Commodity period and spot price will not deviate forever. Similarly, with the arrival of the delivery month, rebar futures and spot prices will tend to be consistent, and the two prices will gradually return, unless there is a serious vicious forced position in the futures market.
Generally speaking, the return of the two kinds of rebar prices in the future can be realized in two ways, which determines the two trends of spot prices in the future rebar period.
One is that the achievements of steel de-capacity and banning "strip steel" have been consolidated, the current spot price tends to be stable, and the futures price returns to the spot price. At present, the competent authorities have indicated that they should continue to eliminate the excess capacity of steel and take various measures to prevent the resurgence of "strip steel". If the above measures can achieve great results, the growth rate of crude steel and steel production in China will be "halved" or even lower than 3% in 20 18, and the actual growth rate of rebar production will be even lower. Affected by this, after the spring of 20 18, the rebar market may continue to show a tight situation, resulting in a high spot price, forcing the monthly delivery price of rebar to gradually close to the spot price, thus driving the main contract price to fluctuate upward.
The other is that the actual supply has increased substantially, which has suppressed the spot price of rebar from falling sharply and returned to the current main futures contract price. That is to say, because of the lucrative sales price and other factors, at the beginning of the new year, the actual supply of steel in China, especially rebar, increased rapidly, which reversed the relationship between supply and demand and suppressed the spot price of rebar from falling sharply. In this case, the spot price of rebar will return to the futures price in the delivery month, and drive the price of the main forward contract to fall.
From the current point of view, in the above two major trends of rebar prices, the former seems more likely.