According to official sources, as of February 28th, 65438, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products market was 26. 17 yuan/kg, down 1.5% from the previous day. Recently, the price of pork has gradually loosened. However, many netizens reported that the price of pork purchased by residents in most areas in the north and south remained at around 15 yuan/kg.
In the egg market, at present, the average price of eggs in the domestic agricultural products wholesale market is 5.53 yuan/kg, down 0.9% from the previous day. However, in the production and marketing market, the average wholesale price of eggs has fallen sharply, and the price of eggs in some producing areas has fallen below 4 yuan/kg.
As for the price of beef and mutton, at this stage, the price of beef and mutton remains at a high level. The average wholesale price of beef is 77.69 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of mutton is 67. 15 yuan/kg. For ordinary residents, beef and mutton are still unattainable!
First, the pig price fluctuates and falls, and the decline will be "a flash in the pan"!
At present, the New Year holiday is approaching, but the domestic consumer market is weak. The root cause is that the mask problem is still obvious in curbing consumption. Recently, in the northern and southern regions of China, ordinary residents have concentrated on "turning to Yang", and residents mainly rest at home. Food and beverage demand is limited, the supermarket wholesale market is sparsely populated, the market is not smooth, and the consumer market is sluggish!
In the hog market, due to the lack of consumer support, farmers' willingness to stand at the station price increased at the end of 65438+February. Recently, pig prices have risen against the trend. In just a few days, the price of pigs rose by over 14.6%. However, with the rise in the price of live pigs, the market price recognition sentiment has become stronger, and the price of pigs has fluctuated downwards!
According to statistics, on February 29, 65438, the pig price dropped by 0.47 yuan, and the average price of ternary standard pigs outside the country fell to 17.44 yuan/kg. The one-day drop in pig prices remained at 2.6%, up 8.6% year-on-year!
The price of live pigs fluctuated downward, and the key lies in the sharp rise in market sentiment. In the past few days, the average price of live pigs has risen rapidly from 15.63 yuan/kg to 17.9 1 yuan/kg, and the profitability of the breeding end has improved. The market recognition sentiment is heating up, and the enthusiasm of pig supply in retail pig farms in northern China is improving. Slaughtering enterprises are affected by the poor delivery of white pigs in the downstream wholesale market.
However, due to the reduction of the plan to market collectivize pig enterprises at the end of the month, coupled with the high sentiment of farmers against the decline in pig prices, the market sentiment of price reduction has once again strengthened, and the decline in pig prices may be unsustainable. In the short term, the game between supply and demand in the market intensifies, and pig prices may continue to fluctuate strongly!
Second, the price of eggs "dived", and the market bullish sentiment warmed up!
At present, the average wholesale price of eggs in the domestic production and marketing market has fallen sharply. Among them, the average delivery price of eggs in producing areas has dropped to 4.22 yuan/kg, and the price of eggs in selling areas has bottomed out in 4.3 yuan/kg! In domestic sub-regional markets, institutional data show that the price of eggs in mainstream areas of Hebei dropped to 3.87~4. 1 yuan/kg, and the average price of local cultured products in Xingtai and Handan fell below 4 yuan/kg.
In Shandong, the mainstream egg price has stabilized at 4. 1~4.3 yuan/kg, while in Henan, the average egg price is about 4.35~4.4 yuan/kg!
At present, the domestic egg price is stable and weak, and the egg falling trend is gradually improving. On the one hand, with the continuous expansion of the scale of laying hens, the egg inventory at the breeding end has gradually improved, but at this stage, the egg inventory is still at a low level year-on-year; On the other hand, the enthusiasm of personnel mobility in many places in China has gradually increased, and the consumption enthusiasm of restaurants and supermarkets has gradually recovered. New Year's Day and Spring Festival are just around the corner, and the replenishment demand of food factories and terminal markets is gradually improving! Therefore, the price of eggs has bottomed out and rebounded. Personally, in the short term, the price of eggs will gradually get rid of the price depression, and the market will show a trend of shock and strength!
Third, the soybean meal market fluctuated!
Recently, in the domestic soybean meal market, due to the price sentiment of mainstream oil plants, the domestic soybean meal market has bottomed out due to the low stock of soybean meal in the market at this stage, the domestic catering industry is deserted, the delivery of soybean oil is not smooth, the profit margin of oil plants has declined, and the price sentiment of oil plants has turned stronger due to the high cost of imported soybeans!
However, since the end of the year, the mood of concentrated slaughter at the breeding end has increased sharply, feed enterprises have cautiously replenished their stocks, and the demand for soybean meal has gradually slowed down. However, the scale of soybean crushing in oil plants is increasing, and the inventory of soybean meal in enterprises is increasing. According to institutional analysis, the soybean meal inventory of domestic sample enterprises has reached 503,900 tons this week, which is nearly 70% higher than that of 165438+ at the beginning of October.
The supply capacity of soybean meal is gradually improving, and the quotation of enterprises is weak!
According to institutional data, the prices of domestic mainstream traders have dropped by 40~50 yuan/ton, among which the price of soybean meal in Tianjin is 4630 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 4600 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu is 46 10 yuan/ton, and that in Guangdong is 4680 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream traders have dropped by about 40~50 yuan/ton.
According to the institutional analysis, as soybean imports reach 140 ships this month, the scale will reach 965,438+10,000 tons, the operating rate of oil plants will remain high, and the supply capacity of spot soybean meal will continue to improve. At the end of the year, feed enterprises still have a certain demand for stocking. However, due to the gradual easing of soybean meal supply capacity, enterprises are cautious. In particular, the decline in domestic feed production at the end of the year will also limit the rise of soybean meal market.
Fourth, corn prices are about to bottom out!
Recently, domestic spot corn prices have fallen frequently. Due to the mask problem, the pace of selling grain by grass-roots farmers slowed down, which also led to the gradual release of corn supply capacity at the end of the year, the sharp increase in cash demand of grass-roots and traders, the increase in domestic spot corn circulation, the relatively loose arrival of enterprises at the factory, and the factory's price reduction. The quotation of mainstream corn processing enterprises in Shandong has gradually dropped to about 1.47 yuan/kg!
However, due to the high bullish sentiment in the market, grassroots farmers have extended the corn stocking cycle, and the market's resistance to price cuts has rebounded. Due to the rising cost of corn planting, the planting area of corn in many places in Northeast China has decreased this year, and soybean substitution planting has increased. Grass-roots farmers' reluctance to sell has become stronger and stronger, traders' inventory is less, and deep processing enterprises still have the demand for centralized replenishment before the holiday. Under the long-short game, the price of corn is about to bottom out, and the price is still fluctuating!
According to institutional analysis, before New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the domestic spot corn purchase and sale performance is still active, and the corn price will still fluctuate within a narrow range. But in the medium and long term, the corn supply gap is still obvious. Due to the rising international commodity prices and the rising cost of imported corn, some domestic traders turn to domestic corn purchasing and storage, and the corn supply gap is more obvious!
In stages, the trend of corn price will be weak in February and March next year. After all, enterprises mainly consume inventory, but with the increase of grain market in Northeast China, the market volume of tide grain will increase, and the price of corn will lack support! From April to May, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level has basically bottomed out, policy regulation has gradually emerged, the inventory of enterprises has been continuously consumed, and the center of gravity of corn prices will gradually move up. However, from June to July, with the arrival of summer wheat, traders tend to hoard goods, the supply of corn market rebounded briefly, and the price fluctuated weakly. However, in the medium and long term, the domestic spot corn price will remain high, and the listing price of enterprises may hover at 6544.
New Year's Day is approaching, pigs and eggs are falling, the soybean meal market is fluctuating, and corn is about to bottom out! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!