The recent decline in corn is a bit tragic.
First, it has been down for some time. Recently, North China, Shandong and Northeast China have all fallen. Even Shandong, which has always been looking at cars and vegetables, has seen a market with few cars and a continuous decline.
This is really a bit surprising.
For the follow-up trend of corn, there are two views on the market at present:
One thinks that the general trend of corn is hard to change, and there are many subsequent shocks, so it is difficult to return to the high point.
Another view is that corn is in the darkness before dawn and is about to break through the darkness and move towards the light.
In view of the strong opposition between the two views, let's analyze what corn is.
1. Why does corn keep falling?
The decline of corn is mainly affected by three factors:
First, wheat has been falling recently, and wheat has always been considered as the ceiling of corn. Now the ceiling moves down, naturally suppressing corn.
Second, the persistence of a round of rainy weather in late June made some changes in the market.
In fact, after the rain, some corn faces the risk of resurgence, and the increase in quantity is actually expected.
Third, some time ago, international food prices fell under pressure, and some even fell back to the level before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, making the whole market bearish.
The fourth is market sentiment.
The surge in pig prices is driven by market sentiment, and the decline in corn sentiment has also played a big role.
Multiple factors are superimposed together, and corn is in a downturn. The downturn makes the market sentiment depressed, so corn keeps falling.
2. Several conditions for the rise of corn?
But is it really impossible for corn to fall? According to the new agricultural concept, this is not necessarily the case. At present, the market has entered a multi-party separatist situation, but there are also some factors conducive to the rise of corn:
First, the trend of the international market is more only an emotional impact, because the domestic grain market is relatively independent, and the direct impact of international food prices is relatively small.
In addition, international food prices have not fallen. It turned out to be an upward trend after a short decline. After all, the rise in food prices is not driven by a single factor, so it must be combined with many factors to fall back. Obviously, this is not easy.
Second, it is the domestic supply and demand that determines the price of corn.
On the supply side, it is a fact that the corn planting area has decreased this year, which is about120,000 mu. In addition, the weather in Northeast China is unstable, so both yield and quality are variables. On the other hand, imported corn has always been an important supplement to the gap between domestic supply and demand, but this year, affected by the international situation, there has been a rare phenomenon that the cost of imported corn and domestic corn is upside down, and imported corn has been suppressed.
In the long run, the inversion of import costs and domestic prices will not last forever, so in the end, either import costs will fall or domestic prices will rise. As we said just now, international food prices do not have the conditions for a sharp drop, so the biggest possibility is that the international part will fall back and the domestic part will rise, eventually reaching a new balance.
Third, we said that the continuous decline is mainly affected by emotions, but emotions are also a double-edged sword. When it falls to a certain extent, it will lead to the costs and benefits of traders opening positions, but there will be resistance to price conflicts.
So emotions will not develop in one direction.
Fourth, although the shutdown and overhaul led to a decrease in the demand for deep processing, the increase in pig prices led to an increase in the demand of feed enterprises. It is expected that there will be a gap at the end of the month and the beginning of next month, and there is still a certain time before the new corn goes on the market, which also leaves room for the rise of corn.
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In fact, from the recent trend, we can find that with the rebound of the international market and the recovery of the futures market, the decline of corn in the domestic market has slowed down. However, in view of the fact that the shock of wheat will continue for some time, it is unlikely that corn will rebound in a short time. It is necessary to collect more market changes from the end of the month to the beginning of the month, otherwise there may be changes.
For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.