First, the popularity is extremely high. This wave of market has been rising in the debate. There are many short-term customers, and it is said every day. Investors are highly vigilant. At the first sign of trouble, many people leave, and their popularity has not been high. In this case, it is almost impossible for the main players to get away with it. In this case, the probability of the market peaking is also very small.
Second, the market should have a large number of profitable discs. Since this wave of market rise, although the index has risen a lot, not many people really make money. In this case, the probability of the market peaking is almost zero.
Third, whether the policy has changed. The characteristics of the first few waves are very obvious. Management often adopts direct fiscal policies to intervene, some raise the reserve ratio and interest rates, and some publish editorials in important media to warn of risks. So far, there has not been any tightening policy in this wave of markets, and Premier Wen made it clear a few days ago that the impact of the volume crisis still exists and that a proactive and loose fiscal policy will be implemented. It can be said that the current stock market environment is still very good. In addition to the slight impact of the rapid issuance of new shares, the policy support for the stock market is still very strong, because the rise of the stock market can effectively stimulate domestic demand and restore financing functions for a large number of enterprises. This is the result that the government is most willing to see, so it is unlikely that the market will peak in this case.
Fourth, the MACD dead fork is the peak signal.
After a sharp rise, the stock price appeared sideways, forming a relatively high point. Friends, especially those with large funds, must ship or lighten their positions at the first selling point. At this time, the skill to judge the establishment of the first selling point is "stock price sideways, MACD dead fork", and the day of the dead fork is the time when the first selling point is formed. After the first selling point was formed, some stocks did not plummet. It may be that the bulls pretended to break through the replenishment shipment after the callback and made the last pull-up before the shipment. The skill to judge the absolute peak is that when the stock price rises to a new high with an imaginary wave, the MACD cannot be synchronized, and the area of the second red wave is obviously not as large as that of the previous wave, indicating that the volume can continue to decline, and the trend of the two deviates, which is an obvious signal that the stock price peaks. The high point formed at this time is often the highest point of the bull market. If you can't escape smoothly at this time, the consequences will be unimaginable. It must be noted that when selling stocks at the absolute top, you must never wait for MACD to die before selling, because the stock price has fallen a lot when MACD died. When selling stocks at the top of the imaginary wave, you must refer to the K-line combination. This is also the defect of MACD as a mid-line indicator.
5.KDJ is in bipolar form, that is, it reaches its peak.
Under normal circumstances, after a long-term or rapid unilateral trend, the market shows a heavy volume or extreme reversal trend. At the same time, combined with classical technical evidence, such as the K value of KDJ line around the K line of the gap star reaches above 85, this is a typical peak signal. When the J value of KDJ indicator changes and turns down, sell 50% first; When the k value changes, you can prepare to sell it at ordinary times, and when the k value changes, turn around and clear the warehouse; This is the last selling point when the KDJ indicator forms a dead fork. However, due to the technical "bottom at the bottom" situation, this KDJ indicator often fails.
6. Be careful when you grow shadow lines.
The long shadow line is an obvious signal of peaking. In the rising market, the stock price rises to a certain stage, with a continuous high volume or 3-5 consecutive trading days, and the daily turnover rate is above 4%. When the maximum turnover rate appears, its turnover rate often exceeds 10%, indicating that the main force is pulling the boat. If there is a long shadow line at the close, it means that the high position is falling and the selling pressure is heavy. If the stock price cannot recover the upper shadow line of the previous day, then the transaction will begin to shrink, indicating that the market outlook will be adjusted. In this case, we must resolutely reduce or even clear positions.
Seven, high crossing is a sign of risk.
After the sharp rise, the systemic risk of the market may be gestating an outbreak. At this time, we should pay special attention to the daily K line. On the same day, a cross star appeared on the K-line or an inverted hammer-shaped positive line or negative line with a long shadow line, which was the key to selling stocks. The high cross on the K-line indicates that there are strong differences between long and short positions, and the situation may change from the buyer's market to the seller's market. The high cross star is like a red light at the crossroads when driving, reflecting that the market will turn and it can be shipped to avoid risks.
Eight, double-headed, multi-headed form to avoid.
When the stock price no longer forms a new breakthrough and forms a second head, it must be resolutely sold, because the first head to the second head is the main distribution stage. M-shape is that the right peak is lower than the left peak, but it is boat-shaped. Sometimes the right peak may form a polymorphic form higher than the left peak, and what is even more frightening is to reverse the decline. As for other head types, such as head and shoulder top, triple top and dome, the same is true. As long as it falls below the neckline support, it is necessary to quickly close the position to avoid expanding losses.
9. Break through the important moving averages and be alert to changes.
After heavy volume, the stock price fell below the 10 moving average, which could not be recovered, and the following five-week line was also broken down, so it should be resolutely sold. For those who have just been quilted, it is especially beneficial to quit at this time. How to confirm the support level here is particularly critical. Generally speaking, when the 10 moving average breaks the position on the first day, it is the confirmation of breaking the position when it is pulled back the next day, but it can't hold the support level (for example, the 30-day moving average), and it is the time to lighten the position when it is pulled back. If the stock price continues to break through important moving average indicators such as the 30-day or 60-day moving average, it will resolutely clear the position. In addition, with the downward adjustment of the stock price, a downward channel has gradually formed, and the moving average and the weekly moving average are arranged in short positions. If there is a rebound afterwards and the stock price does not stand firm on the 30-day or 60-day moving average, it should be resolutely sold.
X. one-day "T+0" trading reduces costs.
Mainly rely on the daily fluctuation of the stock price, with a small price difference to solve the problem. For example, quilt cover 100, today the stock opened lower or the stock price fell. When the price stabilizes and tends to rebound, immediately buy 100 shares. Once the stock rises, you can make a profit by selling the previous 65,438+000 shares. If the stock opens higher or peaks, you can sell 100 shares first, and then buy back 100 shares after the stock price falls, so as to reduce the loss of the falling part. In this way, the increased income can be doubled or even multiplied, and the decreased income may reduce the loss or even gain, thus reducing the cost until the problem is solved.
In addition, there are several signs that the market has peaked:
1. It is a sign of increasing quantity and lagging price. This sign is more intuitive. For example, after a period of shrinking or even rising indefinitely, the volume of transactions suddenly increased significantly one day. At this time, the index did not rise, or rose slightly, but overall, the loss was more than the gain. After analysis, this is a typical sign of the top, the index stocks have driven the market, and there is suspicion that Zhuanggu is in the process of reversal.
2. It is the high positioning of new shares. On the first day of listing, if the new shares are sold at a "sky-high price" in one step, and it is a bit outrageous, this can compare the stock allocation through the price comparison effect;
This is the acceleration of expansion. If the expansion speed is significantly higher than the pace of a stage, such as issuing 3 to 4 new shares a week for several months, and suddenly increasing to issuing 5 to 6 new shares a week in the near future, it is a sign that the market is about to peak;
4. The weak news increased. If the media exposes the fraud of listed companies and the regulatory authorities investigate and deal with market irregularities, the measures to be implemented will be obviously restrained, and the stock critics will sing well, especially the stock critics will sing more, because at this stage, the stock critics will sing more and the market will peak;