abstract

1. The production capacity has entered the chemical stage. According to statistics, the number of fertile sows in China has decreased for four consecutive months, and the total number is still at the high point in the past six years. As of June 365438+1October 3 1, China can breed 43.48 million sows.

2. The production efficiency has been greatly improved. In the whole de-capacity stage of pigs, inefficient ternary sows are mainly replaced, followed by aged binary sows, and efficient binary sows are exchanged. Coupled with parity, survival rate and other factors, we believe that the improvement of breeding efficiency brought about by the adjustment of population structure of fertile sows makes up for the decline in stock.

3. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of pork will rebound slightly in 2022. In the environment of relatively loose overall supply and demand in 2022, the high pig prices in 20021and1-April may be difficult to reappear in 2022, and the low price may further stimulate the demand for pork. Seasonal characteristics may become the main line of price fluctuations in 2022.

4. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the pig production capacity is still in the release cycle in the first and second quarters, and the pig price may bottom out again in the off-season when seasonal demand is superimposed; In the third and fourth quarters, due to the elimination of fertile sows and the recovery of demand, the mismatch between supply and demand may lead to the strength of pig prices again. But neither spot nor futures can reproduce the fluctuation range of 202 1.

Risk factors: COVID-19 epidemic, African swine fever epidemic.