Since June 5438+ 10 this year, Hainan, Sichuan and other places have successively lowered the oil prices of different labels, and the "hard ice" of domestic refined oil prices began to show signs of loosening.
The price of refined oil "only rises but does not fall"?
Looking through the "old news" in recent years, we will find that the statement that oil prices "only rise but not fall" is inaccurate.
On February 20th, 2000, the former State Planning Commission issued a notice that the ex-factory price and retail price of gasoline and diesel were reduced in 20 yuan and 300 yuan respectively.
200 1 1 1 24, the ex-factory price and retail price of gasoline and diesel decreased again.
The latest announcement of lowering the price of refined oil was in May 2003 10. At that time, the wholesale and retail oil prices of refined oil products in Guangdong were all lowered by nearly 10%, and the oil prices in Shanghai dropped by 7.5% to 8%.
So, why do people still have the impression that oil prices "only go up but not down"?
Generally speaking, in recent years, oil prices have spiraled up in ups and downs. Especially since 2004, the international crude oil market has been shrouded in the shadow of tight supply and demand, and oil prices have risen sharply. From May to August, oil prices rose twice in a row, and domestic refined oil prices followed quickly, rising three times in less than half a year. In Beijing, No.97 gasoline rose to 3.90 yuan per liter.
Who is in charge of oil price fluctuation?
In 2004, China imported more than 65.438+0.2 billion tons of crude oil, a record high. With the increasing dependence of China's oil on foreign countries, people have more and more reasons to believe that no commodity can link the domestic market with the international market so closely as oil. At the same time, with the rapid growth of private cars, people pay more and more attention to the fluctuation of international oil.
Due to the drop in international oil prices, it failed to spread to the domestic retail market of refined oil products. Many car owners questioned the gas station, and the gas station said that "there was no notice of price reduction from the superior". The media interviewed the relevant leaders of PetroChina and Sinopec at the "top level" of gas stations, and the answer was: "The price management right of refined oil market lies with the National Development and Reform Commission." The answer given by the National Development and Reform Commission is that the price management department of the National Development and Reform Commission is paying close attention to the trend of international oil prices and has not yet made a price adjustment decision.
According to China's current price management system, the National Development and Reform Commission manages not only oil prices, but also electricity prices, water prices, agricultural prices and coal prices that have attracted much attention. In recent years, due to the overall shortage of energy and water resources and rising prices, the National Development and Reform Commission is in the "crater" of public concern.
Jiang Jiemin, president of China Petroleum and Natural Gas Co., Ltd., recently interpreted the oil price and gave a better explanation for the current "stable" refined oil price. Jiang said that after the third price increase of domestic refined oil products in August 2004, the international oil price was still soaring. By the end of June 5438+ 10, the price of crude oil on new york Commercial Futures Exchange had exceeded $55/barrel. However, from the perspective of stabilizing the market at that time, the National Development and Reform Commission did not raise the retail price of domestic refined oil for the fourth time, and the two major oil companies also operated at a loss to maintain stability. Because the domestic oil price was obviously low at that time, there was even a phenomenon of smuggling oil products from home to abroad.
Will domestic oil prices come down?
Does the "disconnection" between domestic and international oil prices really stem from the "loss-making operation" of the previous two major companies?
The answer is no, the voice from the National Development and Reform Commission said that although the domestic oil price has been in line with the international oil market, for the sake of long-term economic development and social stability, the fluctuation of domestic oil price generally lags behind the international oil price 1 to 2 months. In other words, the final determinant of oil price fluctuation is the market.
Information from the market also confirms this point: on June 5, 2005, Sinopec lowered the retail price of No.90 and No.93 gasoline in Chengdu, with an average price reduction of 0.06 yuan per liter; 65438+10.6, the retail prices of No.93 and No.97 gasoline at Sinopec Hainan Gas Station were also quietly lowered. On the evening of June 5438, 2005+10 10, PetroChina began to cut prices in Sichuan province. 90 #, 93 # and 97 # gasoline in Chengdu are 3.37 yuan/liter, 3.7/kloc-0 yuan/liter and 3.99 yuan/liter respectively.
Now, the greater expectation is that the National Development and Reform Commission officially issued a document to lower the price of domestic refined oil. However, the overall analysis of the international oil price trend shows that there is little room for domestic refined oil prices to be lowered.
First of all, we can review the international crude oil market. On August 9, 2004, the price of crude oil futures on new york Commercial Futures Exchange rose to $44.98/barrel; On August 22nd, it rose to USD 49.40/barrel, the highest price since the introduction of 1983 crude oil futures. It is under this pressure that the National Development and Reform Commission made the decision to raise domestic refined oil for the third time in that year on August 25th.
At the same time, let's take a look at the latest international crude oil market: after the oil price stopped falling and rebounded in June 5438+ 10, 2005, the futures price of the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil rose to the highest price since the end of last year, namely $48.38/barrel. This price is almost the same as that when the National Development and Reform Commission raised the domestic oil price on August 25th last year. "If the international crude oil price is almost the same, it is expected that the National Development and Reform Commission will reduce the domestic refined oil price. This possibility is obviously very small. " An industry researcher said.