Although overseas financial centers have been planning to launch Chinese mainland stock index futures for a long time, the news that Brunei International Exchange (IBX) is about to launch "China Unified Index" stock index futures still attracts market attention. It can be predicted that Brunei's "China Unified Index" stock index futures will become an important indicator for world investors to inspect China's stock price and an important way to participate in China's stock market, and will have a great impact on the Asian financial structure in many aspects. (When the rise is going on: How big is the post-holiday market? )
Transfer funds to China stock market.
Strong market demand is the objective basis for Brunei to launch "China Unified Index" stock index futures. Brunei launched the "China Unified Index" stock index futures, which first opened the door for a large number of international funds seeking to enter the China A-share market but not allowed. It will take some time for RMB to be fully convertible under capital account, but the threshold for China to introduce QFII is still high, which makes a large number of international financial market funds optimistic about investment opportunities in China A-share market banned. The introduction of overseas stock index futures meets the demand of direct investment in China A-share market. In fact, even after the China stock market is fully opened, considering the supervision and transaction costs of the mainland market, the Brunei market may still be attractive to international speculative funds. Analyze the real purpose of mainstream funds and find the best profit opportunities! )
Brunei's "China Unified Index" stock index futures will also attract some international funds that have entered the China A-share market. Stock index futures is one of the most dynamic risk management tools in the financial market. QFII entering China A-share market will inevitably generate demand for risk management tools such as stock index futures. The introduction of overseas stock index futures provides QFII with a tool to avoid the risk of China stock market, which will inevitably lead to QFII's active participation. Of course, the existence of overseas stock index futures as a hedging tool is also conducive to cultivating QFII to actively invest in the domestic A-share market, improving the efficiency of the use of funds, and does not rule out attracting more funds into the China A-share market. This is also the positive effect of overseas stock index futures on China A-share market where stock index futures are absent at present.
Brunei's "China Unified Index" stock index futures may also trigger some stock capital outflows in China's domestic stock market. Due to the lack of short-selling mechanism such as stock index futures, the general profit model of China stock market at this stage is that it can only make money in the bull market. From 20065438+0 to 2003, the A-share market in China was deeply adjusted and fluctuated greatly, especially when the stock market operated unilaterally. After investors enter the market, the risk is great, which seriously dampens investors' confidence in participating. Under this circumstance, some private funds began to turn to overseas investment varieties such as Hong Kong stocks. Brunei's "China Unified Index" stock index futures can be traded in two directions, which has no information disadvantage for speculative funds familiar with China A-share market, and the learning cost is very low, which is undoubtedly attractive.
Intensify competition between domestic and foreign exchanges
The introduction of China Unified Index Stock Index Futures is Brunei's subjective desire to enhance the competitiveness of the Exchange in the international market. At present, the competition for developing new varieties in the international futures market is very fierce. Everyone has seized the commanding heights of the market, improved the country's position in the international capital market, made a lot of international hot money flow to their own countries, and at the same time gave themselves a greater say in the formation mechanism of international prices, thus being in a favorable position in international competition. Stock index futures are open, free and cross-regional because they take stock index as the subject matter and do not involve specific stock delivery. In recent years, the opening of stock index futures with overseas indexes as the subject matter has become an important means of international financial center competition, and it is also common in the world to launch domestic stock index futures by overseas exchanges.
When international financial centers pay more and more attention to the competition and control of index resources, China is facing the pressure of international competition to develop stock index futures. Exchanges in the United States, Singapore and Hong Kong have long attached great importance to China's stock index futures. As early as 2002, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange launched the Morgan Free China Index. SGX also plans to launch China index futures. This time, Brunei, which is not well-known in the international financial market, is pushing the "China Unified Index" stock index futures, aiming at making full use of China concept derivatives to activate the transactions of the Brunei International Exchange (IBX) and enhance the market competitiveness. What is certain is that Brunei's "China Unified Index" stock index futures will naturally not be the last overseas Chinese stock index futures.
The conditions for the listing of stock index futures in China have been basically met, and the official launch of stock index futures can be said to be only a matter of policy timing. Although the Brunei International Exchange (IBX) does not have great international influence, it has seized the opportunity and taken the lead. We still need to pay attention to the challenges brought by this international financial market. If we don't seize the opportunity, we just "plunder" and lag behind other more influential exchanges in the development of stock index futures, which may put domestic exchanges in a very unfavorable passive situation in the future competition. It can be predicted that in the future, the fierce competition between domestic exchanges and overseas exchanges such as Brunei International Exchange (IBX) will be launched in many aspects, such as stock index selection, margin ratio, trading commission, membership management and information disclosure requirements.
Causing speculative arbitrage and illegal behavior
Triggering cross-market speculative arbitrage and illegal activities is a potential worry for Brunei to launch "China Unified Index" stock index futures. For the China Unified Index stock index futures launched by Brunei, the China Securities Regulatory Commission is most worried about the possible differences in regulatory standards, which will give market speculators an opportunity-speculators may have the opportunity to choose a party with looser supervision, such as Brunei's China Unified Index futures index, to hedge or even manipulate the mainland stock market from a long distance and gain speculative income. This potential risk will increase with China's increasingly open A-share market, and will be more serious during the currency and economic crisis. Therefore, the China Securities Regulatory Commission needs to communicate with Brunei's financial regulatory authorities on the standards for monitoring the spot and futures markets in the two places, so as to prevent investors from evading supervision through overseas trading.
China's stock index is somewhat different from other countries. These differences are very important for selecting indexes when developing stock index futures, especially at present, the circulating market value only accounts for about one third of the total market value. On the one hand, when starting stock index futures, you can only choose the index weighted by tradable shares, but you can't use the index weighted by total equity including non-tradable shares. On the other hand, the existence of a large number of non-tradable shares makes the evaluation of the investment value of stocks appear certain deviation, thus causing the imbalance of stock prices. If full circulation is realized, these non-tradable shares will be lifted (this is a matter of time), which will definitely have a greater impact on the stock price. This will not only affect the reaction degree of the index to the overall price, but more importantly, it will cause severe abnormal fluctuations in the stock index futures price, giving people an opportunity. Considering that it will be a long process to realize the full circulation of A-share market, many changes in the economic situation and policy operation during this period may lead to speculation and arbitrage in different degrees in domestic and foreign markets.