Judging from the recent price performance of soda ash, from the accelerated decline in late March to the stabilization in early April and the acceleration in late April, the price of soda ash showed a "roller coaster" market. Looking back at the characteristics of soda ash price in the current market, can the follow-up actions continue to achieve good results after it has been released for four consecutive years? What changes have taken place in the fundamentals behind soda recently? As of Thursday, April 29th, 20021year, the main contract of soda ash futures 09 was 2045 won, up by 2.20%.

If the construction continues to improve, the risk of rising will further increase.

It is reported that in terms of soda supply, Hangzhou Longshan chemical equipment has recently returned to normal, and the current daily output is about 1 10,000 tons. At present, the utilization rate of domestic soda plants has increased to 84.94%. The spot market has not changed for the time being, the price is firm, shopping is general, and the inventory of individual enterprises has increased. In addition, according to Baichuan's statistics, the total domestic soda production capacity is 33.86 million tons, and the equipment operation capacity is 28.35 million tons. The overall utilization rate of the industry is 83.73%, up 2. 14% from last week.

As of April 22nd, the total inventory of soda enterprises was 776,900 tons, up 3.35% from last week. The Longshan plant in Hangzhou will return to normal next week, the comprehensive production of synthetic ammonia in Yunnan will continue, and the total start-up load will continue to increase compared with this week. Therefore, the price of soda ash has a strong upward trend in the short term, but the hidden dangers on the supply side are gradually coming, leading to skyrocketing or limited high.

As the raw material of glass, soda ash is mainly related to the downstream float glass industry. The output of float glass shows obvious cyclical characteristics, which comes from the sale and completion of commercial housing. More than 70% float glass is basically used in the real estate market, so the demand is often between the sale and completion of commercial housing. Relevant data show that in recent years, the proportion of commercial housing sales has steadily increased to the current 86%, and it generally takes 1.5 ~ 3 years for commercial housing to be completed, so the year-on-year index of commercial housing sales is gradually ahead of glass production. Last year, after the glass demand in the real estate industry cooled down due to infectious diseases, it ushered in a strong recovery expectation, injecting soda ash demand groups or continuing to make profits.

Judging from other news, at present, downstream users have a strong sense of resistance to high prices, a strong wait-and-see mood, and low purchasing enthusiasm. In the short term, the market is weak, but in the second quarter, the alkali plant is expected to be overhauled, and the demand for photovoltaics will be increased subsequently. With the advancement of related infrastructure fields, the demand for soda ash in the later period attracts people's attention.

Based on these viewpoints, it can be seen that the soda ash market is currently driven by its own demand side and the bull market speed of glass prices, and the mayor/market speculation atmosphere is consistent, which is welcoming a sharp rebound and is expected to appear in the short term, or it is still empty. However, considering that the hidden dangers of suppliers have not been eliminated, the downstream acquisition of high prices is still insufficient, and the height of re-emergence may be limited.