Requirements for publishing academic papers
1, determine your own academic paper major and classification direction.
2. Consult journals, find relevant journals suitable for your academic papers, and fully understand and evaluate their standardization, legitimacy and professionalism.
3. Find an institution or magazine. On the homepage of this magazine, I have to remind you that its legality and regularity must be confirmed. For these institutions, the magazine should also make a comprehensive understanding and evaluation, and make a prudent conclusion.
4. reach an agreement and pay a deposit. Then the academic papers are revised according to the opinions of editors or peer reviewers.
5. Pay off the balance after receiving the notice of using the manuscript. After the academic papers are successfully published, magazines or related institutions will send you samples.
6. Receive a sample publication and confirm that your academic paper has been published successfully. (Remember to confirm that the periodical is a regular publication, and go to HowNet to check whether it has been included)
? 9. 1 1? Influence on American economy and world economy
Executive summary? 9. 1 1 event? It has caused great harm and economic losses to the United States and will also have a far-reaching impact on the American economy and the world economy.
Direct economic losses in the United States
The loss caused by the explosion to the World Trade Center and the Pentagon itself is about $5 billion to $654.38+0.5 billion, and its insurance compensation will reach $30 billion. The number of missing and dead people caused by the explosion exceeds 5,000, and the total life insurance compensation is expected to exceed 6 billion US dollars. The airline has announced that it will lay off 20,000 employees, and it is estimated that the number of layoffs will reach 65,438+10,000. There are 55 thousand people flying in the United States every day, and the losses caused by grounding are as high as hundreds of millions of dollars every day. At present, airlines require the government to provide 24 billion dollars in aid, otherwise, the company is in danger of bankruptcy. Due to the grounding of aircraft, the tourism industry suffered heavy losses. Many famous large financial institutions are located in the World Trade Center building, including Morgan Stanley Investment Bank, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Cantgerald Company, Thomson Financial Company, charles schwab Company, Badis Capital Company, Merrill Lynch Company, American Express Company, etc. , heavy losses. In the first four days, the cumulative business loss reached US$ 6,543.8 billion (daily business loss was about US$ 250 million), and it is still unknown when it will resume operation in the future.
As the stock market and foreign exchange market were closed, the exchange rate of the US dollar fell 1.8% against the euro and 1.5% against the Japanese yen. What is the reason for the US stock market? 9. 1 1 event? After four trading days, it will open on Monday, when the new york Stock Exchange will open? Dow? Below 9000 points? Na Zhi? It also fell 1 15 points. Within a week? Dow? It fell by 1369.7 points, with a drop of more than 14%, which set a new record of one-week decline after the war and fell back from the beginning of the year. Dow? It has dropped by 24%. ? Na Zhi? 2 1 closed at 1423. 19, down 16% in one week, down 42% from the beginning of the year. Within a week, the market value loss of the US stock market reached $65,438 +0.4 trillion. ? Dow? And then what? Na Zhi? Have entered a bear market. The above losses can be calculated directly. In addition, there are many indirect losses that cannot be directly calculated.
Short-term impact on the US economy
From the perspective of economic growth, this sudden incident is undoubtedly worse for the faltering American economy waiting for recovery. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the trend of American economy has been bad. In 2000, GDP increased by nearly 5%, 200 1 in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter. It was originally expected that it would pick up in the third quarter to the fourth quarter. However, after this incident, the pace of recovery will be greatly slowed down, and there will be a W-shaped or U-shaped economic trend instead of a V-shaped development curve. According to the American blue-chip economic indicators magazine? 9. 1 1 event? After a survey by four economists in the United States, 8 1.8% believed that the terrorist incident had plunged the American economy into recession, and they predicted that the GDP of the United States would drop by 0.52% in the third quarter and 0.74% in the fourth quarter.
From the financial field, due to the short-term closure of securities, futures and materials markets, the global financial market has fallen into serious chaos and produced a chain reaction. In the banking industry, due to the heavy loss of life and property caused by the incident, some companies and individuals may have bad debts, and the bad debts of some American banks will increase rapidly, thus affecting the operating efficiency of banks. In the insurance industry, due to the heavy loss of life insurance, which exceeds the compensation ability of insurance companies, on the one hand, it may lead to the bankruptcy of some insurance companies, on the other hand, it will lead to the increase of insurance costs in the future, thus expanding the insurance expenditure of American citizens. In the foreign exchange market, the global foreign exchange market and the gold market fluctuated greatly due to the sharp decline of the US dollar in the short term. The chaos in the capital market and the decline in consumer confidence disrupted the established plan of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and it was forced to announce the eighth interest rate cut this year in advance on September 17, with a cumulative interest rate cut of 3.5 percentage points, exceeding the economic depression in the 1930s.
From the perspective of international trade, because the US government announced that IT would immediately close the doors of all countries on the day of the incident, the United States interrupted its logistics with all countries and regions in the world, and many companies, especially those that rely heavily on foreign markets, such as the IT assembly industry in Southeast Asia, were paralyzed due to the interruption of production links. The crisis caused the world gold and silver prices to soar. The price of crude oil soared first, then plummeted. It is expected that the prices of other metals such as copper and precious metals will also fluctuate sharply. If the war spreads to the Middle East, the consequences will be even more serious.
Impact on the world economy
During the closing of the US stock market, the global stock market has fallen by more than 10%, and the global stock market continued to fall within one week after the US stock market resumed trading. Within a week, the London Financial Times index fell by 322 points; Frankfurt DAX30 index fell 328.75 points; Paris CAC-40 index fell 256.62 points; The Tokyo stock market fell below the 65438+100000 mark and fell to the lowest point since 18. Taiwan Province stock market closed at 359 1.85, the lowest level in nine years; Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed at 8934, the lowest point since June 1998. According to a preliminary estimate, the market value loss of other stock markets in the world except the United States is about10.5 trillion US dollars in a week due to the collapse of the US stock market. In other words, the market value loss of global stock markets, including the United States, in one week is equivalent to the gross national product created by China in three years.
The capital market suffered heavy losses, which directly affected the global foreign direct investment. This year, global foreign direct investment will drop by more than 40%, and cross-border mergers and acquisitions will drop by more than 1/3. The decrease of investment income will lead to the contraction of consumer demand and the scale of global foreign trade will drop sharply. According to Japan's Asahi Shimbun, Singapore may experience negative growth this year. Tourism in Thailand may be reduced by 20%. South Korea has actively lowered its economic growth rate this year; The semiconductor industry in Taiwan Province Province has been hit hard, and the economic growth rate may drop to-1%; Japan's negative economic growth this year is inevitable; The tragedy in the United States has shattered Europe's hopes for economic recovery this year. In the case of uncertain prospects, people are reluctant to make further predictions about pessimistic prospects.
Impact on China's economy
The bombing of the World Trade Center China Company is a direct loss for our country. The economic recovery in the United States is even worse, bearing the brunt of China's foreign trade. Because it may affect the economic recovery of the United States and reduce consumer demand and imports, and the United States is China's largest trading partner, accounting for 25% of China's foreign trade exports (according to US statistics, it is 40%). So this kind of influence will appear in the second half of this year, which will directly affect China's foreign trade export in the second half of this year. For China's foreign trade, this year can be described as? It never rains but it pours? Can you still describe it? The city gate caught fire, hurting the fish in the pool? .
In addition, China's civil aviation flights to the United States were directly affected by the crisis, and other flights were also affected to varying degrees. The short-term business of the banking industry suffered losses. The rising international crude oil price caused by the crisis will increase China's import cost. Projects in the Arab world may encounter resistance, so they cannot be implemented in practice. The foreign capital financing plan for enterprises to go public in the United States was blocked, and the stock market was depressed due to the collapse of the American stock market and the world stock market, thus affecting the development of China's capital market.
Long-term impact on the American economy
The above is about the short-term impact of the explosion on the US and the world economy, but it cannot be considered that the US economy has entered a full-scale recession, nor can it be compared with the economic crisis in the 1930s, which was caused by the overall overproduction and the total paralysis of the financial system. The crisis was caused by external forces, not internal economic contradictions. The current overproduction is just? New economy? The local overproduction of the department, other departments, such as real estate and some traditional industrial departments, have not gone wrong, and the financial system has not been paralyzed. Therefore, the incident only temporarily hit the confidence of consumers and investors, and the impact was short-lived. In the long run, confidence will be rebuilt. This is because:
First, foreign capital has not completely withdrawn, just waiting to see. They think: 1 The US economy is strong, accounting for more than 1/4 of the global economy. More than half of foreign customers are looking for higher spreads (higher than those in Japan and Europe). For the sake of capital security, although the interest rates in some areas of the world, such as those in financial crisis, are much higher than those in the United States, it is difficult to compete with the United States for capital because of political and economic instability. The United States can use force against other countries in a crisis, while other countries do not have the economic and military strength to use force in a crisis. The return on equity capital in the United States is also much higher than that in Japan, Europe and most developing countries. The transaction cost of American capital market is low. Its liquidity is much higher than other capital markets in the world. American open capital market pays more attention to protecting innovation and small and medium investors than other markets in the world, and opposes internal transactions. Unlike Europe and Japan, the American economy is relatively stable and full of vitality.
Second, the labor productivity of the United States is still the highest in the world, the unemployment rate is only 4.9%, which is lower than that of Europe, and the inflation rate is only 2% ~ 3%. The bombing did not shake the economic foundation of the United States.
Third, the US dollar has weakened in the short term due to the crisis, but in the long run, the US government will, as always, adhere to a strong US dollar policy. The strong dollar can persist because: from the perspective of foreign trade, the strong dollar makes things imported by the United States cheaper; In the capital market, three-quarters of the world's capital is denominated in dollars. If the dollar depreciates, these assets will also depreciate; From the perspective of taxation, the government wants to reduce taxes. If it depreciates, the average American will get 400-500 dollars in tax this year, which will be greatly reduced. In addition, the United States can borrow money everywhere to support the development of its high-tech industry. However, the value of the dollar is indeed overvalued. For example, how high the water is, how high the dam is built. If one day the whole American economy collapses, the dam will burst like a flash flood.
Fourth, if the United States uses force against Afghanistan, it will increase the burden on American taxpayers, reduce labor productivity and delay economic recovery in the short term. But in history, the United States made a fortune by two world wars, and the Vietnam War after World War II stimulated the economic growth of the United States 106 months. In the Gulf War in the 1990s, the oil crisis led to a short-term economic recession, but after overcoming the recession, the American economy continued the longest economic growth after the war, lasting more than 1 15 months. At present, the United States has a fiscal surplus. If war is launched, the United States threatens to use deficit finance to maintain economic operation. In the long run, war investment can stimulate domestic demand, digest the current surplus supply in the United States, and get rid of the negative impact of the downturn in the American economy.
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