1. As mentioned above, under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international food prices have been rising continuously, especially in Ukraine, which is known as the "granary of Europe". At the beginning of 2022, there was once a backlog of 25 million tons of corn that could not be exported, and a large amount of grain backlog in Ukraine will not only continue to affect global food prices, but also drive up domestic corn prices.
Two, the official vigorously promote the implementation of "soybean corn belt compound planting" technology. Because China's soybean dependence on foreign countries is as high as 80%, in 2022, the No.1 Document of the Central Committee proposed "expanding soybeans and expanding oil crops", which not only increased soybean planting area, but also increased soybean subsidies. On the contrary, the soybean planting area increased and the corn planting area decreased slightly.
Third, the higher wheat price drives the high corn price. As a substitute for corn, the higher the price of wheat, the less the feed for wheat, and the more the feed demand for corn.
Fourth, imported corn shows a decreasing trend. Official data show that the international corn price is high, and traders are discouraged. In 2022, the corn import volume of China is expected to be180,000 tons, which will be 654.38+00% lower than that of 2026.5438+0, which will undoubtedly increase the demand for domestic corn production.
In a word, in 2022, the supply of corn in China will decrease and the demand will increase, which is also the fundamental reason for the continuous strength of corn prices. With the listing of autumn grain in the second half of the year, corn prices may show different trends, but in the short term, corn prices may run at a high level until autumn. what do you think?