Due to the continuous "double opposition" of American steel exports to China, the proportion of China steel exports to the United States has been low in recent years. In 20 17, the United States imported 35.93 million tons of steel from China and 784,000 tons of steel, ranking 1 1, accounting for only 2.2% of the total imports of the United States. In recent years, China steel exports have taken a "dark" route. Specifically, it is exported to Southeast Asia first, then indirectly to the United States, or exported to South Korea for further processing and then exported to the United States. The total export volume of these steels is even greater than that directly exported to the United States. China's spot market is still dominated by domestic sales, and the export volume is almost negligible. China's domestic demand is still good, so don't worry too much. China's overall economic situation is still good, with strong domestic demand.

New energy industry-limited impact, continuous attention

In 20 17, the export of new energy vehicles in China was outstanding, with the export volume reaching106,000 vehicles, of which the automobile export accounted for10/0/%; In 20 17, the export value of new energy vehicles reached 327 million USD. From the perspective of exporting countries, in 20 17, China exported 2 14 pure electric passenger cars to the United States, with an amount of US$ 65,438+6500 yuan. The number of plug-in hybrid passenger cars exported to the United States is 1042, amounting to $6 1 15000, ranking first among all exporting countries.

The strategic pace of some independent brands in China who want to enter the American market may be affected. However, the United States is not the main exporter of new energy vehicles in China, and its own brands have not used American technology and spare parts, which has little impact on sales. On the contrary, American brands such as Tesla may be subject to high tariffs when they enter China. "As early as the double opposition, some models of American cars were greatly affected. If the United States fights such a big trade war, the automobile industry will definitely be affected. As early as 20 1 1, the Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on some large-displacement imported cars from the United States, involving companies such as General Motors, Chrysler, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Honda. "

Global oil and gas industry-all the way down

For the oil and gas industry, pipelines, platforms, oil rigs and processing equipment in the whole oil supply chain depend on steel. The consumption of imported steel for oil and gas pipelines in the United States accounts for three-quarters of the total steel used in construction projects.

The United States imposes tariffs on goods from China, which is likely to damage investment in new LNG projects. Liquefied natural gas projects have always been expensive and usually require buyers to make long-term commitments at a fixed price in order to provide financial certainty for developers. Without this guarantee, the developer may not give the green light to the lng terminal project.

A trade war may drag down the global economy. Although last week's geopolitical crisis led to an increase in oil prices, with the Sino-US trade confrontation, the stock market situation plummeted and energy stocks also plummeted. At present, the market has speculated that Trump's trade war is not good news for global economic growth. Affected by this, oil prices will also be dragged down, all the way down.

Automobile industry-cars are good, but there are problems with parts.

Because there are not many cars imported and exported between China and the United States, the impact on imported cars will not be too great. 20 17 among the top ten companies in China, American car companies only have Lincoln brand. Lincoln imported 64,700 vehicles into China market in 2065,438+07, up 78.5% year-on-year. In addition, in the field of new energy vehicles, the number of Tesla imported from China in 2065438+2007 was 1.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 5 1.6%. Compared with China's annual sales base of more than 20 million vehicles, the changes in China-US automobile import market will not have much impact on the overall automobile market.

But it will have a certain negative impact on China's auto parts export. Many auto parts in China are imported from the world, and auto parts enterprises import raw materials, and then export them after production in China, so the influence is relatively wide.

Communication industry-low dependence and limited influence

Because the United States has maintained a policy of prohibiting American operators from using China's major communication equipment products in China, Huawei, ZTE and other communication network equipment are basically not sold in the United States, and their market dependence is low, so the trade war has little impact on them.

Chemical industry-short-term impact, no big problem

Sino-US trade war will increase the trade cost of the chemical industry and its upstream and downstream, but it will have little impact on the chemical industry in the short term. The products that may be involved in this survey are concentrated in high-tech products such as electromechanical, communication and information technology products, while the chemical industry is dominated by raw materials, involving fewer technical disputes, and domestic new materials are mainly aimed at import substitution; Moreover, in 20 17, the trade deficit between China and the United States in chemical industry and related industries was 700 million dollars, and there was no trade surplus. Our 30 1 survey has little impact on the chemical industry for the time being.

Textile and garment industry-order transfer has a great influence.

China is the largest exporter of textiles and clothing in the world. At the same time, the export of textiles and clothing is also an important part of China's trade export. The proportion of textile and garment exports in China's total foreign trade remains at around 13%. In China's top 10 textile and garment export market, the United States ranks first, and there is a huge trade surplus between China and the United States in textile and garment trade. At present, the tariffs of the United States on this industry are not very high. For example, the tariff of ordinary clothing products in China is generally around 10-20%. If the tariff on these products is raised to 45%, it will have a great impact on exports. The United States has many trading partners. In addition to China, you can purchase from Vietnamese, Mexican, Indian and other places, and it is easy to transfer orders. As a powerful card of the United States in the trade war, the textile and garment industry will be greatly impacted.

Agricultural products industry-the war has not yet started, and it has become a serious disaster.

Against the background of escalating trade friction between the United States and China, agricultural products have become the main attack area of the war. China is the largest buyer of agricultural products in the world, mainly meeting the needs of feed, edible oil and biofuels. At present, China is not only the largest soybean importer in the world, but also the largest soybean buyer in the United States, and soybean is also the largest agricultural product exported by the United States to China. According to the statistics of American Soybean Association,13 soybeans produced by American farmers are sold to China every year, with a total value of about1400 million US dollars. The association said in a statement on Thursday that if China retaliates against soybean fields, many American farmers will lose their ability to make money and cannot live. Therefore, if China retaliates against American soybeans and pork, it will depress the prices of corresponding agricultural products in the United States due to reduced demand. Under the influence of external factors that Argentina reduced soybean meal exports due to drought this year, the price of soybean meal in the United States is facing upward pressure, which in turn increases the production cost of American pig farmers.

Military industry-strong all day, the main force is popular.

Sino-US trade friction has caused great turmoil in the global market, but the more the market sentiment fluctuates greatly, the more it is necessary to maintain a rational attitude. In the long run, the Sino-US trade conflict will push China to further increase its investment in domestic scientific and technological innovation and enhance the competitiveness of its own brands. Under the background of Sino-US trade war, the military industry is one of the sectors least affected by it, and it deserves to get excess returns. On March 24th, the second aircraft of China Commercial Aircraft C9 19 was successfully tested. In addition, with the recent Sino-US trade war continuing to ferment, Boeing, the largest exporter of the United States, may be included in the list of products whose concessions are suspended in China, and the C9 19 industrial chain is expected to indirectly benefit from the import substitution effect brought about by the escalation of the trade war.

Electronic industry-certain influence, wait-and-see attitude

The mainland exports a large proportion of electronic terminals to the United States, but domestic brands sell less in the United States. In 20 17, the total amount of electronic and communication products exported by the mainland to the United States was about160 billion US dollars, accounting for about 35% of the total exports to the United States. Generally speaking, the export of consumer electronics products from the mainland to the United States is mainly based on assembly and OEM of foreign brands. Domestic brand market development is still concentrated outside North America, and its supply chain is less affected by tariff increase.

There is the possibility that the assembly and OEM links will move out, and the upstream parts still tend to be concentrated in the mainland. In the context of "trade war", tariffs will become an important consideration for the location selection of electronic product assembly links. In the past decade, China's electronics industry has completed the import substitution in the low-end field, and at the same time ushered in a historic opportunity for industrial upgrading. We judge that the low-end assembly link will move abroad in the future (for example, after India raised the tariff on mobile phones, some mobile phone manufacturers moved the assembly link to Indonesia, which enjoys preferential tariffs). Under the favorable factors such as capital advantage and engineer bonus, mainland component enterprises are expected to upgrade to mid-to high-end product lines and continue to enhance their industrial discourse power.

China is an important market for American electronics companies. The proportion of electronic information products in American exports to China is about 40%, among which high-end chips and core equipment are the main electronic products. If the "trade war" is fermented, it will also have a greater negative impact on the above-mentioned American enterprises.