Current location - Trademark Inquiry Complete Network - Futures platform - The concept of delivery day curse
The concept of delivery day curse

However, in fact, not all markets with stock index futures products will have an "expiration date effect". Whether the "expiration date effect" occurs depends on how the delivery and settlement price of stock index futures is determined. It is determined by factors such as whether the last trading day of stock index futures coincides with the active trading day of the spot market, and whether the expiration date of stock index futures and other derivatives expire at the same time. Even if there is an increase in spot market trading volume on the delivery day, it cannot be proven that it was caused by the competition between long and short parties for the stock index futures delivery settlement price.

The "expiration date effect" is not universal in overseas markets. Through empirical analysis, there is no "expiration date effect" in the current stock index futures markets in Taiwan, Hong Kong and other countries. However, in the early stages of the development of the stock index futures market, this phenomenon often occurred because there was no mature market experience to draw from. Even in mature markets, the "triple witch effect" would occur, which is the difference that occurs when stock index futures and stock index options expire. Based on some usual trading phenomena, relevant research has found that in the last hour of the expiration date of all index derivatives contracts, there will be abnormally large trading volume and small stock price fluctuations. Trading activity in S&P 500 stocks decreases significantly in the last half hour before expiration close and increases significantly during the opening period of expiration. The delivery and settlement price of Taiwan stock index futures has been revised many times to achieve the goal of eliminating the "maturity date effect". Therefore, the key to whether the "maturity date effect" occurs in stock index futures lies in the institutional arrangement of its delivery and settlement price.