If oil-exporting countries use a large amount of petrodollars for savings and invest in the global capital market, it can fund the current account deficit of oil-importing countries, which is actually equivalent to borrowing money to let oil-importing countries consume high-priced oil. However, this will increase the demand for foreign financial assets, raise asset prices, depress the bond yield of oil-importing countries, and help stimulate the economic vitality of oil-importing countries. Experience shows that a large amount of petrodollars may be good or bad for the economy of oil-producing countries. The problem is how to use and save the money. Some experts believe that making a windfall from oil will delay the economic reform of oil-producing countries. Now the oil exporting countries spend less than in the past, and keep a large amount of surplus to pay off debts and increase assets.
After the emergence of petrodollars, it has had a great impact on the world economy and international finance: first, it has provided abundant funds for oil-producing countries, promoted their economic development, changed their long-term single economic structure, and gradually established an independent and complete national economic system. Second, there has been a new imbalance in the balance of payments of different types of countries, and structural changes have taken place in the comparison of international reserve forces. For example, Russia, a big oil country, earned more petrodollars because of the rising oil price. It is estimated that Russia's oil export revenue in 2005 will be about 90 billion US dollars. By September 2005 18, Russia not only repaid the huge foreign debt owed to the Paris Club in advance, but also increased its gold and foreign exchange reserves to1497.54 billion US dollars. Third, it has intensified the turmoil in the international financial market. After petrodollars are put into the international market, on the one hand, it enriches the international credit power and meets the needs of many countries for long-term and short-term credit funds; On the other hand, it has caused a lot of hot money to flow between countries. Sometimes investing in stocks, sometimes investing in gold and currencies of various countries leads to greater fluctuations in the stock, gold and foreign exchange markets. If the United States wants to punish Iran, military strikes or economic sanctions seem imminent. However, Iran's attitude has not softened, but has become tougher. In addition to refusing to stop uranium enrichment activities, the Iranian government also announced that it will set up an oil exchange on March 20, 2008, and will use the euro as the monetary unit for oil pricing and trading.
Iran's decision to replace petrodollars with petroeuros naturally attracted widespread attention. Since the 1970s, the United States and Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, have reached an "unshakable" agreement, and both sides decided to use the US dollar as the sole pricing currency for oil, and obtained the consent of other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Since then, the dollar and oil have been closely linked, and the two have been drawn as an invisible equal sign. Any country that wants to trade oil must have enough dollar reserves. If "Petroeuro" really appears in the international oil market, it will undoubtedly pose a challenge to "Petrodollar".
On the other hand, "petroleum euro" is by no means an illusion. This is determined by the import and export structure of oil exporting countries. For example, during the period from1998 to 2002, 22.4% of the oil exports of OPEC countries were exported to the United States, and 2 1. 1% were exported to the European Union. Among them, the proportion of Algeria, Libya and Iran exported to the EU was 55, 97 and 36 percentage points higher than that exported to the United States, while Indonesia, Kuwait and Iran exported to the United States. Correspondingly, during the same period, 37.2% of the imports of OPEC countries came from the European Union, and only 13.6% came from the United States. In this case, oil-exporting countries have the economic impulse to adopt more flexible and diversified import and export denominated currencies to avoid currency mismatch. From the long-term trend, the monopoly position of US dollar in global oil pricing and settlement is not necessarily beneficial to countries outside the United States, which determines that oil exporting countries must have a basic strategy of adopting international currency pricing and settlement in line with their own interests. Therefore, except for the United States, all countries do not reject the idea of the oil euro. Similar to the gold standard, but different from the monetary era of the gold standard, gold, as the standard currency, has unlimited legal repayment ability, and bank notes can be freely converted into gold coins. Anyone can apply to the National Mint for casting all his gold into gold coins or dissolving gold coins into metal blocks. The import and export of gold can be freely transferred between countries. Their rights and obligations are equal, and they can't escape paying their debts. The only problem is that the value of gold itself fluctuates.
However, the asymmetry of petrodollars leads to the separation of rights and obligations. American manufacturing rights (USD), maintaining the credibility and deterrence of USD (USD by force), and oil-producing countries providing obligations (oil). As long as American forces can conquer the world, you can exchange dollars for anyone's oil resources.
By locking in oil, Americans have the right to write a dollar check for their debts, and have the obligation to maintain the dollar credit and dollar strength.
As long as the world crude oil is still traded in dollars, the oil-based dollar will not collapse.
Once the right to exchange dollars for oil is violated, the United States has the obligation to maintain the dollar power (deterrence). So although the wars in Kuwait and Iraq cost the United States a lot of manpower and material resources. But all activities that challenge oil standards must be severely cracked down, so the United States is not attacking them for no reason.
The failure of the dollar is because the US military strength is not enough to protect the oil standard, or the failure of the dollar is due to lack of credit. In actual international activities, it is almost impossible to fail by force, because as long as there is an oil standard, the United States has the global power to crack down on all activities that challenge the oil standard.
Therefore, it is difficult for the dollar to collapse quickly, and the biggest possibility is a long time. Dollar credit constantly challenges everyone's tolerance, but no one can use global power, but the gradual weakening is a foreseeable consequence, and no one will make the final repayment obligation for all dollars. After the dollar weakens completely, it is almost impossible for another fake credit check to dominate the world. The World Garden is just an idea that people generally expect. It remains to be seen how to practice next. Normal relationship
As the world's largest oil consumer and net importer, the rise in oil prices will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the US economy and lead to fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the US dollar. Historically, all previous oil crises have caused the recession of the American economy, which is the main reason for the fluctuation of the real exchange rate of the US dollar. However, the analysis of the real exchange rate trend of the US dollar will be different from that of the general oil importing countries. The main reason is that international oil transactions are all denominated and settled in US dollars, and the rise in oil prices means an increase in demand for US dollars, so the US dollar may remain a strong currency, which makes the analysis complicated.
Scholars' theoretical research and empirical analysis show that the fluctuation of oil price is the main factor leading to the change of the real exchange rate of the US dollar. To sum up, the sharp rise in oil prices mainly affects the nominal exchange rate of the US dollar through the following three ways, and then affects the fluctuation of the real exchange rate of the US dollar.
First of all, rising oil prices will increase the cost of means of production and living in an all-round way, leading to an increase in inflation rate, which in turn will increase the demand for nominal money and domestic credit, thus attracting more foreign investment into the United States. The inflow of foreign capital will lead to the rise of the exchange rate of the US dollar. At the same time, domestic monetary policy in the United States tends to strengthen the appreciation of the dollar. At the beginning of rising oil prices, the Federal Reserve often adopts tight monetary policies such as raising interest rates to control inflation, so that the increase in interest rates will attract more foreign capital inflows and lead to the rise of the nominal exchange rate of the US dollar.
Secondly, the rising oil price makes the oil exporting countries have a trade surplus, and the foreign exchange reserves mainly in US dollars increase, resulting in the so-called "petrodollars", which will enter the international financial market to buy a large number of US dollar assets for profit-seeking, thus leading to an increase in the nominal exchange rate of the US dollar.
Third, the continuous rise in oil prices will lead to the recession of the world economy, making the balance of payments of oil-importing countries uncertain. Therefore, these countries have increased the proportion of US dollar assets in their foreign exchange reserves to maintain the stability of the exchange rate, which further increases the demand for US dollars and leads to the rise of the nominal exchange rate of US dollars. Under the comprehensive effect of the above three influencing mechanisms, the nominal exchange rate of the US dollar rises when the oil price rises. When the nominal exchange rate rises, the change of the real exchange rate level depends on the ratio of the domestic price level in the United States to the foreign price level. Because the oil consumption in the United States is greater than that in other countries, the impact of rising oil prices on the overall price level in the United States is greater than that in other countries. In this way, the rise of the relative price level is consistent with the change direction of the nominal effective exchange rate, so when the oil price rises, the real exchange rate level of the US dollar will also rise.
When the international crude oil price rises due to demand or political factors, the American economy, which is highly dependent on imported crude oil, will decline. In order to protect domestic interests, the dollar, as the world currency, can be devalued to promote exports and stimulate domestic economic growth. However, in order to avoid the loss caused by the depreciation of the US dollar, professional investors will choose to buy commodities in the futures market, such as crude oil, gold or agricultural products, to offset the value loss caused by currency depreciation. This kind of speculation will further push up commodity futures prices. Excessive futures crude oil prices will aggravate producers' worries, further suppress the American economy, lead to lower investors' expectations, and worsen the economic environment, which is manifested in the decline of the stock market. The decline of the stock market will further aggravate the vicious circle, capital will flee, push up futures and eventually lead to inflation. In order to avoid this vicious circle, the central bank often has to take action to control the money supply to avoid excessive fluctuations in the currency exchange rate.
Abnormal relationship-the weakening dollar pushes up oil prices in the opposite direction
The American economy has declined, oil consumption has decreased, demand has decreased, and oil prices have fallen. On the other hand, however, the US economy has declined, the dollar has depreciated, and oil is denominated in dollars. So the dollar fell and the oil price went up.
Analysts believe that the rise in oil prices is mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar, rather than changes in supply and demand. As of 10 and 13/9: 00 Beijing time, the main crude oil futures contract of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for the month 1 1 reported USD 82.62/barrel, up 0.95, or 0.66%. London Brent (IPE) crude oil futures165438+1October contract reported $84.30/barrel, up $0.78/barrel.
The continued depreciation of the dollar is behind the scenes. Analysts believe that thanks to the weakening of the US dollar, the attractiveness of commodities as alternative investment products has gradually increased, and the negative correlation between international oil prices and the US dollar has become more and more obvious.
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As the world currency, the appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar are subject to the market economy to a certain extent, that is, determined by the relationship between supply and demand of money. As a non-renewable energy source, crude oil is the driving force and foundation of world economic development, and there is no other effective energy source to replace it. So, does the dollar have anything to do with oil? If so, what factors are dominant in the subconscious?
The Origin of the Relationship between Dollar and Crude Oil
After the outbreak of World War II, the world economic system centered on Europe was on the verge of collapse, and France, Germany and Britain were hit hard in the war. The comparable United States is not only unscathed, but also benefited a lot from this war. In Brayton? At the meeting of the Woods system, he controlled the price of gold, a traditional precious metal against inflation, at $35 an ounce in a dictatorial way, thus mastering the world trade system. However, since the 1970s, due to the spread of the economic crisis, the dollar began to depreciate sharply, but the United States was unable to honor the promise made at the previous meeting-the business of exchanging gold when there was a trade deficit. However, governments and major banks still position the settlement currency of gold as US dollar, which makes the exchange rate of US dollar negatively correlated with the trend of gold price. Once the dollar, as a foreign exchange reserve of various countries, depreciates, it will make governments throw dollars in exchange for gold with value preservation, thus making the price of gold rise.
In this case, the fixed exchange rate between the dollar and gold can no longer be implemented. From 65438 to 0975, the "self-centered" United States found a relationship that was in line with its own interests-linked to crude oil, so it conducted many consultations with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (including oil exporting countries such as Iraq, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela) and finally reached an agreement to trade crude oil only in US dollars. In other words, the US dollar has become the currency of international crude oil pricing and settlement, and the rise in crude oil prices will increase the market demand for the US dollar, thus causing the nominal exchange rate of the United States to rise. At the same time, the United States is also a big consumer of crude oil in the world, so the real exchange rate of the US dollar will also rise. This has led to the following situations in the market: buying dollars → buying crude oil → increasing demand for crude oil payment → rising exchange rate. This should be good for the dollar, but the extremes meet. In fact, the rise of crude oil price has brought pressure to the rise of the US dollar exchange rate, that is, the rise of crude oil price → the increase of operating costs of all walks of life → the increase of other commodity prices → the increase of consumption cost residents → the minimization of consumer demand → the decline of consumer confidence index → the slowdown or even recession of the US economy → the decline of exchange rate → the depreciation of the US dollar.
Although the depreciation of the dollar can promote American exports and stimulate market investment activities to a certain extent, it reduces the willingness of dollar-denominated crude oil producers to increase production and curb oil prices, resulting in high oil prices. That is to say, the depreciation of the dollar → the decline of dollar-denominated crude oil prices → the reduction of crude oil production in crude oil producing countries (the market demand has not decreased) → the shortage of crude oil → the rise of oil prices → the stimulation of market speculation → the push up of oil prices → the strengthening of the dollar exchange rate. To this end, the relationship between the dollar and crude oil inadvertently began a negative correlation journey like a seesaw.
Today's dollars and crude oil
Comparing the above charts of EUR/USD and crude oil prices, we can find that: at the beginning of February 2008, crude oil prices and EUR/USD exchange rates both fell; Since then, crude oil has begun to form bulls to go all out, and the euro/dollar is not far behind. The moving average system is long, and the exchange rate has continued to rise for more than a month. Until near April, the crude oil was sorted out for a period of time. Coincidentally, the euro/dollar exchange rate also entered a rest period; However, just as crude oil was poised to soar, the exchange rate of Euro/US dollar began to gain momentum and hit a new high. Wave after wave, wave after wave, the price of crude oil and the exchange rate of euro/dollar are always in a state of "following".
In mid-July, driven by the surge in crude oil prices, the exchange rate of the US dollar fell sharply, and the huge losses of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae dealt a heavy blow to the American economy, and the US dollar was once again sold off sharply. Just as the market is speculating whether the US economy can "survive", the fluctuation of crude oil prices has brought the exchange rate of the US dollar back to its original range, and launched a life-and-death duel with the Euro. Until the author's deadline, the battle has not been won. It seems that the dollar may have a chance to rebound before the oil price "Mustang" gets out of control. Looking at the current dollar and crude oil, the relationship between them has been relatively fixed, but we can't ignore that crude oil, as a non-renewable resource, will one day be exhausted, and will the dollar that blends with it stay at the bottom or peak of the seesaw with the disappearance of its rivals? Similarly, if the dollar continues to depreciate, so that crude oil producers are no longer bound by the agreement with the United States, and adopt currencies such as the euro to price crude oil, the status of the dollar as the world currency will probably be replaced by other currencies. To this end, if the dollar wants to continue to be admired by thousands of people, it must take effective measures, on the one hand, to revive the depressed American economy and show its glory again; On the other hand, the United States must understand the truth of "foresight" and find new resources to replace crude oil when it is not really exhausted, just like 1975 crude oil replaces gold.