At midnight on February 10, 2015 (24:00 on February 9), a new round of oil price adjustment window will open. According to the trend of international oil prices in the past half month, domestic oil prices will rise for the first time in more than half a year after "thirteen consecutive declines".
On February 10, 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it would increase domestic refined oil prices. Starting from 0:00 on February 10, gasoline and diesel prices would increase by 290 yuan and 280 yuan per ton, equivalent to 90# gasoline and 0# Diesel prices increased by 0.21 yuan and 0.24 yuan per liter respectively. On a national average, 92-proof gasoline increased by 0.22 yuan per liter and 95-proof gasoline increased by 0.24 yuan per liter. This is also the first rise in domestic oil prices since July 2014, after a rare "13th consecutive decline". This oil price adjustment does not involve consumption tax.
The market generally believes that since the fundamentals of supply and demand have not significantly improved, the recent rebound in international oil prices does not mean that oil prices will return to the upward channel in the short term. The market is expected to return to rationality after digesting factors such as a reduction in drilling rigs and oil producers cutting spending. However, the space for oil prices to continue to bottom out is also very limited.
Regarding today’s increase in oil prices, Lin Boqiang [Weibo], director of the Energy Economics Research Center of Xiamen University, believes: At present, international oil prices are still experiencing significant fluctuations. This increase in oil prices does not mean that the turning point is coming. In the future The trend remains unclear.
It costs 10 yuan more to fill up a tank of oil
February 6 is the ninth working day of this pricing cycle, and it is also the day when international crude oil can be calculated (51.92, 0.23, 0.44 %) price on the last trading day. As low oil prices caused more U.S. drilling to shut down, international oil prices continued to rebound that day, with New York light crude oil futures for March delivery rising $1.21 to close at $51.69 per barrel. This also makes it no longer suspense that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase today.
Since the first reduction in oil prices on July 22, 2014, thirteen consecutive declines have resulted in a cumulative reduction in refined oil prices per liter: gasoline by 2.03 yuan and diesel by 2.4 yuan. Based on this calculation, a private car with a 50-liter fuel tank can save 100 yuan by filling up a tank of fuel. This increase in oil prices will not have a great impact on ordinary private car owners, as each tank of oil only costs 10 yuan more.
International oil prices may continue to fluctuate
Does the recent rebound in international oil prices mean that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will once again experience a strong rise? The market generally believes that since the fundamentals of supply and demand have not improved significantly, the recent rebound in international oil prices does not mean that oil prices will return to the upward channel in the short term. The market is expected to return to rationality after digesting factors such as a reduction in drilling rigs and oil producers cutting spending. However, the space for oil prices to continue to bottom out is also very limited.
“The recent sharp rise and fall indicate that this round of oil price adjustment may be close to the bottom. The role of financial speculation factors in oil price fluctuations has begun to become prominent, and the game between bullish and bearish expectations is intensifying.” National Information Center Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Office of the Economic Forecast Department, said.
With the market sentiment that international oil prices may be close to the bottom, slight changes in many factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitics, and financial speculation that have affected oil prices in the past may cause large fluctuations in international oil prices. . It is expected that international oil prices will continue to maintain a highly volatile shock pattern in the near future, which will also bring about fluctuations in domestic refined oil prices.
International oil prices have rebounded recently. Although they plummeted by nearly 9% on February 4 in this pricing cycle, they rebounded rapidly in the following few trading days. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, as of the penultimate working day of this pricing cycle, the change rate of international oil prices was 7.84%, and the corresponding domestic oil price adjustment was 305 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.22 yuan per liter of gasoline. Around 0.26 yuan per liter of diesel will be raised. As international oil prices began to enter a downward trend in June last year, domestic oil prices ushered in thirteen consecutive rounds of downward adjustments for six and a half months from July 22 last year to January 27, 2015. During the thirteenth consecutive decline in domestic oil prices, taking No. 92 gasoline in Beijing as an example, the price per liter has dropped by a cumulative 2.21 yuan, from the "quasi-8 yuan" era of 7.98 yuan/liter seven months ago to 5.77 yuan/liter. The rising 5 yuan era.