Judging from the high spot price, the current supply and demand situation is obviously very tight and will continue in the near future. There is no doubt that demand is still strong. As for the duration, it depends on the effect of macro-control in China.

You can refer to official economic data, especially the fixed investment data of related industries such as electricity.

On the other hand, we must see clearly the future trend of the basic supply and demand relationship. Judging from the estimation of major professional organizations, it is an indisputable fact that the relationship between supply and demand in the global copper market tends to ease at the current price. Judging from the official data of major suppliers and consumers, the supply has indeed increased by a large margin, and many idle production capacities have been reused. Moreover, because of the huge excess profits, a large amount of capital has flowed into the copper industry, and the production capacity is also expanding. However, due to the investment cycle, it takes a relatively long time to impact the current balance between supply and demand. At the same time, the growth rate of demand dropped significantly from the previous period. Therefore, based on the above analysis, it is the general trend that the relationship between supply and demand in the copper market tends to ease gradually, and the continuation of short-term tension is also a reality. We must be aware of these directional problems.

Second, the current key factors affecting copper prices

At present, there are two key factors affecting copper prices: one is the run on copper in Shanghai in recent months, and the other is the exchange rate of the US dollar. As for the domestic warehouse crowding problem, the author thinks that the 65438+February contract is a foregone conclusion, and whether the 65438+ 10 contract will continue to be squeezed is still unknown. According to unconfirmed news circulating recently, the State Reserve originally planned to receive the goods in June+February, 5438, but it has not been approved by the relevant departments recently, so the State Reserve will no longer receive the goods in June+February, 5438 to replenish its inventory, and may also put a certain amount of electrolytic copper into the market to stabilize the copper price. Judging from the recent disk, this news should not be groundless. However, the recent changes in positions only tell us this information: regardless of whether the State Reserve receives goods or not, the main bulls headed by COFCO will continue to squeeze positions. On the other hand, even if the State Reserve releases stocks to stabilize copper prices, it will only be a drop in the bucket, which may suppress copper prices in the short term, but the increase of copper prices may be even greater afterwards; Moreover, historical experience and lessons show that government intervention against the market will eventually fail. Therefore, it is inevitable to squeeze warehouses in China, and the current low inventory will continue to aggravate the shortage of supply and demand in the domestic copper market. It is very unwise for traders to short before the delivery of the June 5438+February contract.

On the issue of US dollar exchange rate, it should be said that this is the dominant factor affecting the recent international copper price. Judging from the historical trend of the US dollar index, it often takes a long time to bottom out. It is estimated that in the foreseeable years, the US dollar exchange rate will hover at the bottom, and its center of gravity may continue to move down, which is very in line with the background of the current global economic order reconstruction. The US dollar index really started to rise sharply unilaterally after the United States found its place in the new global economic order. In the next few months or even a year, it is obvious that the US dollar index needs to rebound sharply. The recent downward resistance has fully expressed this message, so the future will definitely be a big blow to international copper prices. Judging from the recent trend of large investment institutions in the market, shorting the US dollar is still the mainstream operation, and the monetary authorities in the United States and Europe basically recognize the current situation; At the same time, the technical chart also shows that there is still some room for the US dollar index to fall, which is in line with the fundamental judgment. Therefore, the short-term decline is the mainstream trend of the US dollar exchange rate, and then it will usher in an intermediate rebound that lasts for more than 4 months. For the international copper price, the US dollar exchange rate is obviously positive first and then negative. In terms of time, the newly re-elected Bush administration recently reiterated its policy of strengthening the dollar (only the specific trend of the dollar needs to be decided by the market), and economists of the European Central Bank think that the current drastic exchange rate changes are unpopular. Considering the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and the arrival of the New Year, it is estimated that the recent decline may last until around the Western New Year, that is, around 65438+ 10; The time period theory in technical analysis also shows that the next two months will be a key turning point.

Third, the current market investment psychology and market behavior analysis

The investment psychology of the market is what we need to focus on. In general, the public's investment psychology is always a reverse indicator with high accuracy. In the past six months, most investors in the market have always been bearish on copper prices, while copper prices have not fallen but risen; When more and more bullish voices were heard in the market, copper prices plummeted again. The same situation also appeared in the soybean market, especially in the soybean market from June last year 165438+ 10 to February this year, which is very similar to that in Shanghai copper market in recent months. Therefore, from this perspective, most investors in the current market want to short copper prices, which means that copper prices in the later period are likely to repeat the skyrocketing soybean market at the beginning of this year. When the market is extremely bullish, copper prices may peak.

In terms of capital, judging from the position structure of Shanghai copper market, the main bulls have no intention to stop here, which can be seen from COFCO's big position in 65438+February, the long position in 65438+ 10 contract, the overall rise of the far-month contract and the firm acceptance of the intraday low. Previously, the positions in the Shanghai copper market were mainly concentrated on a single contract, and now the front line is fully open. Therefore, the author believes that this is the beginning of the main bulls to prepare for the final round of pull-up. Because the price of Yuan Yue is relatively low, it will be the main contract pursued by most investors in the future, and it will also be conducive to the safe exit of the main bulls.

In the international refined copper market, according to the recent data of CFTC, this fund is more cautious after the previous losses, although it is still chasing up at a high level. It should be said that the fund is the main force chasing up and down in the international market. Therefore, if it is found that the net long position of the fund has increased significantly in the later period, we should be careful that the high platform diving trend of 65438+1mid-October may be interpreted again after the copper price peaks in the later period. Relatively speaking, the copper market in Luntong is still rational. Basically, its position level fluctuates between1.50,000 ~1.70,000 lots, and the position basically keeps pace with the price. As long as its positions are not greatly reduced in the later period, the current rising pattern of copper prices will continue to be maintained, otherwise it is necessary to be careful that copper prices may peak.

Fourth, the basic conclusion

To sum up, we can basically draw a conclusion that it is likely to be in the final sprint stage of the whole copper price bull market at present, and from the time point of view, the vicinity of 1 may be the most important turning point of the copper price market in recent years. From the perspective of opportunities, the bear market may come after 1 month, and what we are facing is indeed a historic short-selling opportunity; Before that, it will be the last round of the bull market. According to the historical characteristics of commodity futures (often the last round of rise is the craziest stage in the whole bull market), this round of mid-term rise is also worth participating in.