What we want to make clear is that there are two main factors affecting the operation of corn prices in the second half of the year: policy and supply and demand.

1, policy aspect

The main policy concern in the second half of the year is temporary storage auction. As mentioned above, there is a great demand for high-quality corn in the market at this stage, and its price is relatively firm. This market is expected to continue until the new corn harvest season, that is, after September. Therefore, the main grain source circulating in the market during this period was policy corn.

According to monitoring, as of mid-July, the total temporary storage of corn has been reduced to about 200 million tons, of which 20 13 is less than 5 million tons, 20 14 is 73.9 million tons, and 20 15 is 65,438+25 million tons. In other words, the main grain sources put into the market are basically concentrated in the corn production of 20 14.

In addition, enterprises are enthusiastic about participating in the production of 20 14 corn, and the phenomenon of high turnover and high premium will continue under the situation that the market is in short supply.

2. Supply and demand

In addition to the policy impact, domestic corn prices also have certain seasonal changes, which are closely related to staged supply and demand. First of all, from the supply side, following the policy orientation, the corn planting area will decrease by 6.5438+million mu in 2065.438+07, and the yield will also decrease. In this context, the market is also optimistic about corn prices this year, but the price increase is still limited by demand and policies.

According to the historical law, before September, the supply of corn was in a period of green and yellow, especially the price of high-quality corn was mostly rising. However, under the influence of temporary storage auction, the main trend of corn price will be close to the temporary storage auction price, so the overall trend will be in a stable and strong shock. After September, the new season corn in Huanghuai producing area of North China began to be listed, and then the corn in Northeast producing area also entered the harvesting and listing period in June 5438+ 10, and the spot supply was sufficient.

From the demand side, corn feed and industrial consumption have increased to varying degrees this year, which we have given a detailed analysis above. It is preliminarily estimated that the total corn consumption will increase to about 200 million tons this year. Under the situation of decreasing output, increasing demand and decreasing imports, there is a greater probability that corn will rise in stages this year. Especially after 10, feed consumption enters the peak season, and the corn cost of processing enterprises is greatly affected by traders, so it is more likely that the price will strengthen.

The market generally believes that the increase is about 10% of last year.