The reason for the price increase is 1. The reason for the rapid increase in food prices is that pork prices have risen more. The increase of pork price is mainly affected by cyclical fluctuation, epidemic situation and feed price increase, and the output of live pigs is declining and the supply is tight. The rise in pork prices has also driven up the prices of major non-staple foods such as cattle, sheep, meat, poultry and eggs, further affecting the overall level of consumer prices. In addition, the transmission of international market prices also makes this round of price increases present "input characteristics". International food prices continue to rise. For two years in Chicago futures market, the price of wheat rose by 190%, the price of corn rose by 1 10%, and the price of soybean rose by 95%. Coupled with the rising prices of basic products such as oil, the production and transportation costs of domestic enterprises have increased, pushing up the prices of related products.
2. In addition to these well-known reasons, Professor Zhou Tianyong thinks there are two special reasons. First, during the Spring Festival and New Year's Day, it is the peak of holiday consumption for urban and rural residents to concentrate on purchasing. Second, the rain and snow disaster not only aggravated the shortage of some agricultural products, but also led to an increase in transportation costs. Under the combined influence of these two factors, the CPI in June of 5438+ 10 increased by 1.2% compared with last February.
The central government attaches great importance to the situation of rising prices and has taken a series of measures such as developing production, ensuring supply, strengthening supervision and increasing living allowances for low-income groups. Since the beginning of this year, the pace of regulation has not stopped, and the relevant departments have taken temporary price-intervention measures to implement the system of price increase declaration and price adjustment filing for some important commodities. Recently, in order to ensure domestic grain supply, the state imposed tariffs on grain exports.
Professor Zhou Tianyong suggested continuing to strengthen supervision from three aspects.
1, increase domestic supply. The state should increase its support for the production of agricultural products, increase investment in agriculture and develop modern agriculture such as large-scale agriculture and facility agriculture. After all, it is not easy to make money by raising pigs scattered and growing vegetables on one or two acres of land. In order to cope with the temporary shortage, measures such as increasing out-of-season vegetable planting can be taken. To increase supply, we should pay attention to solving the problems in transportation. First, be tactful. Second, charge less and set up fewer cards, so as to prevent the highway from charging more and more, dilute the freight, and then push up the price of agricultural products in the market.
The government should do more. When the international market price is relatively stable, some resource consumer goods such as grain should be imported appropriately. In addition, it is necessary to establish a reserve mechanism for agricultural products, raise funds for regulating agricultural products, and collect them from farmers at protective prices when agricultural products are low, so as to put them on the market when agricultural products are in short supply. In this way, we can adjust the supply and stabilize the price. As for the temporary price intervention, it can only be temporary, more of a deterrent, and the actual effect remains to be seen. The government should adopt more benign intervention methods, such as releasing accurate market price information in time, guiding farmers to breed, and so on.
3. Adjust demand through monetary policy. When prices soar, we should appropriately raise the deposit interest rate, encourage savings and curb the scale of consumption. It is necessary to control the scale of credit, because a large part of credit supply enters the consumption field through wages. It is necessary to raise the deposit reserve ratio and further recover liquidity.
Since rising prices have affected the living standards of some people, the government should continue to increase subsidies for low-income groups. In order to beat the price, Professor Zhou thinks that we should encourage entrepreneurship to increase enterprises and employment, so that people's income will increase faster than the price.
Prevent inflation 1. For this year's price trend, Professor Zhou's analysis is that it is difficult for prices to drop sharply in February, so we should be psychologically prepared for this year's price increase. In 2008, the unfavorable factors affecting prices were: last year's hikes, rising labor costs, and rising prices of resource products such as oil and land. In addition, the rationalization of domestic refined oil prices and the inversion of coal-fired electricity prices will also bring about price increases.
According to the policy formulated by the Central Economic Work Conference, the primary task of macro-control this year should be to prevent rapid economic growth from becoming overheated and structural price increase from becoming obvious inflation. After decades of market economy development, China's production and supply capacity has been greatly enhanced. Although the price has been rising for some time, this growth is not the inevitable result of the reversal and deterioration of the total supply pattern. This is the material basis for us to prevent obvious inflation, and it is also our confidence.