1. Speculation is a dynamic response to market risks.
The operation of the economic system itself needs to be consumed, that is, the operating cost. Operating cost is called "transaction cost" in economics, and an important part of transaction cost is "risk cost". In fact, there are risks in the long journey of any economic system, even the planned economic system. The risk cost of the planned economic system is entirely borne by the state, so on the surface, the market risk is completely covered up. Under the planned economy system, people can't see the existence of risks, have no motivation to avoid and transfer risks, and have no ability to use risks. Under the condition of market economy system, market subjects must bear the risk cost themselves in the face of market risks. If we want to avoid or transfer risks, we must pay the cost of risk transfer; At the same time, the market must also have the object of risk transfer-risk takers. The essence of speculation is to take risks, and speculators play the role of risk takers in the market.
The original intention of speculation is to identify opportunities and decide on actions. As a kind of market behavior, speculation refers to choosing the best opportunity in the fierce market competition, making full use of the time difference (including seasonal difference) and spatial difference (including regional difference) of various factors in market operation, and promoting the flow of resources in the direction of rational allocation to meet market demand and produce good economic benefits.
Under the condition of market economy, any kind of commercial investment contains the expectation of uncertain commodity prices in the future and bears market risks, so the whole commercial investment is actually speculative investment, and even all market behaviors are full of speculative factors-this is market speculation in a broad sense. Generally speaking, the so-called speculation, first of all, to predict and judge the frequently changing commodity prices in the market, and then use the fluctuation of market prices for venture capital-this is a narrow interpretation of market speculation. In short, speculation is a dynamic response to market risks.
Second, speculation is the basic strategy of commercial transactions.
There is much speculation in the spot market. In Cantonese, "speculation" means speculation, such as "stock speculation" and "foreign exchange speculation", which are typical spot market speculation. There are also metal spot speculation, commodity spot speculation and so on. Futures trading is different from spot trading, which is a kind of buying and selling, while futures trading is both commodity trading and speculation. Therefore, speculation in the term loan market actually refers to risk speculation in the futures market. In order to distinguish the speculation in spot market and futures market, western economists call the speculation in futures market "market creation behavior" or "factors to ensure market liquidity". Because futures speculation is indeed a short-term and high-risk investment, it makes sense for some domestic scholars to call it "short-term investment". Speculation in the futures market is different from that in the spot market. It is conducted on a standardized exchange and is strictly bound by the laws and regulations of the futures market. The subject matter of the transaction is not the physical object, but the standardized contract of the futures exchange, which has little freedom and strong controllability.
The operation of futures market can not be separated from speculative "short-term investment" behavior. There is no futures trading without speculation, because all the functions of the futures market are realized without speculation.
First of all, the commodity market has the function of avoiding risks, and traders in the futures market avoid risks by hedging. Hedging means that people who order or buy a commodity in the spot market are afraid of falling prices and suffer losses. In order to lock in risks, they sell a contract in the futures market, or sell a commodity in the spot market and suffer losses for fear of rising prices in the future, and buy a contract in the futures market or sell and buy a contract at the same time. The purpose of hedgers is not to lose money no matter how the price changes, lock in their own risks and pass on the risk loss or risk gain to others. However, if there are only hedgers and no speculators in the term loan market, it is impossible to transfer risks. Only when hedgers and speculators correspond can futures trading be realized and the futures market can play a role in avoiding risks. Secondly, the futures market has the function of price discovery, which is formed by a large number of supply and demand and sufficient market liquidity. If there is no speculation in the futures market, everyone will hedge, supply and demand will be insufficient, trading volume will be difficult to form a scale, and market liquidity will be very small. As a result, the price is extremely high and low, and it is difficult to form a real purchase price that objectively reflects the relationship between supply and demand.
Moreover, the function of the futures market to slow down price fluctuations is also inseparable from speculation. Speculators buy when prices fall, increasing demand and prompting price rebound; Sell when the price rises, restrain the demand and promote the price to fall. Therefore, speculation objectively regulates demand, thus buffering price fluctuations.
In a word, market speculation is the inevitable product of the futures market and the basic strategy of any commercial transaction. People who don't understand, can't speculate and are not good at speculation can hardly win in the market competition.
Third, speculation is a normal market behavior.
In fact, under the condition of market economy, speculation is a frequent economic behavior, specifically, it belongs to a normal market behavior. Under the planned economy system, speculation is condemned as an illegal act, while under the market economy system, speculation not only bears risks but also brings benefits, which is an indispensable economic means in market competition and should be treated correctly.
The characteristic of the planned economy system is to allocate social resources according to the plan of the central government, and the operation of social economy is completely planned and regulated, and speculation is not allowed. Moreover, even if the differences of various factors in economic operation are found, it is difficult to touch its hard constraints because of the relative solidification of the plan, it is difficult to adjust it randomly, and it is difficult to "vote" because of the "machine". Due to the conflict between speculation and planned regulation, the positive role of speculation in economic operation is denied, and speculation is only regarded as an illegal act that disrupts the planned system. For a long time, "speculation" has been compared with "bad" economic behaviors such as "profiteering" and "driving up prices", and speculation has become a taboo in people's economic life. Its influence has become an ideological obstacle to the current reform and opening up, invigorating the economy and transforming into a market system.
Under the market economy system, the rational allocation of social resources is realized through the role of the market. Social and economic operation conforms to the law of market supply and demand, and the price is mainly determined by the market, which can flexibly reflect the relationship between supply and demand of resources, such as relative scarcity. Social economy is a dynamic system, and the differences and imbalances of various factors are sensitively reflected by the market through various economic signals. If people can observe this difference through market signals with keen eyes, and actively make some response to make up for the difference and adjust the balance, they may be rewarded by some program, that is, produce benefits. Then, this is the normal economic behavior under market conditions-speculation. It cannot be said that the market economy is speculation, and speculation is the "lubricant" for the normal operation of the market economy.
Fourth, the role of speculation in the market economy.
The reason why speculation has become an inevitable product of market economy is fundamentally determined by the inherent laws and operating characteristics of market economy, and also depends on the important role of speculation as a market behavior in the process of market operation.
(1) One of the functions of speculation is to promote the flow of market information. In a sense, market economy is information economy, and the spread and exchange of information urges the market, the "invisible hand", to regulate production and exchange. However, due to various objective reasons, the flow of information is not always unimpeded and effective. With its keen observation, market speculation has captured and collected a large number of blocked information, and with its active communication ability, it has spread the original immobile and invalid information quickly and effectively, which has produced remarkable benefits.
(2) The second function of speculation is to mediate between buyers and sellers and adjust the relationship between supply and demand. As we all know, the market regulation function is characterized by its flexibility, locality and certain spontaneity. In the social and economic operation, there is often a phenomenon that in a long period, the total social demand and total supply are relatively balanced, but in a certain local area and a short period, the demand and supply are unbalanced, or the total supply and demand are relatively balanced according to the categories of production materials and consumption materials, but the supply and demand of some products are unbalanced according to the subcategories of consumption demand. In these cases, market regulation is easy to give full play to its advantages and make timely and effective responses, while speculation can often produce good results. Speculation can communicate production and marketing, intermediary transactions and realize transactions, which is helpful to adjust the relationship between supply and demand within a certain social scope and the surplus and deficiency of some social products. Speculation can link the seasonal differences between supply and demand of commodities with regional differences, objectively stabilize the price fluctuation range and make the market more liquid.
(3) The third function of speculation is to promote the rational flow of social resources and contribute to the rational allocation of social resources. An important function of market mechanism is to save and allocate social resources, which is formed through the linkage of price, supply and demand and competition. However, in the linkage system formed by price, supply and demand and competition, there are inevitably differences in time and space, and the linkage and cooperation of various elements are not always appropriate. This mismatch reduces the efficiency of the linkage system and causes the waste of social labor. Therefore, the market mechanism needs some market behavior to correct the mismatch caused by time difference and spatial difference, so as to overcome and make up for the losses and waste caused, and make social resources flow in a more reasonable direction and allocate in a more reasonable way. Speculation is a kind of market behavior that meets the needs of market mechanism operation. Although it is not the main way of market mechanism operation, it is still indispensable as a "lubricant" for market mechanism operation.
(4) The fourth function of speculation is conducive to market competition. Competition is an effective way to provide incentives and stimulate efficiency, which plays the role of survival of the fittest. Market competition is fair, just and open, so it is also ruthless. In order to win the competition, we must attach importance to the competitive strategy and be better at it, so as to defeat our competitors. Timing is an important competitive strategy, such as choosing the timing of new product production, investment, price change and advertising. These are all important competitive strategies and also belong to speculation. If you choose the right opportunity, you may win in the competition, otherwise you may fail. There is no competition if you don't speculate in the market.
(5) The fifth function of speculation is to bear and avoid risks. One of the characteristics of market mechanism is risk, and market economy is profit and loss economy and risk economy. Any kind of market behavior, such as investing and developing new products, has certain risks. Therefore, in the operation of market economy, avoiding risks or minimizing risks has become one of the specific goals that market players strive to achieve. Where there are market risks, there are adventurers. Speculators are not real market players, but their role is to make real market players avoid risks. Speculation always happens in fierce competition and changing market, which is full of risks and is a kind of risk speculation in itself. It is precisely because speculation bears risks that risks can be transferred in the market, making it possible to avoid risks, thus attracting more market risks and participating in market competition. It is precisely because speculation is risky that once it succeeds, it will get rich returns, and once it fails, it will suffer huge losses-this is the price of taking risks.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) hype needs to be standardized.
Speculation, as the embodiment of the market mechanism at the specific operational level, is a normal market behavior, and as one of many competitive strategies, it is an economic means that cannot be taken lightly and should be effectively utilized.
Just because speculation has some of the above functions, it can be said that under the condition of market economy, there is no profit without speculation. Of course, speculation also reflects the spontaneity and blindness of the market mechanism to a certain extent, and there is the possibility of improper behavior. In addition, excessive speculation will artificially aggravate abnormal market volatility. But the fault lies not in speculation itself, but in speculators. In order to prevent this negative phenomenon, and to make the risk of speculation not exceed the limit that ordinary individuals and society can bear, we must improve the management of the market as much as possible and standardize speculation. This requires a certain degree of macro-control of the market and strict restrictions on the qualifications of speculators, but we should not interfere with speculation at will, but have a perfect legal system to limit it within a reasonable range.
The so-called regulatory speculation means that under fair conditions and under fair supervision, speculation is openly carried out in commodity exchanges, futures exchanges, stock exchanges and other standardized occasions. The speculation we are allowed to advocate refers to "on-the-spot speculation" in legal exchanges. There is not much speculation in a market like China, but it is not enough. Of course, we should actively guide and strictly control non-standard and undisclosed "off-site speculation".
References:
/zjzx/mjzl/ Guangzhou /xyz/200508/4526.html