Unlike A shares, US stocks can short individual stocks. At present, US stocks have oversold because of the interest rate hike cycle, that is, they can only be emptied when the stock price is very low, but empty orders need to cover positions. In the process of covering positions, there will be a strong rebound, that is, empty, high-level empty orders to cover positions to achieve profitability, low-level empty orders to kill.
1. Foreign media reported that the scale of tax reduction even exceeded the tax reduction measures introduced during Margaret Thatcher's administration, the largest in 50 years.
Once.
The main tax reduction measures are as follows: What about the evaporation of money that did not exist originally? Quantitative easing supports asset bubbles, tightens money supply and squeezes out bubbles. It's normal to wonder why it hasn't been blown yet. There may be no interest rate hike, or there may be a time lag in raising interest rates, and the effect will take some time. The plan to raise corporate tax to 25% was cancelled, which reduced the regulatory obstacles to enterprises and restrictions on land use planning, made way for British buildings, and provided value-added tax rebates for tourists. The main reason is that the Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 points in its left hand and launched a fiscal easing tax reduction plan in its right hand. Knowing that Wang made it clear from the beginning, he should listen to the strong American government. Although the Democratic Party is not strong, it has continued to push the irrigation bill, which shows that it still has enough strength to carry out party rotation. ?
Second, US stocks are no longer suitable for shorting, but they are very suitable for rebounding. I said that investment banks had a lot of cash in their hands before raising interest rates.
Don't be too bearish on US stocks. The point of view remains unchanged. The profit-loss ratio of existing positions in US stocks is already high. Many people in the market had previously judged that the Fed would start to postpone raising interest rates in September and stop raising interest rates in February next year. In order to cooperate with Biden's new
The adopted water release plan.
Judging from the interests of Biden's government, if inflation continues to be loose and people are dissatisfied, sending money is a shortcut. The United Kingdom has made an obscene operation, sending bonds directly to the European Union for three kills, sweeping away the summer gains of US stocks. So I also think that the United States will probably continue to use water to fight inflation. But I only guessed Biden's release of water, not the return of the Federal Reserve.
It is necessary to strengthen pumping.
Judging from this meeting of the Federal Reserve, we will continue to focus on the interests of Wall Street, and the global attitude of pushing the tide to suck blood is very firm.
If this situation is not contained, for example, after the Democratic Party unexpectedly wins the mid-term, it will turn to the Federal Reserve to settle accounts, and then the global economic recession will be inevitable.
The fluctuation of the stock market also reflects the fundamental interest difference between market judgment and Fed operation.
Third, the rare plunge across the board, from national debt, stock market, foreign exchange market to futures, mostly hit historical lows. It's time to witness the miracle. The US 10-year national debt has reached a new high of 3.5 years and 12 years, which is comparable to the US subprime mortgage crisis. This is the risk yardstick of the investment community. The higher the risk, the more cautious the investment, and the colder the economy. At the same time, the securities strategist of Bank of America will crash the bonds.
This market is called bond bear market. The first time was 1899- 1920, and the second time was 1946- 198 1 year. The US stock market hit a two-year low and was on the verge of an explosion of corporate debt. If it goes down for a long time, let's pay attention to the top 500 American companies. When corporate debt exploded, the United States was completely finished, and the world's top 500 companies could not resist their leverage. The top 500 companies are all dead. What's left of America? Is there only a manned moon landing? Just now, the pound fell to the second lowest level in history, with a level of 1985 and an epic dive of 1985. What happened? 1984-
1985 British miners went on strike.
The yen fell back to the position of 1990 during the bubble burst, the euro fell to 1999, and gold plummeted during the bombing of Yugoslavia. Oil prices plummeted. What about an agreed economic recovery It's gone. Whether it can fall out of the negative value again, we wait patiently. I didn't want it a while ago
Russian oil is limited to 44 dollars a barrel, but Russia doesn't sell it at all. Now, the United States wants to put its own oil.
The futures price also reached $44 a barrel, right? What are the commandments? Maybe that's it.
As far as the dollar index is concerned, the United States is so disabled that it can still rise to the high of 1 15.
But this is not the normal strength of American Secondary Two. Now the global business is bonus hunter. Everything is fake, but bonus hunter is real. At first, this strategy was aimed at high inflation, but it did not succeed in the end. On the contrary, it has reduced the social stability of the United States in disguise.
If you need welfare support, you can continue to stage a zero-yuan purchase this winter.
If there is really no way out, the United States will not make up its mind to do so. By the way, the United States is absorbing Europe to save itself.
Routine probably won't work, because the EU may be forced by the economy, and France and Germany will take the lead in compromising with Russia. I don't think Poland can really stop France and Germany. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate hike will bring more pain. The American economy may enter recession in early 2023, and the unemployment rate will rise with a high probability. Analysts at Bank of America wrote in a report that investor sentiment undoubtedly reached 2008.
At the most pessimistic level since the financial crisis, investors turned to cash and avoided almost all other asset classes.
In the medium term, high U.S. government debt will restrict interest rate hikes, which may eventually force the Fed to tolerate inflation. Although Powell tries to avoid creating recession panic, the market may still price in the direction of recession. This recession is more likely to be stagflation recession, that is to say, both US stocks and debts have been killed or have not yet ended, and US stocks are still far from the bottom of the market. ?
Aggressive fiscal planning, coupled with recent bleak economic data, has brought a comprehensive earthquake to European and American markets. Goldman Sachs global equity strategist's view is more pessimistic. He predicted that the expected path for the S&P 500 to fall to 2,900 points under the global economic recession was higher than our previous assumption, which made the performance of the stock market lower than our forecast.