For long-term investors, you need to have the following investment mentality:
1. The speculative mentality should be reduced.
It is necessary to establish a rational investment concept, not to be moved by small fluctuations in stock prices, not to turn investment into speculation, and not to turn long-term operations into short-term operations.
2. impetuous mentality should be changed.
Long-term investors should have a kind of patience. After the stock price has a certain increase, we should not only dare to hold shares, but also dare to cover positions at a low level and strengthen the long-term investment concept.
It's not a day or two to turn over one's fortune.
Long-term investors should not rush to turn over books when they are stuck or cutting meat. They should face it calmly and wait patiently for new investment opportunities.
4. Keep a cool head and avoid panic.
Some long-term investors, easily influenced by some bad news, panic and lose confidence in the stock market or the stocks in their hands, so they desperately sell their stocks. Some investors mistakenly believe in some favorable interest rates, so they are often fooled by some main bookmakers with ulterior motives. Therefore, we suggest that long-term investors must keep a cool head, objectively analyze the authenticity of all kinds of news, and avoid blind panic.
5. Long lines don't need frequent operation.
Long-term investors should avoid chasing up and down in the market and operate frequently. They can only pay more commissions to securities companies, but in the end they make little profit and increase investment risks.
6. Excessive greed is not desirable.
Excessive greed is a taboo in the stock market, especially for long-term investors. It is natural for investors to want to get profits, but they should not be too greedy. Many times, the failure of investors is caused by excessive greed. A rational long-term investor will never be greedy when making profits, but will settle decisively.
7. It is difficult to succeed blindly following the trend.
The fluctuation of the stock market is influenced by many complicated factors, among which investors' psychology of following the trend has a great influence on the stock market. Investors with this mentality, seeing others buying stocks in succession, are afraid of falling behind, and follow suit without knowing the operating performance of the stock market and listed companies. Sometimes, when they see others selling their own stocks, they don't ask why they are selling them, but they sell their own stocks with great potential in a muddle. Such blind followers are often used by those who use the stock market to make waves and regret it afterwards.
In addition, some investors love to chase hot spots blindly, knowing that the hot spots in the market are always changing. If you follow the trend and chase hot spots, it is easy to get stuck in a high position. Rational investors who are interested in long-term investment will not blindly chase hot spots, but look for hot spots in the future from unpopular stocks and potential stocks with large room for growth from low-priced stocks that have not been hyped. Long-term investors should establish the consciousness of buying and selling stocks independently, learn to combine their own analysis to trade stocks, and don't blindly follow suit.
Gold portfolio index of long-term investment
The golden portfolio of long-term investment consists of emotional indicator BRAR and moving average convergence and divergence MACD.
1. Emotional indicator BRAR
Emotional indicator BRAR consists of willingness indicator and popularity indicator.
(1) willingness indicator BR. BR indicator, also known as buying and selling intention indicator, is one of the indicators in the "strength indicator judgment method". It is a kind of forecasting index that uses the closing price of the previous day as the benchmark to represent the fluctuation of the market on that day with figures to reflect the degree of market willingness to buy and sell and predict the changing trend of stocks.
Taking the calculation period as one day as an example, the calculation formula is:
N days BR =N sum of n days (H-CY) divided by sum of n days (CY-L).
Where h is the highest price of the day, l is the lowest price of the day, CY is the closing price of the previous trading day, and n is the set time parameter. Generally, the original parameter day is set to 26.
Apply rules:
① When the BR value is higher than 300, pay attention to the stock price reversal.
② When the BR value is below 50, pay attention to the stock price rebound;
③ The fluctuation of BR value is more sensitive than that of AR value. When the BR value fluctuates between 70- 150, it is a consolidation market, so we should wait and see.
(4) The rapid rise of 4)AR and BR means that the price has peaked, and the shareholding should be profitable.
⑤ If BR is lower than AR, you can buy it at a low price.
⑥ When the BR value is higher than 400, the stock price may fall back at any time and should be sold in due course; When the BR value is below 50, the stock price may rebound and rise at any time, so choose the right time to buy.
⑦ When BR rises rapidly, AR consolidates or draws back slightly, it should be shipped on rallies.
(2) popularity index ar. AR index, also known as popularity index, is a technical index that reflects the popularity of market transactions by comparing the opening price in a period of time.
Taking the calculation period as one day as an example, the calculation formula is:
N days ar = the sum of n days (H-O) divided by the sum of n days (O-L).
Among them, h is the highest price of the day, l is the lowest price of the day, o is the closing price of the day, and n is the set time parameter. Generally, the original parameter day is set to 26.
Apply rules:
① When the AR value is centered on 100 and is between plus and minus 20, that is, when the Ar value fluctuates between 80- 120, it is a consolidation market, and the stock price trend is relatively stable, and there will be no violent fluctuations.
② When the AR index rises above 150, it should be noted that the stock price will fall back.
③ When Ar is low, it means that momentum is still being enriched; If it is too low, it implies that the stock price has reached a low point and you can intervene. Generally, when the AR value falls below 70, the stock price may rebound and rise at any time.
④ High AR indicates that the market is very active; If it is too high, it means that the stock price has reached the highest range and needs to quit. There is no specific standard for the level of AR value. Under normal circumstances, the AR value rises above 150, and the stock price may fall back at any time.
⑤ From the AR curve, we can see the buying and selling momentum in a period of time, which has the function of reaching the peak or falling to the bottom before the stock price. When looking at pictures, we mainly rely on experience and cooperate with other technical indicators.
⑥AR means that the stock price has the leading effect of reaching the peak or falling to the bottom, and the AR route can show the buying and selling momentum of a certain sector.
(3) Coordination of 3)AR and BR indicators:
① In general, AR can be used alone, and BR needs to be used together with AR to play the role of BR.
(2) AR and BR rise from the low level at the same time, indicating that the popularity in the market has begun to accumulate, the bullish power has begun to prevail, the stock price will continue to rise, and investors can buy or hold it in time.
③ When AR and BR rise from the bottom for a period of time, they reach a certain high level, stagnate or start to turn around, indicating that the stock price has reached a high level, and investors should pay attention to taking profits in time.
(4) When the 4)BR falls from a high level, it will drop by 1/2. If AR has no warning signal, it means that the stock price is a normal correction on the way up, and investors can buy on dips.
⑤ When BR rises rapidly, but AR consolidates or slightly pulls back, it should be shipped on rallies.
2. Moving average convergence divergence MACD
MACD indicator is also called convergence and divergence of moving averages. Its principle and application reference: MACD from entry to mastery.
The combination of 3.3. Bra indicator and MACD indicator
The gold portfolio index composed of sentiment index BRAR and moving average convergence and divergence MACD index has the following stock selection conditions:
(1) In short and medium-term operations, it is generally necessary to choose that both DIF and MACD are positive, that is, above the zero axis, the general trend belongs to a bull market, and DIF can break through MACD before buying. However, in long-term investment, the application methods of MACD indicators are different. At this time, it is necessary to choose that both DIFF and MACD are negative, that is, they are all below the zero axis. Before the general trend is strong, if DIFF breaks through MACD upwards, you can take the initiative to prepare for opening positions.
(2) Below the zero axis, DIFF must break through MACD for more than two times.
(3) When DIFF breaks through MACD for many times, if the BR index is lower than 50 or 90, the BR index crosses the AR index at least once.
(4) The time interval between 4)MACD's two gold crosses should not be too long, and the stock price should not be too different. If the stock price has soared in the second golden cross, long-term investors need to find another target.
Generally speaking, the popularity indicator AR can be used alone, and the willingness indicator BR needs to be used together with AR; BRAR combined with moving average convergence divergence MACD is more effective.
Second, the time point suitable for long-term work
Compared with long-term investors, it is particularly important to choose a suitable time to intervene.
(A) How to choose the intervention opportunity in the general period
(1) The market is cyclical. If it rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. All stock markets are like this. When the market falls, 95% of the stocks will fall. At this time, it is best to open a position when the market stabilizes and rises again. For example, if the market attacks the 30-day moving average, you can try to open a small position. If you can stand on the 30-day moving average and continue to attack, you can add positions.
(2) Pay attention to financial reports, including annual reports, interim reports and quarterly reports. On the premise that the market stabilizes, stocks with good performance expectations will rise 2-4 weeks before the report is released.
(3) Pay attention to the division of share capital, including bonus shares and capitalization. On the premise of market stability, a large proportion of share capital division may bring an increase of more than 10%. After the plan is announced or before it is implemented, there will be a wave of rise, and investors can open positions or close positions according to this feature.
(4) Pay attention to hot spots. Every round of market rise has certain hot spots. When the market is strong, there are more opportunities to track hot spots. When the market is weak, most hot spots are unsustainable and need to be cautious.
(2) It is more scientific to enter the market in the off-season.
If long-term investors intervene when the transaction is light, they may not get the difference income in the short term, but in the long run, the relative return on investment is much higher because of the low investment cost. It is not appropriate to intervene in the busy trading period, because it is mostly the peak stage of the stock price. Even if the stock you buy is blue chip with excellent performance, you can get good dividend income, but the relative return on investment has also declined due to the high cost of stock purchase.
Investors should pay attention to the following two points when entering the market in the off-season:
(l) Encouraging long-term investors to enter the market to buy stocks when trading is light does not mean that they can buy stocks immediately when trading starts to be light. Generally speaking, the end of the off-season is the best time to buy.
(2) No one can know exactly when the off-season will end. Perhaps investors thought they entered the market at the end of the off-season, but the market remained weak for a long time, but sometimes they thought they should wait another month or two before entering the market, but the market suddenly rose and missed the good opportunity. Therefore, when investors enter the market in the off-season, they should buy down one by one, that is, buy half or 1/3 positions first, and then buy more according to market conditions. This will not only allow investors to enter the market in the off-season, but also achieve the effect of stabilizing costs.
Third, stocks suitable for long-term operation.
The length of time to market and the size of circulation are not the criteria for choosing long-term holdings. Whether stocks are suitable for long-term holding depends on whether the value of stocks is increasing. The so-called growth means that the company can continue to grow in the next 5- 10 years. Judging the growth of an enterprise needs to be judged from the aspects of industry, brand and core competitiveness, and it takes a lot of time and in-depth and meticulous investigation to get the result. Therefore, the stocks that are more suitable for long-term are mainly blue chips.
Five key points of long-term investment
The key to stock selection is not so much the trend as "Kung Fu is beyond poetry". Buy stocks that people throw away like brooms. If you rush to buy stocks, nine times out of ten you will lose money. The best way is to use wisdom and courage to choose valuable stocks in the future when everyone is throwing.
1. Long-term investment should conform to the general trend.
The so-called general trend is the macroeconomic situation of the country and the policy orientation of the country to the capital market. China stock market is produced with the support of policies, and its development cannot be separated from the regulation of policies. The long-term trend is regulated by the government, and the market is difficult to predict. Follow the policy, learn what to see, say and listen to, and follow the trend is the last word. If you are a long-term investor, you don't have to do this in every market. As long as the judgment of the general trend is accurate and the position on hand conforms to your judgment, you can catch big fish in the long run. Don't let the market lead you by the nose.
2. Choose a good chairman by stock selection.
As the stock saying goes: stock selection is to choose the chairman and the future of the stock. Performance is rising, returns are increasing, and enterprises are developing. Don't care about the gains and losses of one city and one place. I believe that the prospects of enterprises and stock prices are bright. Because the chairman is the legal representative of the enterprise and the helm of business decision-making, it is natural to be a good family member.
3. Maintain relative stability.
Don't blindly follow the trend after stock selection, hold it for a certain period of time and pay attention to the investment concept. Depending on the stock, you can hold the stock for a certain period of time, ranging from 6 to 12 months to as short as 3 months. Of course, relative stability does not mean death.
4. Pay attention to the analysis of financial statements
The selected stocks must be based on the analysis of financial statements, and there can be no financial hidden dangers. Financial statement analysis is an exciting and highly skilled practical operation, and investors, creditors and operators cannot do without this tool before making decisions. By analyzing the changes of main business, main profit and return on net assets in financial statements, we can see the quality of an enterprise.
5. Always pay attention to avoiding risks.
No matter what stock, the stock price always fluctuates. Especially when the market is depressed or uncertain, try to reduce the operation frequency or even not to operate, so as to avoid unnecessary risks. Don't blindly chase so-called dark horses and high-priced stocks. Buy well-known stocks in the industry. In short, the stock market is changing, so we should always pay attention to avoiding risks.
Stocks are not like birds, as long as they are kept and watched. It is an investment object for the purpose of appreciation. However, many people just listen to the recommendation of others in newspapers or salons, or just listen to the fragmentary introduction in newspapers and periodicals, especially the demagogic boasting and arrogance of the main force, and think they are dark horses.
First of all, it is necessary to recognize whether the industry is a sunrise industry or a sunset industry; Is it a monopoly industry, or is it a relatively heavy sector?
Secondly, just like buying a house, you can't just listen to the salesman's introduction. You have to make a field trip and shop around. You must carefully study the accurate and detailed information of listed companies, read the financial statements carefully, understand their history and present situation from the K-line chart, and know how much gold you have before you can decide how much to buy, whether to do short-term or long-term work.
This information does not constitute any investment advice, and investors should not use this information to replace their independent judgment or make decisions only based on this information.