A thunderous crash in the education industry! Is the business that has been booming for more than ten years going cold?
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Serious capacity replacement prohibits the cement flat glass industry from adding new capacity
Market comment
Market comment: On Monday, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and the low capacity may restrict the rebound space of the market.
macro perspective: in July, new loans amounted to 1.45 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations.
magnesium alloy: since may, the price of magnesium ingots has been rising by nearly 2%, which is supported by short-term environmental protection factors.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 268.65, down .59%; Copper 497, up .4%; London oil distribution was 72.83, up .3%; Rebar 4369, up 2.1%; Aluminum 1466., down .2%; Shanghai nickel 1123, down 1.39%; Zhengchun 343, up 4.77%; The PVC index was 735., down .34%; Iron ore 514., up .49%; Coking coal was 1,261.5, up 1.49%; Coke 2486, up 1.51%; Rubber 124, down .32%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5838, up .7%; Corn 1893, up .96%; Palm oil was 4,898., down .37%; Cotton 1696, down .96%; Zheng Mai 2637., down 1.42%; Sugar 5125., down .43%
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1.143, down .3%; USD/RMB 6.8953, up .44%; USD/HK$ 7.8495, up .2%
Tips for new shares
1. Kangchen Pharmaceutical, subscription code 73259, subscription price 24.34 yuan.
Key recommendation
1. There was a thunder and the stock of the education industry plummeted! Is the business that has been booming for more than ten years going cold?
On the evening of August 1th, the Ministry of Justice issued the "Regulations on the Implementation of the Law of the People's Republic of China on the Promotion of Private Education (Revised Draft)" (hereinafter referred to as the draft for review), which clearly stated that "when public schools participate in the establishment of non-profit private schools, they should not gain profits by exporting their brands."
Affected by the above news, on Monday (13th), the mainland education stocks listed in Hong Kong suffered a collective setback. Although the educational concept stocks in the A-share market are mixed, there are also some varieties that show a certain decline.
Comments: Although this draft is still in the stage of soliciting opinions, it is still unknown how it will be finalized and implemented. However, in the current weak market as a whole, a little unfavorable news will cause great damage to the stock price. Therefore, it is recommended to avoid the stocks in the education sector in the short term.
(investment consultant Cai Jin's registered investment consultant certificate number: S2661192)
2. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Serious capacity replacement prohibits new production capacity in the cement flat glass industry
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on serious capacity replacement prohibiting new production capacity in the cement flat glass industry. Strictly record the construction projects of cement clinker and flat glass at the source, and may not record the construction projects with new cement clinker and flat glass production capacity in any other name or in any way.
comment: it is forbidden to increase production capacity, which is undoubtedly a good thing for listed companies in the cement and flat glass industries. It is expected that the relevant listed companies will have a high probability of staying active in the short term.
(investment consultant Cai Jin registered investment consultant certificate number: S2661192)
Market comments
1. Market comments: The market bottomed out on Monday, and the low volume may restrict the rebound space of the broader market.
On Monday, the main board market fluctuated widely due to news. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.8% at the low opening, and the decline gradually narrowed in the afternoon driven by the Growth Enterprise Market. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,785 points, down .37%. Growth enterprise market opened lower and went higher, and the index closed at 1531 points, up 1.31%. The turnover of the two cities was 3.6 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4 billion yuan compared with last Friday. In terms of sector performance, high-tech sectors such as domestic software, industrial interconnection, cloud computing, 5G, information security, electronic payment, communication equipment, blockchain, chips, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors rose sharply, while blue-chip sectors such as banks, winemaking, insurance, real estate, and home appliances were among the top losers. Technology-related sectors still performed strongly.
There were many negative news on the weekend news, including the Turkish currency exchange rate plummeted, the European stock market plummeted, the IPO suddenly accelerated, and the reduction of the interest rate of the first home loan by ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China was not clarified. Despite the favorable hedging of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's request for expanding credit supply, the market sentiment was still negatively affected, which led to the lower opening of the two markets, and the Shanghai Composite Index once fell nearly 2% in intraday trading. Fortunately, the software, industrial interconnection and other technology sectors strengthened against the market, maintaining market popularity, and the GEM took the lead in turning red, which led to a significant narrowing of the decline of the main board. Judging from the rebound of the market on Monday and the resumption of the growth enterprise market in China, the market's self-repair ability to cope with internal and external bad news has increased, especially the continued activity of the science and technology sector has a positive impact on market sentiment. At present, the low volume of energy and the lack of incremental funds determine that the market is still dominated by structural rebound, and short-term technology growth stocks are more flexible and there are more short-term opportunities. In the medium term, fully adjusted and at the bottom of the consumer white horse stocks may usher in gradual absorption opportunities.
(investment consultant Zeng Zilei registered investment consultant certificateNo.: S26613915)
2. Macro-view: in July, new loans increased by 1.45 trillion yuan, M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations.
Hong Kong Wonder News Agency reported that the data published on the website of the central bank on August 13th showed that China increased RMB loans by 1.45 trillion yuan in July, with an expected 1.2 trillion yuan and a previous value of 1.84 trillion yuan. M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with an expected 8.2% and a previous value of 8%.
investment comments: in June, M2 was 8.% year-on-year, hitting a record low. In July, M2 finally stopped falling and rebounded, and the shortage of funds in July was greatly eased compared with that in June. In July, M2 exceeded expectations to a certain extent, which is also the core logic supporting this wave of rebound, such as marginal improvement of money and re-stimulation of infrastructure. However, under the background of deleveraging, it is unlikely that M2 will continue to rise, and the government will not allow the economy to return to the old road of "flood irrigation". The logic to support the rebound in the future must be that the Sino-US trade war will gradually ease, and the short-term rebound can be moderately participated, and it is not appropriate to be too concerned.
(investment consultant Zeng Zilei registered investment consultant certificateNo.: S26613915)
3. Magnesium alloy: The price of magnesium ingots has been rising by nearly 2% since May, and short-term environmental factors have supported the increase of magnesium prices.
As of August 8th, the domestic price of magnesium ingots reached 18,5 yuan/ton, and the price of magnesium ingots continued to rise at the beginning of May, with a cumulative increase of 18.8%, while the price of magnesium alloys rose by 11.6% to 18,8 yuan/ton. The influence of short-term environmental protection on supply has become the main factor determining the price of magnesium.
investment comments: according to USG data, the global output of primary magnesium was about 1 million tons in 216, and that of China was 871, tons, accounting for 87% of the global output. From January to June this year, China * * * produced 378,2 tons of raw magnesium, a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%, mainly due to the strict environmental protection and routine maintenance in summer, which will affect the global supply of raw magnesium. The global demand for magnesium alloys is mainly used in the automobile field, accounting for 75%, 3C accounting for 15%, and aerospace and other fields accounting for 1%. With the development of automobile lightweight, the consumption of magnesium alloys for bicycles will continue to increase in the future, and the demand for magnesium alloys will continue to grow. Short-term shortage of supply and demand is expected to support magnesium prices to continue to rise, and investors can pay attention to magnesium alloy-related stocks.
(investment consultant Zeng Zilei registered investment consultant certificateNo.: S26613915)
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