1. my country's agricultural exports in 2006 In 2006, my country's agricultural exports overcame the impact of foreign technical barriers and the pressure of rising production costs. Although they experienced large fluctuations, they still achieved rapid growth. From January to October, my country's agricultural exports totaled US$24.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and the full year is expected to reach US$30 billion. In the first 10 months, the main situations and characteristics of agricultural product exports are as follows: First, the structure of agricultural product exports has been further optimized. From January to October, the export of deeply processed agricultural products was US$11.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, accounting for 47% of the total agricultural exports, an increase of 3.2 percentage points over the same period last year; during the same period, the growth rate of primary agricultural products was only 6.4% . Among the main commodity categories, the export of horticultural products and aquatic and seafood products still maintained a strong momentum, with exports of US$6.94 billion and US$7.06 billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of 19.9% ??and 22.3%. Affected by the closure of the main sales market, the export growth of livestock and poultry products continued to slow down, with exports reaching US$3.01 billion, an increase of 3.4%. Due to changes in the supply and demand situation in the domestic corn market, export prices lacked international competitiveness, resulting in a significant decline in grain exports. From January to October, exports were only US$750 million, a decrease of 38%. Second, the market structure of agricultural product exports has changed slightly. Japan, the European Union, the United States, ASEAN, South Korea, and Hong Kong are still the six main sales markets for my country's agricultural exports. Affected by the "positive list system", the growth rate of exports to Japan dropped significantly. After consecutive declines in June and July, there was recovery growth from August to October. In the first 10 months, exports to Japan were US$6.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. , the proportion of exports to Japan in China's total agricultural exports dropped to 26.9%, the lowest in recent years; driven by the substantial growth of aquatic and seafood products, exports to the EU and the United States grew strongly, with growth rates reaching 22.6% and 33.9% respectively; Since January this year, all agricultural products under the China-ASEAN Early Harvest Agreement have been subject to zero tariffs, which has driven China's agricultural exports to ASEAN to achieve rapid growth. Total exports reached US$2.39 billion, an increase of 28.4%; affected by the reduction in corn exports, exports to South Korea Exports fell by 5.0%; exports to Hong Kong increased by 1.2%. In the first 10 months, China's agricultural exports to emerging markets such as West Asia, Latin America, Africa, and Russia increased by more than 20%. The proportion of emerging markets in total exports increased by 1 percentage point compared with the same period last year. Third, the main export regions have good growth momentum. In the first 10 months, the export volume of the six major export regions, including Shandong, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Liaoning and Jiangsu, each exceeded US$1 billion, with a growth rate of 9 to 33%. The total export volume accounted for 68% of China's total agricultural exports. . The growth rates of 10 provinces and autonomous regions in the central and western regions, including Shanxi, Hubei, and Shaanxi, exceeded the national average. Fourth, export prices rose steadily. From January to October, the export price index of agricultural products increased by 4.8 compared with the same period last year (in the first three quarters, the national production price of agricultural products fell by 0.3%). Among the 30 export agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce, the export prices of 19 products increased. The prices of garlic, apple juice, canned tomato paste, canned asparagus, canned mushrooms, etc. have increased by more than 20 to 60%. Driven by prices, garlic exports have exceeded US$1.1 billion, becoming the largest export of agricultural products. Fifth, the vitality of business entities has been enhanced. From January to October, there were 18,900 domestic enterprises engaged in exporting agricultural products, 16% higher than the same period last year. Private enterprises have become a new growth point for agricultural exports, with exports increasing by more than 40%. The export competitiveness of large enterprises with perfect quality assurance systems has been further strengthened. There are 436 agricultural products export enterprises with an export volume of more than 10 million US dollars, an increase of 21% over the same period last year. 2. Analysis of the export situation of agricultural products in 2007 The international situation faced by my country's agricultural exports in 2007 1. The world economy and trade will maintain a good growth trend, which is conducive to the development of China's agricultural exports. According to the predictions of international organizations such as the IMF, although world economic growth in 2007 may have declined compared with this year, it is still in a rapid growth cycle. Among them, the economic growth of the United States will slow down significantly, but the economic conditions of the European Union (the European Union's autumn report raised the economic growth rate in 2006 to 2.8%) and Japan are relatively promising, and developing countries as a whole will maintain rapid growth. The rapid growth momentum of global trade is also expected to continue. 2. World agricultural trade will maintain rapid growth. In the past three years, world agricultural trade has continued to grow rapidly. According to WTO statistics, the average annual growth rate of world agricultural trade in 2003, 2004 and 2005 was 11.6%, 14.8% and 8.8% respectively. According to the "Agricultural Outlook 2006-2015" jointly prepared by the OECD and FAO, it is expected that world agricultural production will expand steadily. As income and trade grow, per capita food consumption will also increase. However, developed markets pay more attention to food ingredients and quality. These will provide more development opportunities for my country's agricultural exports. Due to energy shortages, the domestic corn ethanol industry in the United States has developed rapidly recently, corn exports have decreased, and prices in the international market have risen. The development of bioenergy will have an impact on the world grain trade pattern. 3. Trade protectionism is on the rise, and technical trade barriers are becoming institutionalized. In July, the WTO Doha Round negotiations were suspended due to failure to reach agreement on agricultural and non-agricultural negotiation models. This indicates that the process of agricultural trade liberalization is blocked and trade protectionism is on the rise.

In recent years, my country's advantageous products such as shrimp, garlic, canned oranges, etc. have encountered trade disputes such as anti-dumping and safeguard measures from Europe and the United States. In June this year, the European Union notified the WTO that it planned to modify the concession schedules of three poultry products: from a single tariff to Tariff quotas. As the scale of my country's agricultural exports further expands, it may trigger more and more trade restrictions in developed countries. At the same time, developed countries have taken advantage of consumers' concerns about food safety to continuously raise market access thresholds for agricultural products. Japan's "positive list system" marks that technical barriers in developed countries have become institutionalized and legalized, and have entered the macro level. The impact will continue for some time to come. (2) Domestic factors affecting my country's agricultural exports in 2007 1. The country's policies and measures to develop modern agriculture will promote the improvement of the international competitiveness of my country's agricultural products. In 2007, the country will further strengthen various policies to support and benefit agriculture, vigorously develop modern agriculture, adjust the agricultural industry structure, promote industrialized management, increase the output and quality of agricultural products, promote the continuous growth of farmers' income, improve the overall quality and competitiveness of agriculture, and promote Agricultural modernization has laid a solid foundation for the sustained growth of agricultural exports. As the policy environment for exporting agricultural products gradually improves, the vitality of business entities continues to increase, and the food safety and quality awareness of enterprises increases, China's comparative advantages in exporting agricultural products will be further brought into play. 2. The quality and safety level of agricultural products has been further improved, and export enterprises have shown a polarized development trend. Under the guidance of government policies, export enterprises will further expand the construction of their own bases and increase investment in quality control, and the quality and safety level of products will be effectively improved. Some excellent export companies with larger self-owned bases and higher quality management levels will receive more orders from the high-end market, and export prices and corporate benefits will be on the rise. However, if some small and medium-sized enterprises with small export scale and mainly purchasing goods sources do not strengthen quality construction from the source of production in a timely manner, they will encounter operating difficulties and even withdraw from the international market. 3. Export costs are still on an upward trend, and export benefits are affected. Since the beginning of this year, due to factors such as the general increase in raw material prices, labor costs, energy, and transportation costs, the large increase in inspection and quarantine costs (exports to Japan increased by more than 50%), and the increase in exchange costs caused by exchange rate fluctuations, the comprehensive cost of agricultural product exports has increased. About 6-15%. Although export prices have increased, the overall benefits of export enterprises have declined to varying degrees. The profits of live pigs, canned citrus, some vegetables and primary processed agricultural products have declined significantly. It is expected that prices of raw materials, energy, labor, etc. will continue to trend upward next year. If export prices cannot be increased simultaneously, the profit margins of export companies will be further reduced. Among them, labor shortage and rising wages have a greater impact on the eastern region and processing enterprises; while rising energy and transportation costs have a greater impact on the export of agricultural products in the central and western regions; the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a greater impact on industries that have signed long-term export orders, and the level of imported raw material processing and export. Seafood creates greater pressure. At the same time, the difficulty in selling some domestic primary agricultural products will intensify export competition and reduce export efficiency.