First, learn three common positions management.
1. Funnel position management method.
The initial entry funds are relatively small and the positions are relatively light. If the market runs in the opposite direction, the market prospect will gradually add positions, and then the cost will be diluted, and the proportion of adding positions will become larger and larger. In this way, the following position control is very small. The top is very big, much like a funnel, so it can be called funnel position management method. Suitable for mid-late and long-term investors. Common positions are 2:3:5 or 1:2:3:4.
Advantages: the initial risk is relatively small, and the higher the funnel, the more considerable the profit.
Disadvantages: This method is based on the premise of consistent market prospects, trends and judgments. If the direction judgment is wrong, or the direction trend cannot exceed the set standard, it will fall into an unprofitable situation. Under normal circumstances, at this time, the position is heavier, the available funds are less, and the capital turnover is difficult. In this position management mode, the greater the reverse fluctuation, the greater the position and the higher the risk. When the reverse fluctuation reaches a certain level, it will inevitably lead to Man Cang's holding and huge losses.
2. Rectangular position management method.
Its initial market capital accounts for a fixed proportion of the total capital. If the market develops in the opposite direction, it will gradually increase positions and reduce costs in the future. The increase in position will follow this fixed ratio and form a rectangle. Common locations are 1/3, 1/4, 1/5.
Advantages: only a certain proportion of positions are added at a time, and the cost of positions is gradually increased, with average risk sharing and average management. When the position is controllable and the direction and judgment of the market outlook are consistent, you will get rich benefits.
Disadvantages: the initial average cost rises quickly, and it is easy to fall into a passive situation quickly. The price can't cross the break-even point and is in a quilt state. Like the funnel method, the more reversed the change, the larger the position. To a certain extent, it is bound to be held in full position. As long as the price changes in the opposite direction, it will lead to losses.
3. Pyramid position management method.
The initial amount of funds entering the market is relatively large. If the market runs in the opposite direction in the afternoon, no more positions will be added. If the direction is the same, it will gradually add positions, and the proportion of adding positions will become smaller and smaller. Position control is a form of big bottom and small top, like a pyramid, so it is called pyramid position management method. Common locations are 5:3:2 or 4:3:2: 1.
Advantages: Position control is carried out according to the rate of return. The higher the winning rate, the higher the position used. Use the persistence of the trend to add positions. In the trend, you will get high returns and low risk rate.
Disadvantages: it is difficult to make a profit in a volatile market. The initial position is heavier, and the initial admission requirements are higher, so it is necessary to grasp the general trend more accurately.
Analyze the differences and connections between the three methods:
1. Both the funnel-shaped position management method and the rectangular position management method operate in the opposite direction after the first admission, but they are still convinced that the later trend will operate according to their own judgment and carry out position management.
2. The pyramid-shaped position management method is that after entering the market, if the market runs in the opposite direction, it will not add positions, and if it reaches a stop loss, it will stop. The funnel-shaped and rectangular position management methods belong to the counter-market operation method, while the pyramid position management method is the homeopathic operation method.
3. Funnel position management method and rectangular position management method, the correct premise is that the market outlook conforms to the predicted trend, and the positions are getting heavier and heavier, and they can make profits without exploding positions, which is more risky for investors.
4. The pyramid position management method is at most a certain loss ratio of the first admission funds, rather than the risk of all funds. The pyramid position management method is less risky.
5. The market is changing rapidly, so it is necessary to choose a consistent position management strategy according to different market characteristics (bull market, bear market and volatile market), and the same strategy cannot be applied invariably at any time.
Second, the actual foreign exchange position management.
1. actual combat communication. Students said that building positions according to the pyramid should be held for a long time, regardless of short-term fluctuations. Starting from tomorrow, we will build positions in strict accordance with the pyramid method. The pyramid method is to trade on the left. If it is not completed, we will wait for the trade on the right. Pyramid positions have dropped by 30%, so it is estimated that it is difficult to complete positions. Specific methods: start to open positions by 65,438+00%, reduce positions by 65,438+00% and add positions by 20%, reduce positions by 65,438+00% and add positions by 30%, and reduce positions by 65,438+00% and add positions by 40%. It is estimated that positions cannot be opened. If the position can be opened in this way, it will return to its original value as long as it rises by 10%. Of course, it does not rule out falling.
The opening ratio of students is 1: 2: 3: 4. With the non-directional trend of the market, more and more investments will lead to greater risks. This method should be called funnel position management method, not pyramid position management method. The ratio of pyramid position management method should be: 4: 3: 2: 1 or 5: 3: 2.
2. Advantages and disadvantages analysis. Advantages of funnel-shaped position management method: the initial risk is relatively small, and the higher the funnel, the more considerable the income. Disadvantages: In this position management mode, the greater the reverse fluctuation, the greater the position and the higher the risk. When the reverse fluctuation reaches a certain level, it will inevitably lead to Man Cang's holding and huge losses.
Advantages of pyramid position management method: in the trend, high income and low risk rate will be obtained. Disadvantages: it is difficult to make a profit in a volatile market. The initial position is heavier, and the initial admission requirements are higher, so it is necessary to grasp the general trend more accurately.
Third, my feelings.
My investment philosophy is divided into three aspects: first, ETF funds, like deposits in banks, are fixed every month, accounting for10% of positions; Second, convertible bonds, moving bricks, can be moved with dividends, accounting for 40%; Third, individual stocks, finding a good company, as a profit space, account for 50%. I still don't know much about the layout of these three aspects, and I dare not build them indiscriminately.
Entering this year's 1-4, we lost all the profits of last year's 1W and also lost 10% of the capital.
The market is unstable. In April, northbound funds continued to flow out. The market caught a cold, and a lot of money went to speculate on convertible bonds. There are a large number of monster bonds and stocks in the market, which means that monsters with low market value and poor fundamentals can be calmly speculated by hot money. In the case of a large market value, hot money cannot be speculated. In other words, hot money is afraid of big market value and market collapse, black swan and grey rhinoceros.
At present, I dare not put them all in storage. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is still fluctuating, moving to a low level, and the high market is weak, with a loss of-10% and a need for +20% blood transfusion. I feel that there are still positions in my hand, and the more positions left in my hand, the better.
The classmate asked, if you value a stock, will you buy it all? My answer is, no, I will do what I can, think about it and take as many positions as possible.
My feeling is that we should still lurk and not be harvested by the market.
I can't do t, short-term and long-term ideas should be the same. Short-term time is less, long-term time is longer, but you don't change with the market. The greater the amount of money invested, the greater the change in income and mentality.
Now, we just withdraw the funds when we are profitable and wait for the establishment of new positions. According to their own cognitive level, to understand the significance of opening positions, rather than according to the normal thinking, to open positions. For the stock bonds whose fundamentals have not deteriorated, we should keep them first, pay attention to the changes of their policies, and carry out surgical lightening treatment for the stock bonds with poor fundamentals and too much deterioration. For those whose fundamentals improve, a small amount will be put into the warehouse. I'd better operate less positions in the market. This is my understanding.
Pay attention to risk control when opening positions. But control is in the field of consciousness, not depending on your will. Stock selection, timing and risk control operation are active investment means; If you don't do these operations and copy the index directly, it is passive investment. This is upside down or risk control. Pyramid is better, funnel is better, rectangle is better. In terms of opening positions, you can choose. The key is whether you know that the market has reached the bottom, and no one can predict. If you start to open a position 10% and then open a position after the decline, you need to know how much it will fall and how much it will fall before you can return to blood. Falling and rising are not traded according to the quantity of 1: 1, but should fall and rise according to the unequal difference, with more falling and less rising. My feeling is that I can't stick to the unchangeable method of opening positions, nor can I say that I can "estimate that I will fall below my position."
Falling and throwing, chasing and falling, buying and selling are all normal operations. If we take these as our beliefs, when we meet black swans and gray rhinos, people will suddenly roll in the abyss, and then we will be unable to fight back.