The so-called PVC futures are futures contracts with PVC as the subject matter. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is an important organic synthetic material in China. Its products have good physical and chemical properties and are widely used in industry, construction, agriculture, daily life, packaging, electricity, public utilities and other fields. According to product classification, PVC belongs to synthetic resins among the three major synthetic materials (synthetic resin, synthetic fiber and synthetic rubber (information and market)), including five general resins, namely polyethylene PE, polyvinyl chloride PVC, polypropylene PP, polystyrene PS and ABS resin.

What are the influencing factors of PVC futures price?

1, changes in supply and demand situation

The impact of supply and demand changes on the PVC market mainly includes

Supplier: shutdown and maintenance, start-up of new devices, changes in import volume; Policy production reduction and factory accidents in petrochemical industry

Demand side: downstream product production and low demand peak season. Spring and autumn every year: construction peak season.

Export changes: raw materials and products. The low threshold of downstream industries leads to a large surplus of processing capacity, desalination of peak season, early extension of production cycle, and meager profits of downstream processing industries; Vicious competition leads to the decline of product quality, and the prevalence of counterfeit and shoddy products affects the enthusiasm for use.

2. Changes in raw material prices (calcium carbide, vinyl chloride monomer /EDC).

3. Fluctuations in the international crude oil market

Cost conduction: crude oil is one of the main raw materials of PVC, crude oil-naphtha-ethylene-vinyl chloride -PVC.

When the oil price is relatively stable or fluctuates slightly, it has little impact on the PVC market, and the impact on the cost of PVC is mainly reflected in ethylene (vinyl chloride).

The change of cost advantage: the comparative advantage of oil price and calcium carbide price

Cost balance point: oil price 50 USD/barrel VS calcium carbide 3000 RMB/ton.

Oil prices affect the mentality of market participants.

4. Changes in national policies

Export tax rebate, processing trade restrictions, affecting exports

Import tariff reduction: 6.5%

Restricted use: water supply pipeline, food packaging.

Dumping and anti-dumping: PVC: September 2003, Taiwan Province Province, Japan, South Korea and the United States, etc. Turkey in 2006, India in 2007, South Africa and Brazil in 2008.

Products: plastic (1 1370, 165.00, 1.47%) products such as pipes, profiles, packaging films, packaging bags, toys, lighting, etc.

Financial policy: expected annualized interest rate and exchange rate changes

Starting water injection of pump

The rise of trade protectionism

5. Macroeconomic situation (building materials and real estate, automobile market)

If the macroeconomic situation is good, the demand and consumption of PVC will be good, and the market price will be ideal. Otherwise, it will be worse.

6. RMB exchange rate

7. Transportation and natural disasters

8. Export situation