In the same period, we also noticed that the output of large group factories will also decrease at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, and the pressure on the price of live pigs will be relatively small. How to interpret it, let's wait and see!
Soybean meal fell horizontally in both spot and futures. Basically, it's not the so-called plunge of many people. At the moment, we all seem to be used to attracting attention with ups and downs. When it comes to soybean meal, compared with the price increase some time ago, the current price drop is really insignificant and basically not worth mentioning. In addition, the current price decline does not fully represent the timing of the reversal. I hope that friends who raise pigs will treat them rationally.
Just like Zhengbang, some time ago, many people in Liang Guang said that people were going to close down and died many times. Yesterday, Zhengbang Futures went up directly.
I've been told to die so many times, but now I'm getting more and more moist.
Therefore, in the case that some information is constantly fixed, it is best not to speculate and speculate.
The price of pigs may bottom out in the second quarter, which can be regarded as the starting point of a new pig cycle.
There are two reasons:
First, since 20021,the pig price has experienced a rapid downward cycle lasting for one year, which led to two dives in a short time, and the current price base has been adjusted in place.
Second, in June of 20021year, pig breeding began to lose money. In July, 20021year, the production capacity of live pigs began to be reduced, which has been maintained for 9 months.
Moreover, because of the high feed cost this year, the breeding profit is in a state of deep loss, which is higher than in previous years, which will further weaken the enthusiasm of farmers in the first half of this year.
After the pig price bottoms out, can it smoothly enter the rapid upward cycle? This question still needs to be questioned.
The key reason is that the reduction level of pig production capacity during the year may not be as good as that in the past two pig cycles.
According to the experience of the past two pig cycles, the resolution of pig supply decreased by 15.6% and 19.8% in 2065, and decreased by 438+0.5% and 20 182% in 2009 (calculated by the number of sows capable of breeding), and the pig price rebounded by 4/kloc-in the corresponding years.
This year, it is estimated that by the end of this year, it will be only 6.5% lower than the high point in April, and the de-capacity level is much lower than the previous two rounds. The price rebound is estimated to be weaker than 20 15.
The number of fertile sows reached its peak in June of 20021year, reaching 45.64 million, and then slowly dropped to 42.68 million in February this year. According to the rule that sows can reproduce 10 months earlier, the supply of live pigs began to decrease in May this year, which lasted until 12 months.
Similar experience can refer to 20 18, when the supply of live pigs decreased by 6%, and African swine fever occurred in August in the same period, but the pig price did not continue to rise in that year, which was more like a preview of the new pig cycle.
In April of 20 18, the price of pigs bottomed out, 10.2 yuan/kg. After that, it rose continuously and reached a high point in September, 14. 1 yuan/kg. Then it fell again, and it didn't enter the rapid rising cycle until February of 20 19.
Therefore, combined with the supply of live pigs and seasonal requirements, it is estimated that the pig price bottomed out in the second quarter, and then a relatively docile upward cycle began.
Considering that the market generally estimates that pig prices will rebound in the second half of the year, if farmers are reluctant to sell, it may delay the release of production capacity in the second quarter, thus promoting the early rebound of pig prices.