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Analysis of characteristics of intraday trading
There are many factors that affect commodity futures prices, which together determine the intraday and daytime market prices of different varieties, forming a certain trend characteristics. For long-term traders, fundamental analysis is very important, while for short-term traders in the day, it is particularly important to analyze the trend characteristics of the disk at different time points, grasp the psychological state and judge the technical indicators. The intraday trading is divided into different time periods, and some characteristics are summarized through the analysis of price trends in different time periods, which will have good reference value for traders.

Time-sharing diagram by time

First, the opening price is confirmed at 9:00.

The opening price of futures is determined during the call auction period between 8: 55 and 9: 00. As the starting point of one-day market trend, it is generated by call auction method after consideration by both long and short parties. There are many factors that affect the opening price, and the opening price of different varieties will reflect this difference.

Based on comprehensive judgment, domestic futures products can be divided into two categories according to the degree of influence on price trends. One is international, such as gold, copper, aluminum, zinc, fuel oil, soybeans, natural rubber and so on. The opening price of this variety is greatly affected by the overnight external market, and the daytime trend is particularly prone to gaps; The other category is varieties mainly based on domestic factors, such as sugar, wheat, corn and other varieties. The opening price is mainly affected by domestic news, so most of them delayed the price trend at the end of yesterday, resulting in the opening price of the day.

The forecast of the opening price of the next day will not only focus on the situation of the overnight external market, but also be affected by unexpected events, such as the previous H 1N 1 event, the daily limit of the US soybean market is rare, and the domestic market is affected by this. In addition, for some international commodities, there is a stable proportional relationship between the external price and the domestic variety price. Investors can predict the approximate range of the opening price of the inner disk according to the closing situation of the outer disk.

Second, the important observation stage of price trend within 9: 00-9: 30.

The period from 9: 00 to 9: 30 is to complete the revision of the opening price. Because the opening price is determined according to the principle of maximum transaction, and the first transaction price after call auction is the opening price, in the call auction stage, not all orders can be closed, so there is a problem: this opening price is not recognized by all traders. Therefore, after the opening, all kinds of funds will enter the market to participate in trading and operate positions through different judgments on various news, thus forming the first wave of long and short fights in the day, and further revising the opening price in the fight.

During the correction period from 9: 00 to 9: 30, the five minutes after the opening mainly absorbed the influence of overnight external markets and news, and the futures price overreacted. In the later period, the excessive futures price was mainly corrected, which mostly appeared in the trend of sharp decline or sharp rise at the opening. The revised opening price has an important reference function for the trend of the day, and usually half an hour after the opening is regarded as the most important observation period of the day.

Third, 9: 30- 14: 30 multi-air combat stage

1. Warehouse quantity is an important technical analysis basis for judging the trend.

This period of time is the main time for traders to enter the market after observing and understanding the previous trend, and it is also the longest trading time in a day. During this period, the attention of funds and the choice of long and short directions play a key role in the price change. Volume and position are the external manifestations of capital's preference for the direction of price trend. By studying the volume and position, we can judge the direction and persistence of price fluctuation and provide technical support for intraday trading.

2. The market movement is repeated according to a certain pattern, so is the intraday market.

From 9: 00 to 9: 30, the price fluctuation pattern created by both long and short parties is a microcosm of the intraday trend to a certain extent, which basically indicates the price trend of the intraday market. There are two main reasons: first, half an hour after the opening accounts for 1/8 of the whole day, while according to statistics, the turnover accounts for about 1/5 of the whole day. The trend of the formation of a large amount of funds has a direct psychological impact and reference on the future price trend in the day. 2. Generally speaking, if there is a trend of flat opening or high opening in half an hour in the morning, it is necessary to observe the opening of the third line (continuous 10 minute K line) or the opening of the second line (continuous 15 minute K line). If the line continues to close, today's trend is mainly biased, and vice versa. If there is a low opening trend, we can observe the gap between yesterday's closing price and today's opening price. If the futures price continues to rise more than three gaps after the opening, it shows that the market is strong, on the contrary, the market is weak, which is not conducive to investors to see more in the day.

3. Analysis of meeting points

During 9: 30- 14: 30, there are two closed periods, of which the morning period is10:15-10: 30. After the early callback and long-short fight, the intraday trend gradually stabilized. This 15-minute closing stage can make investors rethink the afternoon trading, so 10:30 becomes an important observation point or operation point of the market's intraday trend.

4. Analysis of opening price in the afternoon

Affected by the two-hour lunch break in China, the opening price at 13:30 in the afternoon is mainly affected by the following factors: ① the trend of the external market at noon; (2) the response to the new information in the midday market; (3) Strengthening the trend in the early days of the day. These three factors (including but not limited to) jointly determine the opening price in the afternoon and the trend after midday. However, in the absence of significant positive and negative effects, the trend after midday is mainly to strengthen the previous trend of the day.

Four. 14: 30 to 15: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00: 00:

After the first three stages of long and short battles, the long and short strength in one day has been determined, which generally reflects the characteristics that the strong are stronger and the weak are weaker. However, before the closing 15 minutes, the price will generally show the opposite market, especially before the closing 10 minutes. There are two main reasons for this: first, day speculators choose to close their positions; Second, a large amount of funds can predict the future price trend by understanding and digesting the future market information, so as to choose the long and short direction to enter the market. The interaction of the above two factors caused the opposite fluctuation in the late session.

5. Day trading operation

Summarizing the characteristics of intraday trend, we can get the following suggestions for traders' reference:

First, today's opening price is the result of a comprehensive reaction to the external market trend and various news after yesterday's close, but it is necessary to revise the opening price at 9 o'clock.

Second, the main feature of the 9: 00-9: 30 period is to correct the opening price, which determines the overall long-short trend in the day to a certain extent, with a large amount of funds and fierce price fluctuations. In view of the above three characteristics, it is suggested that ordinary traders carefully observe this trading period and distinguish the overall trend of long and short days. If the situation is unknown, don't participate for the time being, but the short-term hat snatchers in the day can go back and forth at this stage where there is a big difference between the long and short sides, and make full use of large fluctuations and disk flexibility to make money.

Third, half an hour after the opening, the long and short sides are basically competing. By 9: 30- 14: 30, the price operation is relatively stable, the intraday trend is strong, the trading risk is small, and the income is relatively stable, which is suitable for ordinary traders to intervene. However, it is also necessary to analyze and observe the changes in technical indicators and positions during this period, so as to carefully grasp the market price and the timing of opening positions.

Fourthly, the trend from 9: 00 to 9: 30 is the same as that from 9:30- 14:30, in which 10:30 is an important observation point or operation node for whether the intraday trend is reversed.

Fifth, half an hour before the closing, due to the inflow of funds, intraday speculators closed their positions and prices fluctuated greatly. Ordinary investors are advised not to conduct intraday short-term trading during this period.

The above-mentioned intra-day point analysis is based on statistics and experience, but it does not win the world all the way. In practice, traders should also combine fundamental information, intraday fluctuation points and other factors to confirm, so as to grasp the timing of entry and exit.