A country's monetary policy orientation is very important to its economic development. If a country's economy is compared to a train, then monetary policy controls the speed of the train like a brake. The purpose of implementing monetary policy is to maintain steady and rapid economic development. If the economic development is slow, it is necessary to relax the "brake" appropriately, and if the economy develops too fast, it is necessary to step on the "brake". In the case of rapid economic development, if you don't step on the "brake" of monetary policy, then the final result will be "rollover". The more developed the economy, the more perfect the market economic system, and the greater, more effective and more important the role of monetary policy. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was called a "golden mouth" when he was in office. His words imply that the world economy, especially the capital market, will "move". Mainly because he is in charge of the monetary policy of the United States, the world's largest economy.
After China's ten-year prudent monetary policy is replaced by a tight monetary policy next year, what impact will it bring to all aspects of China's economy? It has the most direct impact on investment in fixed assets. In the first three quarters of 2007, China's fixed assets investment increased by 25.7%, and it will not drop too much throughout the year; In the first 10 month, new loans were 1. 1 times that of last year. At the end of 10, the year-on-year growth rate of broad money supply was 1.53 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year. Foreign exchange reserves remain high, and the problem of excess liquidity has not been alleviated. If this investment rate is maintained next year, the economic development will inevitably overheat. To adopt a tight monetary policy, it is necessary to control the money supply, which will be greatly reduced next year, and the growth of fixed assets investment and credit will drop significantly.
It has the greatest impact on the price trend. Since the beginning of this year, China's consumer price has increased from 3.3% in March to 6.5% in June, 65438+10. Many institutions and experts predict that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) in China may increase by more than 6.5% in June from 5438+065438+ 10, which is a new high in the past decade, and the annual CPI increase may exceed 4.4%. Inflationary pressure has increased significantly. If this trend is not contained, there is a great possibility of obvious inflation next year. Therefore, from the tight monetary policy, it is an inevitable choice for the central bank to continue to raise interest rates and raise the deposit reserve ratio. The price level should be stable.
The indirect impact on the real estate market and the capital market will not be small. This year, real estate investment remains high, and house prices are rising all the way; The capital market is extremely hot. As a result, people can't afford to buy houses, and the problem of increasing financial risks is quite prominent. If these problems are not well solved and controlled, it will lay a huge hidden danger for the whole economic development. Tight monetary policy will directly lead to the reduction of currency in circulation, which will certainly affect the arrival of real estate investment and housing demand, and the momentum of soaring housing prices will be curbed. The decrease in the amount of money in circulation will reduce the amount of funds flowing into the capital market and slow down the overheating of the capital market.
The implementation of tight monetary policy must take into account the requirements of expanding employment. If it is not well controlled, tight monetary policy will reduce employment opportunities and jobs. This is a problem that must be handled carefully when implementing a tight monetary policy next year.
Tight monetary policy will have a great impact on commercial banks. If there is no accident, it is an inevitable choice for the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio again, which has a great impact on the internal liquidity of commercial banks. After raising the reserve ratio nine times this year, some commercial banks, including the four major state-owned banks, have shown signs of internal liquidity shortage. Continuing to raise the reserve ratio will definitely make the liquidity of commercial banks more tense. Commercial banks must be fully prepared. In the case of internal liquidity shortage, the primary task of commercial banks is to ensure liquidity and payment, which will definitely have a serious impact on their operations.