In the dead of winter, the pig industry will experience it every few years, commonly known as the pig cycle.

But it is in such a depressed market that the importance of high-quality development of the industry is even more prominent.

Recently, the price of live pigs has continued to be relatively weak.

Although the national average pig-to-grain ratio has entered the first-level warning range, and the state has started the central frozen pork purchasing and storage work, the emotional support has not been transmitted to the spot market, especially in the current off-season, and the price of live pigs is still weak.

In fact, after the Spring Festival, the price of pigs dropped by 13.95% compared with the previous year. In mid-February, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that after the pig food price entered the second-level oversold warning range, the breeding end received the expected support and the pig price showed signs of stopping falling.

Zhou Xiaoqiu, chief agricultural product officer of Guotai Junan Futures Industry Office Research Institute, indicated that after the country officially started purchasing and storage, it gave emotional support to the market again. However, pork consumption in the first quarter is still in the off-season, and the operating rate of slaughter is low. The price of pigs fluctuated this week. According to the previous down cycle purchasing and storage plan, after many purchasing and storage experiences, the spot price will definitely be boosted.

According to Wei Xiu, an analyst of Shang Hui Futures Agricultural Products, the first batch of 1 purchasing, listing and bidding 19400 tons was completed on March 3rd, and the average transaction price was 19 135 yuan/ton. Not counting the logistics fee, it is converted into pigs according to the meat number of 12.5438+.

This week, the overall adjustment range of the national hog price was limited, which was 0. 1 yuan/kg, and the average weekly slaughter price was 12.28 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 1.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.78%.

Social pig farms are currently in the off-season of seasonal expenditure after the adverse consequences of purchasing and storage. The state and enterprises save or add market demand, but the demand level is usually increased. At present, the overall supply is sufficient and the market is still weak. On the whole, the market sentiment brought by this round of purchasing and storage is not good, far less than the last round of purchasing and storage last year (after 202 1 National Day).

Wei Xiu said.

The quantity of purchasing and storage is based on the market expectation, because the supply and demand situation is difficult to basically reverse, so the impact of purchasing and storage on market stability is more psychological and the essential impact is limited. If it is necessary to prevent the price from rising after storage, it will be supplied from the breeding side again.

Wang Jun, agricultural product analyst of Minmetals Futures, performed.

However, the reporter noted that with the boost of the news of pork purchasing and storage, pig-raising enterprises in the A-share market had a certain increase, but the news was digested by the market very quickly and the increase could not be sustained.

As a leading enterprise, Qin Yinglin, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Mu Yuan, said that practitioners should face the reality, respect the market, respect the pig cycle and make preparations in advance.

At the time of skyrocketing, when the pig price is high and there is profit, we should make a fuss about the promotion of the industry and turn the dividend into our own talent, especially the ability to cope with the trough of the pig cycle.

Then, when the low tide comes, we should be effective, reduce costs and ensure production safety and supply, which is a periodic reaction in the industry.

He said that it is necessary to face the pig cycle accurately and not ignore it.

We should respect the pig cycle, or we have been talking about coordinating our behavior with the pig cycle, including production deployment and capital deployment.

In addition, he also showed that from the market level, excellent head enterprises should unite, that is, complement each other, so as to improve efficiency, quality and market optimization, and thus promote the improvement of all pig industries.

When to get out of the trough of this pig cycle has become the core of the current market.

In this regard, Qin Yinglin believes that the pig price in the off-season after the year is relatively low. According to the market supply and demand situation, the pig price may improve slightly in the second half of the year.

At present, it is still too early to make a correct guess on the future pig price, but also depends on the market situation in the next period of time.

But no matter how the external environment changes, it is the key to improve the hard power of the enterprise itself.

To cope with the pig cycle, enterprises should consider their own systems, mechanisms and talents, and pay attention to internal factors such as innovation, technology, skills, governance, efficiency, capital and manpower.

In Zhou Xiaoqiu's view, the determination of the inflection point of the pig cycle needs to refer to the progress of de-capacity. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, at the end of 1, there were 42.9 million sows, which was higher than the normal level and was still in the downward cycle of pigs.

Production capacity elimination is usually determined by breeding profit, which will return in the fourth quarter of 2002/kloc-0, which will definitely affect the pace of production capacity elimination. Feed costs will rise rapidly in the first and second quarters, and it is required to limit the rebound of pig prices in the off-season. If the continuous negative profit at the breeding end effectively stimulates the further elimination of production capacity, it is expected to have a market inflection point in the third and fourth quarters of 2022.

At this year's National People's Congress, Liu Yonghao, member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of New Hope Group, brought the Proposal on Stabilizing Production Capacity, Reducing Periodic Fluctuations and Leading the Pig Industry to Advance Steadily (hereinafter referred to as the Proposal).

In the proposal, Liu Yonghao put forward four suggestions, including increasing counter-cyclical financial support for aquaculture enterprises, guiding rating agencies to make fair and objective judgments, and improving financial risk hedging tools.

At the beginning of 20021,live pig futures, as a financial tool to help industry enterprises hedge against the risk of cyclical fluctuations, was officially listed in the big trading house.

According to the reporter's understanding, Mu Yuan Co., Ltd., as a leading goose in the industry, set up a futures team before the listing of live pig futures, and actively intervened after the listing of live pig futures.

In Wang Jun's view, live pig futures have at least two impacts on the industry. First, the influence of price anchoring guides market expectations fairly through fixed forward prices, helping enterprises to allocate resources fairly and operate stably.

Secondly, help enterprises to intervene in hedging, lock in prices and profits in advance, and avoid long-term price risks, so as to put more energy into entity operations.

As a new buying and selling occasion and channel, pig futures can help enterprises to lock in the price and operating cost (or sales profit) of pigs, reduce the risk fluctuation brought to enterprises' operation, and provide a great impetus for the development of pig breeding.

Wei Xiu thought.

When talking about the relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy, Qin Yinglin showed that the real economy is right and wrong, and the virtual and the real are interdependent and mutually supportive.

It is futile to do more work, just like fighting on the battlefield. We should run faster, be more skillful and more mobile, and lay the foundation for vanity.

Since the listing of live pig futures, it has continuously promoted the enthusiasm of customers in the industry. Judging from the announcements of listed companies, most head farming enterprises have set up their own futures discussion groups and made hedging attempts. The increase of the futures market in the future will be more conducive to the industry to stabilize price risks and achieve relative capital security.

For aquaculture, futures contract prices must reflect long-term expectations, play a leading role in production and operation for production enterprises, and be conducive to the fair allocation of production.

Zhou Xiaoqiu said.

(Author: Futures Daily Wu)