I. Trend of the US dollar

The US dollar is the reference currency for foreign exchange market transactions at present, and the exchange rate of the US dollar is one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold prices. Generally speaking, the trend of the dollar and the trend of gold are negatively correlated. People who take gold will give up dollars, and those who take dollars will give up gold. The most obvious change is that when there is risk aversion in the market, the dollar usually falls, while gold rises sharply for emotional reasons. For the analysis of other foreign exchange currencies such as the US dollar, the article "Exchange rate analysis methods and foreign exchange trading knowledge that you must know when investing in foreign exchange" is recommended.

The negative correlation between the US dollar and the gold price is because the gold market price is set in US dollars. The appreciation of the US dollar will push the gold price down, while the depreciation of the US dollar will push the gold price up.

Second, war and political turmoil.

Gold has always been regarded as the first choice for safe-haven investment. One of the reasons is that in times of war and political turmoil, the increase in demand for gold will stimulate the price of gold to rise.

Specifically, in times of war and political turmoil, economic development will be greatly restricted, and any local currency may depreciate due to inflation. At this time, the importance of gold will be brought into full play. Because gold is an internationally recognized trading medium and a valuable currency in itself, at this moment, people will target gold. Buying gold will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of gold.

Of course, this situation is not absolute. For example, from 1989 to 1992, there have been many political turmoil and sporadic wars in the world, but the price of gold has not risen. The reason is that everyone held dollars at that time and gave up gold. Therefore, investors should not blindly buy gold even if they encounter geopolitical situation, but should consider other influencing factors such as the US dollar.

Third, the world financial crisis.

We can imagine how the price of gold would react if a world-class bank failed.

In fact, this situation is equivalent to a world financial crisis. People will naturally hold their money in their own hands, and banks will have a large number of runs or failures. The situation is like Argentina's 200 1 economic crisis. People all over the country have to exchange dollars from banks. In order to reserve the last investment opportunity, the country banned the exchange of dollars, which triggered a big riot and put the whole country into panic.

When the financial system of the United States and other western powers is unstable, world funds will be invested in gold, and the demand for gold will increase, and the price of gold will rise. At this time, gold played its role as a safe haven currency. On the other hand, when the financial system is stable, investors' confidence in gold will be greatly reduced, and selling gold will lead to a decline in the price of gold.

Fourth, inflation.

As we all know, the purchasing power of a country's currency is determined based on the price index: when the price of a country is stable, the purchasing power of its currency is more stable; On the contrary, the higher the currency exchange rate, the weaker the purchasing power of the currency and the less attractive it is. Therefore, if the price index of the United States and other major regions in the world remains stable, holding cash does not depreciate, and there is interest income, it will inevitably become the first choice for investors. The market does not need to buy gold to hedge.

On the contrary, if inflation is serious, holding cash is not guaranteed at all, and collecting interest can't keep up with the sharp rise in prices. People will buy gold, because the price trend of gold will rise with currency inflation at this time.

The higher the inflation in major western countries, the greater the demand for gold as a safe haven, and the higher the world gold price will be. Among them, the inflation rate in the United States is the most likely to affect the change of gold. The influence of some smaller countries is almost negligible.

Verb (abbreviation for verb) oil price

Gold itself is a hedge against inflation, which is inseparable from inflation in the United States. Rising oil prices mean that inflation will follow, so gold prices will also rise.

Why does rising oil prices mean rising inflation? Because the world's major crude oil spot and futures markets are priced in US dollars, the rise and fall of crude oil prices on the one hand reflects the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil in the world, on the other hand, it also reflects the changes of US dollar exchange rate and world inflation rate.

We can look at an example. If the price of crude oil rises, it may reflect the decline of the exchange rate of the US dollar, that is, the rise of inflation in the United States, and gold will also rise with inflation, so the price of crude oil indirectly affects the price of gold.

Interest rate of intransitive verbs

Interest rate is closely related to gold, and usually the interest rate level is inversely proportional to the price of gold.

Because investing in gold will not earn interest, the profit of investing in gold depends entirely on the price increase. Therefore, when the interest rate is low, there will be some income from investing in gold; However, if the currency interest rate rises, investors can only get more income by charging interest, and the investment value of interest-free gold will decline.

Seven. economic situation

Since ancient times, people have thought of improving spiritual consumption after solving the problem of food and clothing. The rising consumption level will naturally enhance people's desire for investment, people's ability to buy gold for preservation or decoration will be greatly increased, and the price of gold will be supported to a certain extent.

On the contrary, people live in poverty. During the economic depression, people can't even meet the basic guarantee of food and clothing. Where are they interested in investing in gold? The price of gold is bound to fall. Therefore, the economic situation of a country is also a factor that constitutes the fluctuation of gold prices.

Eight, the supply and demand of gold.

The price of gold is based on the relationship between market supply and demand. If the output of gold increases significantly, the price of gold will be affected and fall back. On the contrary, if the output stops increasing because of the miners' long-term strike, the price of gold will appreciate when the supply exceeds the demand.

Throughout the world, the countries with the greatest demand for gold are India and China, while the world's largest gold producers are South Africa, the United States, Australia and China, so we need to pay attention to all aspects of these countries as much as possible; In addition, the amount of deposits of central banks also needs attention.