Let's take a look at the current domestic refined oil prices. After entering 2022, China's refined oil products have been adjusted 10 times, including 9 times of upward adjustment and 1 time of downward adjustment. Compared with 5438+0 at the end of 2026, the cumulative increase of refined oil in 2022 has reached about 25%. At present, a full tank of oil is 5438+0 more than the end of 2026, which is still obvious. Moreover, after several rounds of adjustment, domestic gasoline and diesel have entered the 8 yuan era in an all-round way, with 92 # gasoline basically reaching above 8.6 yuan, 95 # gasoline reaching above 9.23 yuan, and 0 # diesel generally reaching above 8.4 yuan.
Let's look at the international crude oil price. After entering 2022, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European Union plans to ban the import of crude oil from Russia and other factors, the international crude oil price has been rising all the way. At the end of 20021,the international crude oil price was only about 73 dollars, but at present, the international crude oil price has soared to about 1 15 dollars, with an increase of more than 57%. Moreover, international crude oil has been in a state of high fluctuation. From March to now, the international crude oil price has been fluctuating between 100 USD and16,5438+05 USD. Although it has declined in the short term, it will rise rapidly after some favorable factors appear.
For example, because the possibility that the European Union prohibits the import of crude oil from Russia is increasing, the international crude oil price has risen obviously, and the international crude oil has been rising from May 19 to May 26. Among them, the increase of international crude oil on May 26th was more obvious. On May 26th, the price of light crude oil for July delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 3.76 USD to close at 1 14.09 USD per barrel, with an increase of 3.4 1%. London Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 3.37 USD to close at 1 17.40 USD per barrel, with an increase of 2.96%.
Moreover, according to the current trend of international crude oil, international crude oil prices are unlikely to fall too much in the short term, and may even continue to rise. On the one hand, the EU's decision to impose an embargo on Russia is becoming more and more firm, which may lead to an obvious gap in the international crude oil supply. On the other hand, under the background of the continuous release of strategic oil reserves by the International Energy Agency, the oil reserves of various countries are getting lower and lower, which is not a good signal. Another is that from the recent international demand for crude oil, although the growth rate has slowed down, the global demand for crude oil is still relatively large.
In addition, the willingness of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase oil production is not strong. Although they announced that they will increase some production capacity in June, the increase is limited and will not bring much relief to the international crude oil gap. Therefore, under the influence of many factors, the international crude oil price will remain in a state of high fluctuation during this period. If some bullish factors continue to appear, the possibility that international crude oil prices will continue to rise will not be ruled out.
Finally, the adjustment of domestic gasoline price is predicted. China's refined oil products are linked to international crude oil, and the adjustment period of refined oil products is 10 working days. During the adjustment period, we refer to the price trends of several major international crude oil markets, and then get a price by weighted average. When the price changes greatly compared with the previous cycle, and the corresponding adjustment range of domestic refined oil reaches more than 50 yuan per ton, a new round of adjustment window will be opened. At 24 o'clock on the evening of May 30, China will usher in a new round of refined oil adjustment window. From the observation of international crude oil in this round of refined oil adjustment cycle, the change rate of international crude oil is relatively large at present.
As of the 9th observation day on May 26th, the rate of change of international crude oil is about 8%, corresponding to the expected increase of domestic refined oil by about 360 yuan per ton. Now there is only one last observation day before May 30th. Without extreme circumstances, the change rate of international crude oil will basically not change much, so the adjustment range of domestic refined oil products is basically between 340 yuan and 380 yuan per ton on May 30. The corresponding increase of gasoline per liter is about 0.25 yuan to 0.28 yuan. After this adjustment, in 2022, in the adjustment of 1 1 time, domestic refined oil will increase by1time, and the cumulative adjustment range will reach about 2400 yuan. By then, No.92 gasoline will reach 8.8 yuan, and some areas will enter the 9 yuan era.