Question 2: China's entry into sdr has enhanced the stability of the exchange rate against the US dollar and the euro, right? It can be understood that
With the passage of time, at the beginning of RMB's inclusion in SDR, the proportion of USD and EUR in SDR is expected to decrease. The proportion of US dollar and euro may face greater downward pressure, because its proportion is much higher than other currencies, and it is more than three times the size of euro assets.
But let's not just look at one side. Everything has two sides. Internationalization of RMB.
You need to see the RMB slowly enter the ranks of international payment. Zhao Guang, an analyst at Global Jinhui, believes that part of the reason for this difference lies in the valuation, and the USD/EUR is currently at a high level of 12. According to the calculation of the nominal effective exchange rate of the Bank for International Settlements, the trade-weighted index of the US dollar has increased by 2 1% in the past five years. The pressure on the dollar and the euro has decreased.
There are two aspects. I don't know if you've noticed.
If it's just an exam, you can basically answer it clearly as above.
Question 3: What is the impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU on foreign exchange?
In the past three years, the European debt crisis has been continuously fermented, which has induced the tendency of "centrifugal separation from Germany" in the EU to some extent. The most fatal thing is that British citizens, one of the "Troika" of the European Union, decided to leave the EU. After Britain leaves the EU, we should know what impact it has on foreign exchange. Don't think that Britain's exit from the EU has nothing to do with you. In fact, it has a lot to do with you.
What is the impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU on foreign exchange? The success of Britain's exit from the EU will affect many currencies. After several months of market volatility and anxiety caused by Britain's exit from the EU polls, investors in the foreign exchange market will get the final result of Britain's exit from the EU next week. The median market expectation is that Britain will avoid Britain and leave the EU.
If the above expectations are confirmed next week, it will open the door to the rise of British pound, Norwegian krona, Swedish krona, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar.
At the same time, safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc will retreat from recent gains, and the risk balance will also support the euro, but it will put pressure on the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.
Considering the role of Britain's referendum on leaving the EU in the recent dove transformation of the Federal Reserve, it is expected that Britain's stay in Europe will boost the market's interest rate hike expectations, which will also provide some support for the US dollar.
There is no doubt that the risk of Britain leaving the EU will spread further before the referendum, especially if the British polls show that the support rate of Britain leaving the EU is higher than that of staying in Europe.
Liquidity in the foreign exchange market is expected to deteriorate further, as many investors hope to make bets after the results of the referendum on Britain's withdrawal from the EU are announced. Therefore, we are very cautious about the short-term risks in the market. Foreign exchange rebate can greatly reduce the transaction cost of investors, and investors should make good use of it.
In fact, the rising risk of Britain's exit from the EU has brought downward pressure on European G 10 currencies, including the euro, to varying degrees.
In other words, once Britain's withdrawal from the EU becomes a reality, it will lead to market turmoil, which in turn will lead to market risk aversion, and finally further pressure the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar to fall. The warming of market risk aversion will further push up the yen. Although the Bank of Japan's foreign exchange intervention may limit its certain increase, the appreciation of the yen will remain "unstoppable".
The risk of Britain's exit from the EU has prompted investors to bet that the Fed will not raise interest rates further before 20 18.
As the US dollar has recorded a certain decline before, it is expected that the US dollar will show strong resilience compared with other G 10 currencies when the British referendum on leaving the EU approaches.
Question 4: What is the impact of qe expansion in the euro zone on the euro? Qe shows that the downward pressure on the euro zone economy is still great in the future, so expanding qe is bad for the euro.
Question 5: What is the impact of RMB's entry into sdr on the US dollar? 1. USD is under downward pressure.
The proportion of the US dollar may face greater downward pressure, because its proportion is much higher than other currencies, and it is more than three times the size of the euro assets. Part of the reason for this difference is valuation. USD/EUR is currently at a high level of 65,438+02. According to the calculation of the nominal effective exchange rate of the Bank for International Settlements, the trade-weighted index of the US dollar has increased by 2 1% in the past five years.
2. The hegemony of the dollar will be cracked.
The inclusion of RMB in the IMF's currency basket can reverse the situation of "my dollar, your problem", make the voting rights of China and other emerging market countries match their rising economic status, help to enhance the stability, representativeness and legitimacy of the currency basket, and make the international monetary system develop into a more stable multi-reserve monetary system.
Question 6: Why did Switzerland cancel the exchange rate floor, causing the euro to plummet? Switzerland cancelled the lower limit of the peg to 1.2, which means that Switzerland thinks QE may be implemented in the euro zone, so the euro fell and the Swiss franc rose.
Question 7: What is the prospect of the euro? It is expected that economic growth will gradually and steadily improve.
In terms of economic growth, the latest data is the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year. According to the figures released by Eurostat, the GDP of the euro zone in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 0.2% from the previous quarter and increased by 0.6% year-on-year; The GDP of the euro zone in the first quarter is estimated to increase by 0. 1%-0.4% compared with the previous quarter, and it is estimated to increase by 0.4%-0.7% compared with the previous quarter. The data shows that although the euro zone economy reached the edge of economic recession at the end of last year, it is expected to break away from this "edge of recession" and embark on a steady rebound in the first quarter of this year, driven by the V-shaped recovery of the US economy.
As far as the industry is concerned, the data since the beginning of the euro zone show that the rebound of the service industry is greater than that of the manufacturing industry. Among the service industries, financial services and commercial activities grew the fastest, while services such as trade, transportation and communication also showed different degrees of growth. Although the manufacturing industry has also improved, the speed of improvement is very slow.
With the recovery of the world economy and the growth of demand, the trend of slowing economic growth in the European Union and the euro zone has ended, but this does not mean the beginning of a strong recovery. If there is such optimistic expectation, it may be largely related to the German-French general election. For political reasons, the improvement of the American economy can be used to explain the rapid recovery of the euro zone economy. The reality is that there is no clear signal of economic recovery in the euro zone, or such a signal is not enough.
If this steady and slow recovery trend can be maintained, the economic growth rate of the euro zone in 2002 can reach 2%. In fact, neither the European Union nor the European Central Bank has the intention of pursuing high growth rate in policy measures, but hopes to achieve the neutral economic growth target of 1.5-2% under the conditions of structural reform and basic balance at home and abroad. This less radical growth may be more beneficial to the European Union and euro zone countries, which take stability as the first goal and have a series of structural problems that need to be reformed.
The inflation situation is not serious yet.
According to Eurostat figures, prices in the whole euro zone generally rose in June 5438+ 10, and the inflation rate was 2.7%. The price rises because there are some special temporary factors at work, such as tax increase in individual countries and the influence of converting the original currency into euro. Now the above factors are disappearing or being digested, which makes the inflation rate in the euro zone fall to 2.4% in February, but it is still higher than the 2% ceiling set by the EU. Figures released by the national statistical offices of France and Germany show that the inflation rates of France and Germany, which account for half of the euro zone economy, have dropped from 2.4% and 2.3% in June of 5438+ 10 to 2.3% and 1.8% respectively. Ising, chief economist of the European Central Bank, said recently that the inflation rate in the euro zone 12 countries may fall to a level far below 2% from April to June. The European Central Bank also reiterated in its monthly report in March that inflation in the euro zone will fall below the 2% ceiling set by the central bank in the coming months because:
First of all, the oil price, an important factor affecting inflation in the euro zone, remains stable or declining. Second, the wage level in the euro zone has remained stable. Third, the euro exchange rate will not fall sharply. Recently, the exchange rate of the euro has been rising, which has also played a certain role in alleviating the inflationary pressure in the euro zone. However, once the euro exchange rate falls sharply again, it will input inflationary pressure to the euro zone.
The changes of the above three factors will prompt us to constantly adjust our judgment on the price level in the euro zone. However, from the current point of view, inflationary pressure in the euro zone has not yet posed a threat. The CPI data in March will receive much attention. If the data continues to decline, it will form an expectation that the inflation rate in the euro zone will indeed return to below 2%.
Prediction of the recent interest rate decision direction of the European Central Bank
M3 money supply is another monetary policy pillar in the euro zone besides CPI. Although the annual growth rate of M3 supply is still significantly higher than the reference value of 4.5%, it is not expected to pose any threat to price stability. Because the growth of M3 is mainly caused by 9? 1 1 portfolio transfer after the event, because the increase of economic and financial uncertainty leads to the further flow of longer-term assets to the low-risk and easy-to-realize financial instruments contained in M3. However, it is necessary to pay close attention to the development of M3. If the growth rate of money supply does not slow down by March, it is necessary to re-evaluate the risks brought by the growth of money supply to price stability, especially in the case of strong economic downturn in the euro zone. & gt
Question 8: The operation of the balance of payments platform of SAFE is 5 points. At present, it seems that the balance of payments platform of SAFE can only be set up and maintained by users, and the online declaration function of enterprises can be turned on and off. Statistical inquiry and submission of declaration data are generally collected and entered by banks developed by designated foreign exchange banks and submitted to the foreign exchange bureau.
Question 9: What does the MACD high dead fork mean? How high is high and how low is low? On the 24th, the stock index futures rebounded weakly, suffered another setback and fluctuated downward. IF 1 109 once broke through the resistance of 2840 in early trading, with the highest rebound of 2844.8, but failed to continue to hit the resistance of 2849, and then fell back after encountering resistance, with the lowest declines around 28 15.8 and 28 15, and the support was weak. Spot stock index fluctuated lower, led by cement, ceramics and finance; Medical equipment, furniture, shipbuilding and other sectors were among the top gainers.
RMB FDI is prohibited from entering the market, the CBRC emphasizes that credit funds are strictly prohibited from entering the market, the state strengthens the protection and supervision of cultivated land, the purchase restriction in second-and third-tier cities is imminent, and the pressure of stock index rebound is great.
Moody's, an American rating company, announced on the 24th that it would downgrade Japan's credit rating to Aa3, with a stable rating prospect. Moody's pointed out that the main reason for the downgrade is Japan's huge budget deficit, and the frequent changes in * * * hinder the implementation of long-term economic and financial strategies. This is also the second time that Moody's downgraded Japan's credit rating after 9 years since May 2002.
Japanese Finance Minister Noda Yoshihiko stressed on the morning of 24th that Moody's, an American rating company, downgraded Japan's long-term credit rating: "Judging from the recent tender for national debt, the situation is also very smooth. China's national debt credit will not be shaken. " The Japanese market reacted smoothly to Moody's downgrade.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected the idea of asking Greece to provide market collateral for emergency loans on Tuesday, and her German cabinet disagreed, reflecting the different positions of the euro zone on this matter.
In order to avoid the further spread and escalation of the protracted European debt crisis, the EU is studying various countermeasures, but there are huge differences within the EU, and the political difficulty of implementing the rescue mechanism is unprecedented. In this regard, Moody's, an international rating agency, warned on the 22nd that "all the above signs have exposed the deep rift between seemingly United EU member states". Failure to reach an agreement on the rescue mechanism as soon as possible will aggravate Greece's debt default risk.
The annual annual meeting of global central banks will be held this Friday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver an important speech on economic and monetary policies. Financial markets expect European and American central bank governors to point out the direction for investors at Friday's annual central bank meeting: the global market has expressed eager expectations for the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) with a record high in gold prices and a lower dollar. Japan's credit rating has been downgraded, and the European debt crisis remains unresolved. The market is concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will launch QE3 at the central bank summit this Friday. The turmoil in the international financial situation has limited the rebound space of domestic stock indexes and futures indexes, and the mid-line decline of futures indexes is difficult to change. During the day, the stock index futures were weakly consolidating, and the downward pressure was still there. IF 1 109 rebound resistance levels are 2849 and 2869, and support levels are 28 15 and 2786. Haitong futures Investment Consulting Department Liu Lutian Manwen