The consumption of PVC resin in China is mainly concentrated in South China and East China. The consumption of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and Jiangsu provinces accounts for about 70%. Accounting for 0% of the total consumption in China. Among them, Guangdong and Fujian provinces have the largest market demand, but the production capacity is insufficient, and the proportion of imported PVC resin is high. The processing industry of PVC resin in Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang provinces is relatively developed, and its consumption accounts for about 34.0% of the total domestic consumption. Production and marketing in North China are basically balanced. With the development of the central and western regions and the construction of large-scale infrastructure, the consumption of PVC resin in the central and western regions will gradually increase.
2 Demand forecast
PVC resin industry is a basic and high energy-consuming industry, which is greatly influenced by demand and energy price. It is also a basic chemical raw material industry, so it is closely related to economic development. According to the situation of 20 12, the domestic PVC resin production capacity is still decreasing, while the downstream demand growth is relatively slow, the export is blocked, and the import is increased. The overall operating rate of domestic PVC resin enterprises is not high, the production capacity is idle, the market price is always hovering in the middle and low grades, and the price fluctuation range is narrowed. In addition, the listing of PVC resin futures has increased the uncertainty of price fluctuation in PVC resin market to some extent. The PVC resin industry in China will still be in a difficult integration period, and there are many factors affecting the future development of PVC resin in China.
3 export problem
① cost barrier
PVC is a basic chemical raw material, and the product difference is small. Under the perfectly competitive market structure in China, cost is the most important factor affecting the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the characteristics of the industry, raw materials and energy account for a high proportion in the product cost. The process cost of petroleum ethylene is mainly affected by petroleum price; The production cost of calcium carbide method is mainly affected by the cost of calcium carbide. Generally speaking, the cost of calcium carbide accounts for about 70% of the cost of PVC, and the cost of electricity accounts for about 60% of the cost of calcium carbide. Due to the abundant power resources and relatively low electricity price in the west, compared with the eastern calcium carbide manufacturers, the western calcium carbide manufacturers have certain advantages in cost. Enterprises with natural resources and supporting calcium carbide production will establish more solid cost barriers.
② Industrial policy barriers
In order to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of chlor-alkali industry and standardize the development of the industry, according to the principle of sustainable development of "optimized layout, orderly development, structural adjustment, energy conservation and environmental protection, safe production and technological progress", the National Development and Reform Commission formulated and issued the chlor-alkali (caustic soda and polyvinyl chloride) industry access conditions, which will be implemented from June 5438+February 1 day, 2007: technical requirements. Access conditions also set standards for new projects in terms of energy consumption indicators and environmental protection. The adjustment of industrial policy has greatly raised the threshold of capital, technology, talents and resources in chlor-alkali industry.
③ Scale obstacle
The production of PVC requires large investment scale, high fixed cost and obvious scale benefit. Large-scale enterprises are in a more favorable position in negotiations with suppliers, which is conducive to reducing the cost of raw materials. Enterprises with large production and sales volume have higher market share, greater market influence and easier access to customers. Once the production and sales of PVC production enterprises reach a large scale, the marginal cost will be gradually reduced and the ability to resist risks will be enhanced.
④ Capital barrier
At the same time, with the increasingly strict national supervision on safety and environmental protection, chlor-alkali production facilities must be equipped with corresponding large-scale environmental protection devices (for example, calcium carbide routes must be equipped with calcium carbide slag cement plants, etc.). ), and the capital investment is large, which ordinary small and medium-sized enterprises can't afford.
Therefore, manufacturers investing in this industry must have strong financial strength and certain financial barriers.
The demand for PVC in India's domestic market is increasing year by year, from 1.7 million tons in 2009 to 2.2 million tons in 20 12. Before India, there were only five domestic PVC production enterprises with a production capacity of 6.5438+0.25 million tons/year. Finolex Industrial Company of India is the largest PVC pipe manufacturer in India. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the gap is large, so India's annual PVC import volume reaches 950,000 tons. At the same time, the shortage of vinyl raw materials in India is also increasing year by year, with 722,000 tons in 2065, 438+065,438+0976,000 tons in 2065, 438+02,654.38+020,000 tons in 2065. According to statistics, from April to September of 20 12, Indian PVC imports mainly came from South Korea, Taiwan Province Province of China, Germany, the United States, Mexico and other countries and regions, among which PVC imports from South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China all exceeded 200,000 tons.
Rajesh Deshpande said that the downstream products of PVC in India are mainly PVC pipes and fittings, accounting for 43% of the total downstream products of PVC in China. In the first six months of fiscal year 20 12~20 13, the downstream demand increased by 20% and the import volume increased by 50%. At this rate, by March of 20 13, the domestic market demand in India will reach 2.2 million tons, and the development speed of PVC pipes will also reach double digits.
With the downstream consumption market of PVC expanding year by year, the PVC industry in India is facing greater development opportunities. According to Rajesh Deshpande's forecast, the growth of downstream consumer market of PVC products in India comes from many aspects. The government's investment in infrastructure construction is increasing year by year. Statistics show that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the Indian government's investment in infrastructure construction will reach 890 billion US dollars; Rural infrastructure development fund increased to $3.5 billion; The investment budget for rural drinking water and environmental sanitation reached $2.5 billion; Will invest 53 million dollars to strengthen the construction of irrigation system; In the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, 90 billion US dollars will be invested to build large-scale infrastructure, of which 4.5 billion US dollars will be sponsored by the Japanese government.
Although there is a big gap between supply and demand, due to the huge competitive advantage of imported products, the PVC industry in India is facing certain challenges. Rajesh Deshpande admits that there are still some problems in the development of Indian PVC industry: for example, users have not seen the advantages of plastic pipes compared with traditional materials; Environmentalists and non-governmental organizations explain the harm of plastic pipes from the perspective of environmental harm; Related production enterprises do not attach importance to the quality control of their own products. Therefore, if the PVC industry in India wants to achieve sustainable development, it must constantly develop new products and technologies, and pay attention to the recycling and reuse of PVC products.
Although China has the largest PVC production capacity in the world, the import of PVC by ethylene method reached a new record in 2009 due to the falling ethylene price. On the other hand, China's PVC market has been in a state of low operating rate. In the first half of 2009, China imported about 65438+200,000 tons of PVC, which was 1 10,000 tons more than the whole year of 2008. With the skyrocketing price of ethylene, the competitive advantage of PVC production by calcium carbide method in China appears. In the second half of 2009, the import of PVC in China decreased steadily. According to the data of China Customs, the import volume in June 5438+065438+ 10 was only 60646 tons.
In the first half of 20 13, affected by many unfavorable factors such as overcapacity and weak downstream demand, the overall performance of PVC industry was poor, and enterprises were in a difficult situation. However, the performance of PVC foreign trade market is eye-catching, and many data have obvious recovery adjustment compared with the same period of last year. However, insiders pointed out that with the improvement of the operating rate of PVC factories in the United States, it is expected that China's PVC foreign trade will show a trend of a rebound in imports and a steady decline in exports.
According to the statistics of China chlor-alkali industry association, by the end of June 20 13, the domestic PVC (fuzzy resin) production capacity was 23.92 million tons/year. Among them, in the first half of 20 13, the new production capacity of PVC was 860,000 tons/year, which was 350,000 tons/year, with a net increase of 5 1 10,000 tons/year. All the withdrawn production capacity is calcium carbide production equipment. The overall capacity expansion rate of the industry has obviously slowed down, but the trend of steady and increasing capacity is still continuing.
In terms of exports, the cumulative export volume of PVC in China from June to May increased by 65,438+052.4% compared with the same period of last year. From the perspective of flow, the largest export consumer market is India; The number of exports to Russia slowed down, ranking second.
In addition, since the outbreak of the financial crisis, great changes have taken place in the global market and trade environment, trade protectionism has risen in various countries, and trade frictions against Chinese enterprises' products have increased significantly.