The plot of Goldman Sachs was discovered by Bernanke.
The article "Goldman Sachs is questioned about the fall of Bear Stearns" published in the English version of The Wall Street Journal on July 16 revealed that the problem of Goldman Sachs manipulating the share prices of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers has been investigated by the Federal Reserve. Richard fuld, CEO of Lehman Brothers, accused Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs, that Goldman Sachs traders maliciously spread rumors about Lehman Brothers, which caused Lehman Brothers' share price to plummet. In the United States, manipulating stock prices is a very serious accusation.
The English edition of The Wall Street Journal requires a subscription fee. Investors who have no right to view it can read Reuters's report: Goldman Sachs questioned Bear Stearns and Lehman's share price fell.
Can the Fed do something about Goldman Sachs?
Goldman Sachs shorted subprime-related assets before the subprime crisis broke out, and Goldman Sachs is also the biggest short seller of subprime loans at present. Therefore, the subprime mortgage crisis is not only harmless to Goldman Sachs, but also conducive to its development and growth.
"It is better to chase after the poor, and it is better to learn the fame." After the success of the subprime mortgage crisis, Goldman Sachs was not idle, and stocks and bonds could not be done, so Goldman Sachs began to think about oil. Of course, Goldman Sachs did these things quietly, and quietly. Don't think that the CEO of Goldman Sachs took a vacation because the media didn't report it.
While doing more oil, Goldman Sachs is also shifting its attention to shorting Lehman Brothers. Since Goldman Sachs is the only short seller of subprime debt, it is impossible to turn over more. If it turns over more, won't it save the competitors? Other investment banks in the United States are all long-term subprime loans, which can't be hollowed out even if the liquidity of the subprime loan market is extremely scarce. Nobody answered your plate. How can you turn it?
The Fed is very angry at Goldman Sachs' behavior. You put in liquidity, oil prices will rise, you shrink liquidity, and Lehman Brothers will go bankrupt. In short, Goldman Sachs will benefit anyway, and Goldman Sachs has a considerable degree of initiative.
Bernanke felt powerless about the market-oriented approach. He became angry from embarrassment and prepared to solve this problem in a non-market way.
Bernanke played the role of Don Quixote.
After the Great Depression of 65438-0930, the United States implemented a separate supervision system and established the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to supervise investment banks. Although mixed operation began to become the mainstream in the 1990s, the general situation of separate supervision has not changed.
In the subprime mortgage crisis, Goldman Sachs is in an active position and the Federal Reserve is in a passive position. In this case, Bernanke tried to seize part of the power of the CSRC and directly supervise investment banks.
Careful investors may find that since the subprime mortgage crisis, the SEC has made little noise. The US Securities Regulatory Commission believes that the subprime mortgage crisis was triggered by the long-term monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and it does not want people to associate it with this economic crisis.
The SEC has long been the real power department in the United States. If the Fed tries to directly supervise investment banks, it may face great resistance. You, the Federal Reserve, can supervise investment banks, so why do you need the Securities and Exchange Commission? It is impossible for the ancestors of the SEC to agree.
Bernanke naturally knows this in his heart. He just wants to buy time. Bernanke hopes to use his smart posture and actions to deter speculation in the financial market, and hopes that with the passage of time, the economy will automatically heal the pain of the subprime mortgage crisis and re-enter the growth cycle.
However, financial markets have always been independent of personal will, and what Lehman Brothers did may make Bernanke change his previous views.
Lehman Brothers gave Bernanke a headache.
In the face of Goldman Sachs' empty singing, Lehman Brothers was at a loss. The CEO of Lehman Brothers tried to explain to investors, but the result was worse. Lehman Brothers had no choice but to use the tactics of besieging Wei to save Zhao, and shifted the contradiction to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in order to get out smoothly.
The plunge of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began on July 9, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell by 13. 1 1% and 23.77% respectively, and will fall sharply in the future. The fuse that triggered the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was a research report released by Bruce Harting, an analyst at Lehman Brothers, on July 9. In this research report, Bruce Harting declared that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac urgently needed to raise $75 billion to alleviate their difficulties.
Because the leverage resources in a market are always limited, and the market values of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are both large, if speculators shift their targets to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the short-selling pressure of Lehman Brothers will be much reduced. In addition, if the crisis of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac becomes a hot spot, then the financial media will not be interested in continuing to speculate on the old news of Lehman Brothers, and the public opinion pressure of Lehman Brothers will be reduced.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have federal government backgrounds, so it is difficult to fail. The high-rated bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are safer. There is nothing wrong with Asian governments or financial institutions buying high-rated bonds from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which must be made clear to investors.
In addition, the views of Lehman Brothers' research report are also contradictory. Why are you bearish on crude oil and houses and Freddie Mac? This is a complete bluff with ulterior motives.
For Bernanke, what the CEO of Lehman Brothers did to keep his job must be a headache. Bernanke's original point of view was to protect Lehman Brothers, but now you have lowered the share prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which has created a bigger problem for Bernanke, and you can't rule out the possibility that Bernanke's ideological understanding will change.
Can Goldman Sachs be the big winner of the subprime mortgage crisis?
As a short seller of subprime mortgage and a bull in the crude oil market, Goldman Sachs took the initiative in the subprime mortgage crisis. On the contrary, the Fed is relatively passive.
Although the current price of crude oil has fallen, it does not mean that Goldman Sachs is not fun. Crude oil prices fell and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Goldman Sachs can also short the bond market.
Lehman Brothers got a respite for the time being, but its share price is still depressed, and the plan to issue new shares is in the foreseeable future. All these show that none of the core problems of Lehman Brothers crisis have been solved. In addition, Lehman Brothers is different from Bear Stearns. Bear Stearns' problem is in the field of hedge funds, while Lehman Brothers' problem is in the field of fixed income. This means that if the Fed raises interest rates, Lehman Brothers will have a hard time.
In addition, the market can't believe what the CEO of Lehman Brothers said. Why advocate issuing new shares for a while and privatizing Lehman Brothers for a while? This is an incredible thing. You richard fuld say these contradictory words all day, which can only make the market think that your problem is incurable.
Since the market thinks that Lehman Brothers is terminally ill, the liquidity of Lehman Brothers is bound to go wrong. Other investment bank traders will not trade with Lehman Brothers, and customers will flee in a hurry. Once there is a problem with asset liquidity, Lehman Brothers is not far from bankruptcy.
Once Lehman Brothers is on the verge of bankruptcy, only Goldman Sachs has the ability to buy, and only Goldman Sachs intends to buy. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers will essentially solve the problem of overcapacity on Wall Street, and the subprime mortgage crisis will end immediately. After Goldman Sachs bought Lehman Brothers, it fired all Fuld executives and laid off some middle-level and grass-roots employees, so Lehman Brothers could turn losses immediately. After the subprime mortgage crisis, this part of Lehman Brothers' assets can also create huge profits for Goldman Sachs.
In addition, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is also popular. Because historical experience tells Americans that the bankruptcy of investment banks is conducive to the early end of the economic crisis.
Goldman Sachs is likely to be the biggest winner because of its timing (subprime mortgage crisis), geographical location (Lehman Brothers will not be allowed to sell to foreign investors) and human relations (public opinion).