Today, the second brother continues to soar, and the north and south pig markets are red again. The pig price monitoring table shows that the pig price in 14 provinces has entered the "8 era", and the pig price in Guangdong has gone straight to the "10 era". Farmers are happy, because some have earned more than 100 yuan from raising pigs, and they are not happy after making money.
At present, the national average price of live pigs has also exceeded "8 yuan/Jin", and the live pig market has greatly improved, and some farmers have finally overcome the difficulties, from deep losses to meager profits.
There are also many factors that cause the recent increase in pig prices, mainly in the following five aspects: First, Guangdong introduced a new policy of pig transportation, and further strengthened strict management in the later period. For this province with a large pork consumption, this policy makes the supply of live pigs in this area tight, which in turn drives the prices of live pigs and pork products around it to rise.
Second, after entering May, the amount of live pigs slaughtered recently began to decrease gradually. According to incomplete statistics, the planned slaughter of listed companies decreased by about 5% in May, which limited the market supply. Third, the confidence of farmers has gradually recovered and the market is bullish. Even the recent work "Pork Storage" has been auctioned by nearly 90%, which also shows the market situation in the later stage of multi-head farming; Fourthly, we can see some clues from the trading of futures, imported meat and reserved meat products, such as the behavior of supplementing piglets and fattening twice. Taking the second fattening as an example, this behavior artificially prolongs the slaughter period of pigs, which reduces the slaughter amount of standard pigs in the near future and further raises the price.
The fifth is pork consumption. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in April was 2,948.3 billion yuan, down 1 1. 1.0% year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic, the decline rate of the chain was accelerated. Among them, catering demand was under pressure again. In April, catering revenue was 260.9 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-on-year.
The catering industry accounts for 30% of the pork demand, and the sharp drop in the catering industry demand also directly affects the pork market. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in COVID-19 in May, the epidemic situation in Shanghai gradually turned for the better. According to the report of Shanghai Health and Wellness Committee on June 17, all districts in Shanghai 16 have achieved zero social coverage.
Next, the demand for pork will slowly recover, which will form a certain support for pig prices.
Overall, it is expected that pig prices will continue to rise in the second half of May, and the price center of gravity will continue to move up in May.
However, the short-term tight supply environment still exists, but the second fattening artificially extended the slaughter period of some pigs, and these fat pigs began to be slaughtered in June, which may have an impact on the market in June-July. At the same time, after entering the summer, the temperature rises, the risk of pig farm disease increases, the consumer resistance intensifies after the pork price rises, and the mask problem still exists. According to industry insiders, the downward risk of pig prices will increase around the Dragon Boat Festival, which will affect pig prices.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose in 22, fell in 0 and fell in 4, and the rising areas accounted for 85% of all the monitored areas. The pig market as a whole shows a "large-scale rise" trend.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is still difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase pigs at present, and slaughter enterprises show a loss trend. Due to the rising price of live pigs, many enterprises have reduced production to a certain extent.
The pig price of group pig farms continues to rise, and the price of many regional groups has exceeded 8 yuan/kg. The slaughterhouse's enthusiasm for receiving goods has been weakened, the upward momentum has been slightly weakened, the market sentiment has changed, and the mood of maintaining stability has been significantly enhanced. A few enterprises have a certain willingness to reduce prices.
Most of the pig prices of breeding groups have increased, and the pig prices of pig enterprises have increased significantly. The number of live pigs on the market announced by the leading group has decreased and adjusted, and there has been a certain increase in key areas, and the increase in pig prices has obviously weakened. Many pig farms have a premium phenomenon.
The ex-factory price of white striped pigs in northern slaughter enterprises rose by 500 yuan/ton, and the delivery speed of slaughter enterprises was good, mainly due to insufficient supply.
However, with the domestic pig slaughter price gradually rising to the fattening cost line, the pressure on farmers to sit on the wall is easy to loosen, and the consumer market lacks sustained and strong support, so the pig price still hides the risk of falling.
Early warning of pig price trend tomorrow: combined with the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the price of live pigs will show a trend of "stable and rising more" tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will continue to rise tomorrow.