According to the report of Securities Times in May 16, recently, shipping prices have jumped continuously, and some related futures products that track freight rates have even increased five times in half a year. The reasons for the increase in shipping prices are influenced by many factors, including the increase in the cost of some routes. A report by Industrial Securities shows that the interest rate peaked at the end of 2023, and the demand for goods in the United States gradually increased. At the same time, the United States ended its one-and-a-half-year-long warehousing cycle and began to cover positions. Specifically, industries with high export dependence, such as equipment, furniture, textiles and clothing, showed signs of restocking. The inventory replenishment in the United States is basically synchronized with imports. Therefore, the increase in the growth rate of US imports may stimulate the exports of relevant countries. This year's shipping season comes ahead of schedule, and the problem of insufficient supply of transportation capacity is superimposed, and the freight rate naturally rises rapidly.
In addition, according to the report of "China Business News" in May 18, industry insiders analyzed that the improvement of European and American market demand and the protracted Red Sea crisis are the main reasons for the current increase in freight rates. With the arrival of the traditional shipping season, the price of container transportation will continue to rise in the future.
To sum up, although it is impossible to determine the specific trend of shipping prices in the next two months, it can be inferred from the trend of freight rates, market conditions and related reports in previous years that shipping prices are still likely to rise in the next two months.