International raw materials are denominated in dollars. At present, the QE scale in the United States leads to a decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar, and the prices of commodities with corresponding pricing will rise. Of course, the price increase is also related to the exchange rate of importing countries and the exchange rate of exporting countries. At the same time, based on the expectation of economic recovery, we are optimistic about the realization of demand side in the future, so as to realize the "Davis double click" of dollar depreciation and demand improvement on industrial products, and the prices of industrial products continue to rise.
The price of agricultural futures is more affected by the supply side, including output, inventory, planting area and so on. Although the demand side will improve under the expectation of economic rebound, especially some agricultural products with certain industrial attributes, the overall demand side is not as explosive as industrial products. In addition, agricultural products are often prone to short-term speculation due to weather, pests and diseases, such as reducing production. If the subsequent production reduction is falsified, it will return to the original trend after the hype is completed. ?
Therefore, on the whole, there are similarities in the logic of rising futures prices of industrial products and agricultural products, but more differences. The skyrocketing price of industrial products is just like the "Davis double-click" mentioned above, while the skyrocketing price of agricultural products is mainly a supply-side production reduction factor, and the demand side has little impact. After all, the demand for agricultural products in the whole world is basically stable or moderate, and there is no short-term explosive force on the demand side, but the price increase caused by supply-side factors is more explosive.
But at the same time, we can also look at it the other way around. When the economy is down or depressed, the prices of agricultural products are often more stable than those of industrial products, for the same reason.
At present, 202 1 is in the context of global quantitative easing and economic recovery. Countries are also trying to get rid of the deflation crisis and gradually turn it into a moderate inflation stage. PPI and CPI rose moderately. In the current economic cycle stage, the prices of raw materials, industrial products and other commodities will continue to rise, while the income of agricultural products is far less than that of industrial products because the demanders have no expected demand for industrial products.