direction, and the implied volatility of options increases. The price of industrial silicon option accurately reflects the fluctuation of futures price, which lays a foundation for the follow-up enterprises in the industry to participate in risk management by using industrial silicon option.
The futures market fell the next day.
According to the data of Guangzhou Institute, the trading volume of all listed contracts of industrial silicon futures was 3 1.900 lots the next day, and the positions climbed to 9954 lots.
In early trading today, the Si2308 contract, the main industrial silicon futures, opened lower at 18 180 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the previous day was 183 10 yuan/ton. Then the shock weakened, hitting the daily limit in the afternoon and finally closing at 17060 yuan/ton.
In addition, the contract closing prices of SI2309, SI23 10, si231kloc-0/2 are 17095.00 yuan/ton, 17040.00 yuan/ton and 65438 respectively.
For today's market trend, the special commodity group of Guangfa Futures Research Institute analyzed that from the price structure, the prices of SI2309, SI23 10, SI23 1 1 weakened in turn, showing a reverse market structure, similar to other colored varieties. The main reason is that the southwest region is in the rainy season from August to June, and the expected supply of the market increases.
"The price of SI23 12 is relatively firm. Due to the dry season in southwest China from June to February in 5438, the supply is expected to decrease. At the same time, the warehouse receipt needs to be cancelled before June 30, 1 1, or the delivery resources are tight in the off-season, and the arbitrage pressure is small. " The above research group said.
On the whole, since the listing, the trend of industrial silicon futures is empty. From a fundamental point of view, the research group believes that although the supply side of industrial silicon has been disturbed frequently this year, the industry has maintained a high operating rate and abundant supply under the stimulation of profits, while the downstream demand in silicone this year has been affected by weak real estate and overseas demand, and consumption has been weak; Although there are more new polysilicon production capacity, it is generally expected that the drop in polysilicon price will delay the demand for installed capacity and slow down the release of orders, which will have limited boosting effect on demand.
In addition, today's industrial varieties generally closed down, and the market sentiment was empty. At the same time, at present, the total number of industrial silicon contract transactions is about 30,000 lots, and the market scale is low, so the funds are easily disturbed by market sentiment.
The option runs smoothly on the first day of listing.
Following the listing of industrial silicon futures on February 22, 65438, industrial silicon options were also listed and traded on the Guangzhou Stock Exchange on February 23. On the first day of listing, the industrial silicon options market was running smoothly, and the market function was initially reflected.
According to the trading situation of industrial silicon futures on the previous day, today's industrial silicon options are listed in five series with a total of 244 lots. At the close, the trading volume of call options and put options were 2,382 and 1338 respectively, and the positions were 1 167 and 765 respectively, accounting for 1 1.67% of the underlying futures trading volume.
"The first batch of listed industrial silicon option contracts are based on five industrial silicon futures contracts listed and traded yesterday, and the exercise price is 16200-20800 yuan/ton, covering a wide range. Even in the case of large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are still provided with hypothetical options and real options for trading; The exercise price range is 200 yuan/ton, accounting for more than 65,438+0% of the current industrial silicon ton price, which provides sufficient differentiation and facilitates investors to make decisions and transactions according to their own needs. " Lou Zailiang, head of the China-Thailand Futures Research Institute, said.
In his view, on the first day of listing, the trading and positions of industrial silicon options were concentrated on the option contract with the 2308 futures contract as the target, and the spot price of industrial silicon continued to fall. Today, the price of industrial silicon futures fluctuates in the same direction, and the implied volatility of options increases. The price of industrial silicon options has made an accurate response to the fluctuation of futures prices, laying a foundation for the follow-up enterprises in the industry to participate in risk management by using industrial silicon options.
Meet the needs of refined and personalized risk management in the industrial chain.
In recent years, due to the dual control of energy consumption, the rising cost of raw materials, the rapid development of photovoltaic industry and other factors, the price of industrial silicon fluctuates greatly. With the listing of industrial silicon futures options, market participants said that the listing of industrial silicon options can improve the price formation mechanism of industrial silicon, enrich the risk management tools of industrial enterprises, give play to the function of refined risk management of options, and bring the functions of futures options and two products into play together to form a joint force of market risk management.
Tang Lei, general manager of Shanghai Zhengdong Futures, believes that from the perspective of capital market development, the listing of industrial silicon options provides investors with a new asset allocation tool, which is conducive to improving the investor structure in the derivatives market. Because of the high professionalism of option investment, it can attract more professional institutional investors to participate, bring more liquidity to the futures market and strengthen the thickness and activity of the market.
Li Binbin, deputy general manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Financial Innovation Headquarters, told the reporter that on the first day of trading today, market makers actively quoted prices to provide liquidity, and the fluctuation trend was stable throughout the day. The listing and reasonable pricing of industrial silicon options can better meet the refined and personalized risk management needs of industrial silicon industry chain enterprises and help the futures market better serve the real economy.
As for the late performance of industrial silicon price, the aforementioned research group believes that in terms of supply, the power overhaul and electricity price increase in Southwest China, the shutdown of enterprises increased at the end of the month, the supply decreased, the production cost rose to 1.8 million yuan/ton, and the downward space of industrial silicon price was limited. Downstream, demand is expected to improve in the first and second quarters of next year, but short-term demand is in a vacuum period, and short-term demand is weak and difficult to change.
"At present, the price of industrial silicon has fallen below the cost line, and the risk of short-term chasing is greater. After the market sentiment is released, you can refer to the production cost in Southwest China in August next year, about 16500 yuan, and consider doing more. " The research team said.