From different aspects, monetary policy and fiscal policy have different ways of coordination. The purpose is to coordinate the use of two policy tools to form a joint force and jointly solve the contradictions and problems existing in macroeconomic operation.
First, the way and content of coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy.
If we analyze the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy in the form of coordination, it mainly includes the following four aspects [1]:
First, the coordination of policy tools. The cooperation between monetary policy tools and fiscal policy tools in China is mainly manifested in the matching loans of banks in financial investment projects. The coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy also requires the combination of national debt issuance and the reverse operation of the central bank's open market. That is to say, when the government issues a large number of government bonds, the central bank should also buy government bonds in the open market to maintain the price of government bonds and prevent interest rates from rising.
Second, the coordination of policy prescriptions. In western economic theory, policy delays are usually divided into two categories and three types, namely, cognitive delays, action delays and external delays, of which the first two are also called internal delays. The coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy is also the coordination of the limitations of two different policies. Monetary policy, on the other hand, mainly focuses on fine-tuning, which lags behind obviously in starting economic growth, but it has long-term effects in curbing economic overheating and controlling inflation. The characteristic of fiscal policy is that the policy operation is strong, which can quickly start investment and stimulate economic growth, but it is easy to cause transitional deficit, economic overheating and inflation. Therefore, fiscal policy plays the role of an engine of economic growth, which can only be adjusted in the short term and cannot be used in large quantities in the long term.
Third, the coordination of policy functions. The coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy is also reflected in: "moderate or active monetary policy", which should reduce the policy loan risk brought by expansionary fiscal policy to commercial banks on the premise of not violating the operating principles of commercial banks. The investment scope of fiscal policy should not completely coincide with that of monetary policy. Basic and public welfare investment projects should still focus on fiscal policy investment, and competitive investment projects can only be the investment scope of monetary policy, otherwise it will form blind investment and cause great waste of social resources.
Fourth, the coordination of regulatory subjects, levels and methods. Due to the different subjects of monetary policy and fiscal policy, the two policies are also different in the level of regulation. Due to the high concentration of monetary policy power, monetary policy often includes only two levels, namely, macro level and meso level. [2,3] At the macro level, monetary policy directly regulates macroeconomic variables such as total social supply and demand, employment and national income through the influence of factors such as money supply and interest rate. The meso level refers to the credit policy, which adjusts the stock and incremental structure of credit funds according to the development needs of the national industrial policy to promote the optimization of industrial structure and the coordinated development of the national economy. Because the government has multi-level and relatively independent economic interests, fiscal policy has formed a multi-level adjustment system, which can be divided into macro, meso and micro levels. At the macro level, the state affects the macroeconomic aggregate and the total social supply and demand through the budget and tax rate. At the meso level, we mainly adjust the industrial structure and regional economic structure through financial investment expenditure and transfer expenditure, and solve major problems such as fair and coordinated development. Micro-level refers to the impact of personal income formed in financial subsidies and transfer payments on residents and enterprises. The coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy can also be analyzed from three aspects: macro-control objectives, structural adjustment and demand adjustment.
Second, the empirical analysis of the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy.
In the process of macroeconomic regulation and control, if the government wants to make the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy achieve the expected effect, it must first choose a certain coordination model of fiscal policy and monetary policy according to the macroeconomic regulation and control objectives, the national economy operation and the characteristics of the economic management system. Whether the policy coordination is appropriate or not will directly affect the macro-control effect.
(A) the basic trajectory of coordinated operation of monetary policy and fiscal policy since the reform and opening up.
Since the reform and opening up, China's economic construction and economic system reform have made remarkable achievements. From 1979 to 200 1, the GDP grew at an average annual rate of 17.5%, and the people's living standards and the country's comprehensive strength were greatly improved. With the deepening of economic system reform, the marketization of the national economy has been significantly improved, the role of market mechanism in the allocation of social resources has been continuously enhanced, and the government's macroeconomic management has gradually changed from direct regulation to indirect regulation, and fiscal policy and monetary policy have gradually become the main means for the government to regulate the economy. Over the past 20 years of reform and opening up, the combination of China's monetary policy and fiscal policy has gone through three stages.
According to preliminary statistics, during the 23 years of reform and opening-up, the "double loose" policy combination has been implemented for 13 years, the "double tight" policy combination has been implemented for 9 years, and the "tight" policy combination has only been implemented for 1 year, which can be divided into the following three stages:
The first stage is the initial stage of reform (1979 ~ 1984). At this stage, generally speaking, the implementation is a "double loose" policy combination, that is, a "loose" monetary policy and a "loose" fiscal policy combination. In the "double pine" policy model, the banking system reduces the deposit reserve ratio, lowers interest rates, expands the loan scale and increases the money supply. The financial system expands the total social demand by reducing taxes and increasing fiscal expenditure [4, 5]; Therefore, the total social demand can expand rapidly in a short time, which has a strong stimulating effect on economic development. In the early stage of reform, especially before 1984, under the condition that the total social demand is seriously insufficient and the production capacity and production resources are not fully utilized, this kind of policy cooperation can promote the operation of idle resources, stimulate economic growth and expand employment. However, after 1984, due to the lack of enough idle resources in the economy, the "double pine" policy injected a large amount of money, which would block the circulation channels, lead to inflation and adversely affect the economy.
The second stage (1985 ~ 1997). After 1985, on the one hand, the establishment of the central bank system established that monetary policy as a macroeconomic policy tool began to have a specific connotation and due role, and the core position of banks in modern economy began to be established. On the other hand, the symptoms of over-investment and economic overheating are becoming more and more obvious. At this stage, the implementation is a "double tight" policy mix, that is, a "tight" monetary policy and a "tight" fiscal policy mix. Under the "double tight" policy mode, the banking system reduces the money supply by recovering loans and compressing new loans, thus making the total social demand shrink rapidly in a short time; The financial system reduces the total social demand by increasing taxes, cutting fiscal expenditure, increasing fiscal deposits of the central bank and reducing market currency circulation.
The third stage (1998 ~ 2002). During this period, new phenomena appeared in China's economic operation, bidding farewell to the shortage economy that has long plagued China's economic development and people's lives. There was a relative surplus of material products and obvious deflation, which changed from the seller's market to the buyer's market and from controlling inflation in the past to controlling deflation. In terms of policy orientation, it has changed from "double tightness" to "double looseness", that is, it has implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, focusing on preventing financial risks. Fiscal policy has played a positive role in supporting development and resolving risks.
(B) the basic evaluation of the comprehensive role of monetary policy and fiscal policy during the transition period.
"Transformation" is the theme and main line of China's economic and financial reform and development in recent years. No policy measures can leave this main line, and only under the premise that services are subordinate to this main line can they realize their own development and perfection, and the role of monetary policy and fiscal policy can not be separated from the play of this basic premise.
First of all, the establishment of public finance theory and policy framework marks the complete return of policy standard, which is a remarkable feature of the combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy in the transitional period. From the big finance and small banks in the early stage of reform to the big banks and small banks in the middle and late 1980s and early 1990s, and then to the establishment of the main position of fiscal policy in the process of controlling deflation in the late 1990s, fiscal policy itself experienced a process of "strong-weak-strong" in behavior, and also experienced the transformation and transition from fiscal finance to catering finance and from construction finance to public finance in function. The initial establishment and gradual implementation of public finance theory and policy framework indicates that China's financial system and construction have begun to fully integrate with international practices, which is the complete return of fiscal policy standard and one of the most important contents of market economy construction.
Second, there are various ways of policy collocation, but it must be closely linked with the economic operation mechanism and the focus of macro-control at that time, and the best policy effect can be achieved by making choices and promoting them in coordination. In the past two decades, although we have made great achievements in macro-control construction, careful summary and investigation show that the policy performance of macro-control is far from the expected policy objectives. Up to now, the macro-control theory and policy norms adapted to the socialist market economic system have not yet been formed, and "camera choice" has become "arbitrary choice". In the middle and late 1980s, the policy objectives of macro-control were unclear, and they were basically in the strange circle of "one loosening means chaos, one tightening means death, one tightening means loosening, and one tightening means alternation", which slowed down the pace of economic development and economic system transition. Even in the late 1990s, the policy of "implementing double austerity" was written into many important documents as China's long-term macroeconomic choice, which also proved to some extent that China's decision-making departments and theoretical circles had a superficial understanding of macroeconomic regulation and control, and their ability and level of independent application were poor. The lack of authoritative departments in policy collocation often leads to the cancellation of policy effects. 1998 the expansion effect of fiscal policy is offset by the system contraction effect of taxation, and the positive monetary policy effect is offset by the system contraction effect of rectifying financial order and controlling the three chaos. There is still a long way to go to form a socialist macro-control theory and policy framework with China characteristics.
Third, the expansion effect of fiscal policy is decreasing, and its main position in macro-control has declined. As we all know, the main contents of fiscal policy are income policy and expenditure policy, and the goal of fiscal policy is achieved through its revenue and expenditure scale and structure. Therefore, the government's ability to change the scale and structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure is the premise and important guarantee for effectively realizing fiscal macro-control. In recent years, we have intensified the reform of the financial system, implemented a proactive fiscal policy, and achieved remarkable policy results. However, the expansionary fiscal policy has lasted for nearly five years, and the momentum of deflation has begun to be contained, and the economic operation background of implementing the expansionary fiscal policy has changed obviously. According to the general axiom of economics, if we want to continue to implement the expansionary fiscal policy, we must further increase the expansion of fiscal policy, and the stimulus effect should show a downward trend. How to maintain the expansion effect of fiscal policy is an urgent problem to be solved in the construction of macro-control system, policy collocation and selection.
Fourth, credit concentration and "reluctance to lend" coexist, and the expansion of monetary policy lacks the necessary transmission mechanism, which weakens the policy effect of prudent monetary policy. At present, on the one hand, there are a lot of idle supply-oriented funds in financial institutions and huge demand for funds urgently needed by economic development, and effective financial resources cannot be rationally utilized. By the end of 2002, it is estimated that the deposits of financial institutions in China will exceed 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 4 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of deflation1the end of 997, of which nearly 2 trillion yuan has been added in recent years. The utilization rate of bank funds is reduced, resulting in a lot of waste of funds, decreased efficiency and inefficient financial operation. On the other hand, the main industries of the national economy are in urgent need of funds for technological transformation and product upgrading, and the financial disposable funds are unable to shoulder this heavy responsibility, and "hematopoietic" and "blood transfusion" are seriously out of touch. How to optimize the allocation of sufficient financial resources to various industrial sectors and provide a steady stream of "power" for economic growth is a realistic problem that monetary policy needs to solve. Enlightened by the lessons of Southeast Asian financial crisis, from 65438 to 0997, China's financial system has made remarkable achievements in preventing and resolving financial risks. Its core is to reform the internal legal person system and authorized credit system of banks, so that banks can be more strict, cautious and scientific in evaluating projects and managing funds, and at the same time weaken the overall financial supply capacity (some branches do not have the right to approve loans). This increasingly rational economic and financial environment reduces the operating efficiency of selective monetary policy, and forms a trend that credit resources are concentrated in advantageous areas (coastal areas) and advantageous industries (electric power, telecommunications, tobacco, etc.). ) and advantageous enterprises (listed companies and large enterprise groups), and are constantly strengthening. Inland areas, small and medium-sized enterprises and private economy lack necessary financial support, which leads to the conclusion that the funds in the banking system are idle and the marketing is "reluctant to lend". In this regard, some people seek the answer to the above questions from the transmission mechanism of money channels. Increasing the policy effect of active monetary policy from dredging the transmission mechanism has certain positive significance and will also receive certain results, but it fails to grasp the essence of the problem. Especially after the operation mechanism of market economy is basically established, the institutional basis of monetary policy has undergone fundamental changes, and corresponding operation transmission mechanisms and carriers are needed to form a risk and benefit distribution mechanism suitable for the operation of market finance, so as to fundamentally solve the lack of initiative and creative institutional induction of commercial banks in transmitting monetary policy, which is the fundamental way to overcome the poor credit transmission channels.
Fifth, the coordination mechanism between monetary policy and fiscal policy needs to be further improved. Monetary policy has formed a policy tool system with three traditional tools: "open market operation, rediscount and deposit reserve" and "window guidance". However, due to the lack of necessary institutional carrier and perfect market operation mechanism in the use and operation of the above tools, the pace of interest rate marketization is difficult, and the characteristics of the coexistence of financial system and financial system are obvious. The perfect monetary policy regulation mechanism lacks the support of system guarantee and operation mechanism. The effect of monetary policy, especially the repair effect of the crowding-out effect of fiscal policy, is often restricted by the ability of administrative or decision-makers and operators. Especially as an important tool to link the two macroeconomic policies, there are still some prominent contradictions and problems in the operation and marketization of national debt, and an effective national debt market has not yet been formed. Coupled with the problems in the types and maturities of national debt, the number of national debt that the central bank can buy and sell is small, and it is difficult to achieve utilization. Therefore, the future reform should gradually establish and improve the national debt market by improving the variety and maturity structure of national debt, so as to create conditions for expanding the open market business of the central bank. In short, only when there is an efficient and liquid national debt market can it not only provide a huge source of funds for finance, but also provide the central bank with the means to regulate the economy and fully realize the combination of its fiscal policy and monetary policy.
Sixth, fiscal policy fades out and monetary policy makes up for the problem. At present, quite a few scholars and government officials are actively discussing monetary policy to make up for the exit space of active fiscal policy. The key for monetary policy to make up for the withdrawal of fiscal policy is to promote the economy to maintain the necessary investment to ensure the stability of the price level. The economic sectors where the proactive fiscal policy plays a role are often those with high credit availability, rather than those with financing difficulties. In this sense, there is no need for monetary policy to make up for the exit space of fiscal policy. Only in the sense of aggregate, it is necessary for monetary policy to play a role in promoting the economy, so as to maintain necessary investment and stabilize the price index. In this regard, the policy space of monetary policy mainly includes: (1) further lowering the loan interest rate, especially lowering the long-term loan interest rate. Further reducing the loan interest rate can reduce the cost of social investment and promote social investment. At present, China's loan interest rate is still above 5%, the spread of commercial banks is above 3 percentage points, and there is still room for further reduction of loan interest rate. (2) Increase financial support for small and medium-sized financial institutions, promote investment in small and medium-sized enterprises, increase credit support for small and medium-sized private economies, promote the growth of total social investment, and stabilize the price index. Only in this sense can monetary policy make up for the possibility of exiting the active fiscal policy.