Content: 1. Analysis of gold supply and demand II. Dollars and gold. Inflation and expected annualized interest rate. Shortcomings and Limitations of Basic Analysis Analysis of Gold Supply and Demand Before 1970s, gold prices were basically determined by governments or central banks, and the international gold prices were relatively stable. In the early 1970s, the price of gold was no longer directly linked to the US dollar, and it gradually became market-oriented. Specifically, it can be divided into the following aspects: supply: gold mining: A. In recent years, the annual gold mining in the world is about 2,500 tons, and the annual output changes smoothly. B. The world's proven unexploited gold reserves are about 70,000 tons, which can only be mined for 25 years. C. The output of major gold-producing countries such as South Africa and the United States has declined, and the exploration of large-scale gold mines may be small. The normal procedure for mining large gold deposits generally takes 7- 10 years. In the long-term decline after e. 1980, the impact of declining mining input and expenditure on prices: the gold mining industry is limited by its own industry characteristics, and its sensitivity to prices is low. It takes a long time for the sharp rise in prices to reflect the increase in output. Example: The price of gold soared to $850 at 1979- 1980, but the amount of gold mined did not change significantly until 198 1 and increased significantly at 1983. The history and present situation of gold production in the world: From the overall development of human society,19th century is a very important century. In the thousands of years before the19th century, human beings produced less than 10000 tons of gold, for example, in the18th century, only 200 tons of gold were produced. By the19th century, gold production reached a new level. During the period of 100, the gold produced reached 1. 1.5 million tons, 57.5 times that of18th century, in which 1.850- 1.900 years were used. After entering the 20th century, on the whole, the world's gold output showed an upward trend, and there were several times when the output increased greatly. 1900, the world gold output reached 300 tons/year, 700 tons/year in the early 20th century, 1300 tons/year in the 1930s, and nearly 1500 tons in the 1960s. In the 1980s, the world gold output exceeded 2,000 tons, and the overall output has been increasing since the 1990s. Since the 1990s, the world gold output has been relatively stable, and the average world gold output has been stable at around 2,600 tons since the 20th century. Although the gold production of some countries has increased, such as Australia, Peru and Indonesia, the gold production of South Africa, the United States and other major gold producing countries is declining. In addition, due to the long investment cycle and high mining cost in the gold mining industry. From the historical data, it is impossible for the global mineral gold to grow rapidly. Therefore, we believe that the world gold output will not change greatly in the next few years and will remain relatively stable. According to scientists' calculations, there are about 6 trillion tons of gold resources in the earth's crust, and the per capita income exceeds 1000 tons. But up to now, the world's proven gold resources are only 89,000 tons, with a reserve base of 77,000 tons and a reserve of 48,000 tons. By the end of 2005, the gold mined by human beings was only 1.25 million tons, accounting for about one-sixth of the total reserves, and the average per capita was only 20 grams. Gold is unevenly distributed on the earth. Although there are more than 80 countries producing gold in the world, the domestic gold output varies greatly, but the output is quite uneven. Among them, the top 10 gold producing countries in the world in 2004 were: South Africa, the United States, Australia, China, Russia, Peru, Canada, Indonesia, Uzbekistan and Papua New Guinea. Among them, China's gold output has been ranked fourth in the world in recent years. In 2004, South Africa, Australia and the United States accounted for 13.9%, 10.6% and 10.2% of the world's total gold output respectively. China's gold production has reached 8.6%. The world mines about 2600 tons of gold every year, but this is the result of continuous exploration and efforts for thousands of years. From the overall development of human society, the19th century is undoubtedly a very important century. /kloc-before the 0/9th century, the level of gold productivity in human society was very low. Some people think that in the thousands of years before19th century, the total amount of gold produced by human beings was less than 10000 tons, for example, it was only 200 tons in18th century. Due to the discovery of a series of gold resources in the period of 19, the gold output has been greatly improved since then, especially in the 50 years in the second half of 19 century, which exceeded the sum of the previous 5,000 years. The new era of gold production began in19th century, when Yan Po gold mine in the eastern Urals was discovered in Russia in the middle of18th century. This discovery made the Russian gold mining industry begin to recover, but the output was not very high at that time, and only 2.6 tons of gold were produced 40 years later, but it showed the tsar hope and strengthened the exploration of gold resources. In the following 70 years, Russia discovered and mined many gold mines. By 1840, Russia's annual gold output has reached 43.5 tons, and by 1847, Russia's annual gold output accounts for 60% of the world's total. However, these achievements of Russians are somewhat dwarfed by those of California and Australia. 1848 gold was discovered in California, and soon thousands of people gathered here to look for gold. In the first year, it produced 250,000 US dollars of gold, which increased 40 times in the second year. After that, the gold output increased year by year, reaching 77 tons in 1852 and 93 tons in 1853. After the discovery of gold in the United States 185 1 year, gold was discovered in Australia, and the gold production in Australia began to increase rapidly. 1852 Australia produced 26.4 tons of gold, and 1853 the annual output of gold reached 70 tons. Later, 1886 discovered gold in South Africa. 1887, South Africa's gold production was only 1.2 tons. Five years later, it increased 25 times to 30 tons, 1898 to 120 tons, ranking first in the world. Up to now, South Africa has produced 40% of the world's total mineral gold for thousands of years. Canada is the last bus to catch up with the great development of gold productivity in the19th century. 1896, two gold prospectors, Henderson and Kamak, discovered gold while fishing for salmon in Klondike, thus giving birth to a new city-Dawson City. The gold in this area was mined until 1966. Summarizing the history of world gold production in the19th century, we can see that during the100th century, the world * * * produced less than 200 tons of gold, and in the19th century, the gold output reached a new level, reaching1. Among them, 1850- 1900 produced 10000 tons, that is to say, in the last 50 years of 19 century, the world produced 200 tons of gold every year. After entering the 20th century, on the whole, the world's gold output showed an upward trend, and there were several times when the output increased greatly. 1900, the world gold output reached 300 tons/year, 700 tons/year in the early 20th century, 1300 tons/year in the 1930s, and nearly 1500 tons in the 1960s. In the 1980s, the world gold output exceeded 2,000 tons, and the overall output has been increasing since the 1990s. /kloc-The basic pattern of the world gold productivity distribution formed in the 0/9th century continues to this day, and the gold-producing countries formed in the 0/9th century are still the most important gold-producing countries in the world today. Since 1980, South Africa's gold production has been steadily declining, especially after the 1990s, with a slight acceleration, but its gold production still ranks first in the world. The gold output of the United States has been in a state of continuous growth, especially since the late 1980 s, which has jumped to the second place in the world; However, from the late 1980s to the early 1990s, Australia's gold production tended to be stable with little change. Major gold producers in the world: South Africa, the United States, Australia, Russia, Canada and China. However, in the past century, some changes have taken place in the world gold production pattern, especially in the United States and Africa, while the gold production in Peru, Argentina and Southeast Asia in South America has increased significantly. Among them, Latin America's gold production has accounted for 14% of the world. Although the gold output of some countries has increased, such as Australia, Peru and Indonesia, the gold output of South Africa, the United States and other major gold producing countries is declining, especially South Africa, whose output in 2005 decreased by 65,438+05% to only about 300 tons, which will make it difficult to improve the global gold output. In addition, due to the long investment cycle and high mining cost in the gold industry, if gold is mined in a place, it will take 7- 10 years to produce gold according to normal procedures, because light geological exploration will take 2-3 years, and then engineering, ore mining and re-smelting will take 4-5 years at the earliest. From the historical data, it is impossible for the global mineral gold quantity to increase rapidly, and the world gold output will not change much in the next few years, but will remain relatively stable. Directory: 1. Analysis of gold supply and demand II. Dollars and gold. Inflation and expected annualized interest rate. Shortcomings and limitations of basic analysis There are two main aspects of the impact of US dollar and gold dollar on the gold market. First of all, the US dollar is the quoted currency in the international gold market, so it is negatively related to the price of gold. Assuming that the value of gold itself has not changed, the dollar has fallen. Then the price of gold is rising. On the other hand, gold is used as an alternative investment tool for dollar assets. In fact, in the years before 2005, one of the main factors for the rise of gold price was the sharp decline of the US dollar for three consecutive years. According to the statistics of the historical data in the past 30 years, the negative correlation between the US dollar and gold is about 80%. From the data of the past ten years, as shown in the following figure, from the correlation chart of the US dollar and gold from 1995 to 2003, it can be seen that the relationship between the US dollar and gold is approaching-1%. Therefore, when we analyze the trend of gold price, the change of US dollar exchange rate is an important reference. Dollar index: Usually, the tool we use to analyze the trend of the dollar is the dollar index, which is an index that comprehensively reflects the exchange rate of the dollar in the international foreign exchange market and is used to measure the degree of exchange rate change of the dollar against a basket of currencies. It measures the strength of the US dollar by calculating the comprehensive rate of change between the US dollar and a selected basket of currencies, thus indirectly reflecting the changes in US export competitiveness and import costs. If the dollar index falls, it means that the dollar depreciates against other major currencies. The calculation principle of dollar index futures is based on the trade settlement between major countries in the world and the United States, with 100 as the dividing line, and the overall strength of the dollar is calculated in a weighted way. After1October 0999+65438+65438, the subject matter of the futures contract was adjusted from ten countries to six countries, and the euro became the most important and weighted currency, accounting for 57.6%. Therefore, the fluctuation of the euro has the greatest influence on the strength of the US dollar index. Weight of the US dollar index: Euro57.6 yen 13.6 pounds10.9 Canadian dollars 9. 1 Swedish krona 4.2 Swiss francs 3.6 US dollar index USDX is calculated with reference to the geometric average weighted value of the exchange rate changes of six currencies against the US dollar in March 1973. Its value is measured by 100.00. The quotation of 105.50 means that its value has increased by 5.50% since March 1973. March 1973 is chosen as the reference point because it is a historic moment of the turning point in the foreign exchange market. Since then, major trading countries have allowed their currencies to float freely with the currencies of another country. The agreement was reached at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., symbolizing the victory of free trade theorists. The Smithsonian Agreement replaced the unsuccessful fixed exchange rate system reached in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire about 25 years ago. The current USDX level reflects the average value of the US dollar relative to the benchmark 1973. Up to now, the US dollar index has soared to 165 and also fell below 80 points. This change feature is widely compared with the futures stock index in quantity and change rate. The chart below shows the comparison between the US dollar index and new york futures gold price, from which we can clearly see the negative correlation between them. Directory: 1. Analysis of gold supply and demand II. Dollars and gold. Inflation and expected annualized interest rate. Shortcomings and Limitations of Basic Analysis As the only non-credit currency in the world, gold has a very high value. Unlike other currencies, which are only representatives of value, its own value can be ignored. In extreme cases, money will be equivalent to paper, but gold will never lose its value as a precious metal. Therefore, it can be said that gold can be regarded as a representative of eternal value. The most obvious embodiment of this significance is the investment value of gold in the era of inflation-paper money will depreciate because of inflation, but gold will not. Take the famous tailor street suit in Britain as an example. For hundreds of years, the price has been five or six ounces of gold, which proves that the purchasing power of gold has remained unchanged for a long time. Hundreds of years ago, you could buy a suit for tens of pounds, but now you can only buy one sleeve. Therefore, in the era of rampant currency liquidity and rampant inflation, gold will be favored by investors because of its anti-inflation characteristics. What has an important influence on the price of gold is the actual expected annualized interest rate after deducting inflation, which is the opportunity cost of holding gold. When the actual expected annualized interest rate is negative, people prefer to hold gold. Example: actual expected annualized interest rate = nominal expected annualized interest rate-inflation rate. Suppose the inflation rate is 4%, the expected annualized interest rate of nominal bank deposits is 3%, and the actual expected annualized interest rate is-1%.After one year, the principal and interest of a deposit 100 yuan is 104 yuan. 104 yuan? Directory: 1. Analysis of gold supply and demand II. Dollars and gold. Inflation and expected annualized interest rate. Shortcomings and limitations of fundamental analysis The first step for investors before buying and selling gold is fundamental analysis. Without basic analysis, investors can't know the current situation of the market, nor can they know whether the gold market is shrinking or growing; Whether the market conditions are overheated; Whether to enter or leave now; Whether the investment funds are increased or decreased; What is the market trend? All these basic factor analysis are indispensable steps. However, there are still some limitations in the basic analysis of gold: the data of some gold-producing countries are difficult to obtain or lag behind, some gold-producing countries are unwilling to announce the gold production figures to the international community, or there is a certain lag in publishing the figures, and the figures can only be estimated. Therefore, when these countries are collecting foreign exchange, the amount of gold in their markets may completely shock the market. The basic analysis in this respect is somewhat incomplete. In the open market, it is difficult to accurately calculate the gold supply figures from the demand figures. Just add up the annual output of major gold producing countries, and you can get more effective figures. . However, it is more difficult to obtain demand data. For example, some enterprises will melt gold coins for industrial production, so the demand figures include the factor of double counting. Therefore, it is impossible to make fundamental analysis with accurate figures. Can't tell us when to enter the market. After fundamental analysis, we all know that the price of gold is in the stage of big bull market. But when will you step in? Do more now, and the price may be lower the day after tomorrow. By next week, it may be the lowest price now. Therefore, fundamental analysis can only tell us the general trend of gold prices, and can not provide us with the best time to enter the market at all. Can't capture the peaks and valleys, even in the big bull market stage, the price of gold will rise and fall. If you can grasp the trend of each wave, absorb it at a high point and sell it at a low point, the profit you get will be much higher than what you simply hold. The basic analysis is that these subtle changes can't be captured. We can only analyze the general trend of the market, but we can't answer the reasons for the rise and fall of the market price, which is based on basic analysis. Therefore, in addition to basic analysis, gold trading needs to be supplemented by technical analysis.