The financial crisis was caused by some of the smartest people in the world. These people have a strong scientific background, and their mathematical ability and imagination are quite good. When they are full all day and have nothing to do, they begin to fiddle with how to make complex and incomprehensible financial derivatives. From the perspective of game theory, many of these products are products of zero-sum game, but they have value under the transformation of financial analysts. There are warrants that have flourished in China stock market in recent years, and there are zero-cost collars and accumulators that have recently surfaced due to huge losses. From the philosophical point of view, the existence is reasonable, and the existence of these financial derivatives has certain value after the financial engineering is perfected. But just like Buffett's "financial weapons of mass destruction" at the beginning of this century, the market needs them, but only if they play their original design principles correctly. For example, the functions of futures are mainly price discovery and hedging.

In response to the crisis, China faces four major problems:

First, although China has issued a 4 trillion plan and has a series of measures, such as "National Ten Articles", "Financial Nine Articles" and "National Thirty Articles", the key now is whether the macro-economic policy driven by total demand and expansion can achieve rapid results in 2009, especially in the first half of this year. According to the data released in the first quarter, the GDP growth rate is 6. 1%, mainly due to the stimulus of 4 trillion investment. Since the investment in the first quarter is already very large, if we want to guarantee 8%, the investment in the second half of the year must be increased, and the annual investment will definitely exceed 4 trillion.

Second, can structural adjustment be effectively integrated into this anti-crisis action and put in place? If it is not in place, it may not be difficult to stimulate the total demand, but in the end, the story of the past is repeated. China's manufacturing industry is still producing a large number of products with low added value in the past. Whether China's structural adjustment can produce something as clear as Obama's and regard structural adjustment as the main driving force to stimulate domestic demand is a key issue.

Third, the possible problems in the China crisis. Under the anti-crisis measures, China is facing the opposite situation with the United States. The United States is the sector where the economic system affects the real economy, while China is due to external demand, the new labor contract law, and even our macroeconomic policies before September 2008. China is the first sector with problems in the real economy. Except for the stock market, the financial sector is in good condition. So the problems in China and the United States are opposite. The real economy may affect the financial system.

Fourth, the enthusiasm of commercial banks. Many years ago, China engaged in western development, and later revitalized the old industrial base in Northeast China. The results of these two strategies are far from ideal. In fact, the responsibility lies not with the central authorities, but with the enthusiasm of the central authorities and local authorities. However, we should see the reasons behind these two developments. Master the five banking systems of industry, agriculture, China, construction and exchange, which are the vast majority of the country's monetary and financial resources, put the western region at the end of the internal rating, divide many areas in Northeast China into credit D and E areas, and invest in Jiangsu and Zhejiang if you have money. Therefore, the key to expanding domestic demand in China lies in how to get the banks that control most of the monetary resources to act. With the introduction of the central government's policy to revitalize the old industrial base in Northeast China, a large amount of funds will be invested in Northeast China, and the stock market should have a good increase under the stimulus of funds.

At present, the global financial system is under great pressure, and the subprime mortgage crisis since April 2007 has plunged the global economy into recession. Citigroup believes that the global economy will shrink in 2009. The depth, scope and speed of financial adjustment and recovery are still uncertain factors affecting the market. "Even if the economic contraction rate may slow down in the second half of 2009, the economic growth rate may still be at a low level after the 20 10 economy recovers as expected."

Obviously, Citigroup is pessimistic about the global economic situation. For the forecast of global economic growth and inflation rate, Citigroup believes that the global GDP growth rate will be 0.5% in 2009 and will return to 2.6% in 20 10; In 2009, the global inflation rate was 2.5%, and 20 10 was 2.6%. Among them, the regions with negative GDP growth in 2009 were the United States, Europe, Japan and Singapore.

In 2009, China still maintained the leading GDP growth rate. According to the investment research department of Citigroup, it will not only guarantee eight, but also be slightly higher, reaching 8.2%.

Huang, chief economist of Asia-Pacific region of Citigroup, said: "We believe that the China government has the ability to achieve its target growth", and he said: "Fiscal revenue and profits of state-owned enterprises still account for a high proportion of GDP, while most fixed assets investment and bank assets are still controlled by the state. It can be seen that despite decades of economic reforms, the country's ability to promote economic growth has not been weakened. "

Although China's GDP can be guaranteed at 8%, the decline of corporate profits is inevitable, which means that GDP may have a soft landing, but corporate profits will only have a hard landing. China suffered from deflation twice during 1998- 1999 and 2002. The causes of deflation are weak exports and overproduction. At present, the weakness of external demand is more serious than at any time in the past 10, so the problems such as overcapacity and deflation caused by the reduction of exports are more serious in the current economic downturn. Deflation is bad news for corporate profits. For the judgment of China stock market, the factors of stock price rise and fall are more complicated. Although it will certainly be negatively affected by poor returns, relatively sufficient liquidity, unexpected economic growth, cheap valuation and stable risk appetite will probably be major positive factors, and the market may begin to recover in the first half of this year.

Although the China A-share market continued its downward trend at the end of 2007 in 2008 under the double influence of macro-control and subprime mortgage crisis, it was still relatively active, and began to rebound from 1 1. With the implementation of various expansionary macro-control policies and the appearance of their effects, investors' confidence has gradually recovered, and it is expected that the market will fluctuate upward in 2009.

Basic characteristics of A-share market in 2008

Looking at the trend of China A-share market in 2008, we can clearly see the following important features:

First, the stock index fell sharply and stabilized at the end of the year.

After the Shanghai Composite Index reached a record 6 124 on June 6, 2007, the China stock market entered a downward phase, and this trend continued further in 2008. However, the factors affecting the market downturn during this period are more complicated. In addition to the adjustment requirements of the market itself, the moderately tight macro-control policies adopted by the government to prevent the economy from overheating have made investors expect the future economic cooling. At the same time, the regulatory authorities have also taken a series of measures to curb the stock market rise. Under the combined effect of these factors, the A-share market generally fell in 2008. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 526 1 at the end of 2007 to 1 at the end of 2008, with a decrease of 65.39%. During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index reached its lowest point 1625 on October 28th, 2008 10. In 2008, the decline of the Shanghai Composite Index was second only to the MICEX index of Russia, which was much higher than that of the United States and Britain, France, Germany, Japan and other countries deeply affected by the financial crisis. Therefore, this round of decline in the A-share market cannot be completely explained by the international financial crisis. If the decline of the US Dow Jones index is estimated to be 29.42%, assuming that the Shanghai Composite Index also fell by the same amount on the basis of 526 1 point in 2008, then its absolute decline is 1547.79 points, and the year-end closing point of the Shanghai Composite Index should be above 3,700 points. Therefore, it can be said that the A-share market in 2008 belongs to the category of serious oversold.

Affected by the decline of A-share market, compared with 2007, the financing and trading of China stock market also declined. In 2008, domestic financing decreased by 438.658 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.80%; Among them, the amount of A-share IPO financing decreased from 459.062 billion yuan in 2007 to 654.38+003.652 billion yuan in 2008, a decrease of 3554./kloc-0.00 billion yuan, with a decrease of 77.42%. Compared with 2007, the trading days in 2008 increased by two days, but the stock turnover decreased from 46,055.62 billion yuan to 2671/kloc-0.26 billion yuan (down 42%), and the stock turnover decreased from 3,640.376 billion shares to 2413/kloc-0.

The overall downward market situation in 2008 brought serious investment losses to investors, but this round of market trend is completely different from that in 20001-2004. First of all, the market in 2008 has a rational correction color to the explosive market in 2006-2007 to a certain extent. Before 2007 10 month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 126%, with the highest exceeding 6000 points. Such an increase is very rare in the global stock market, and it is also rare in the history of China stock market. Although the domestic and international economic prosperity is good, the share-trading reform has basically ended, and the market liquidity is abundant, no matter how significant the fundamental changes, they are not enough to support the stock market to rise at such a speed, and it is even more difficult to support the stock index to continue to rise. The downward adjustment of the stock market is inevitable. Secondly, the market downturn in 2008 did not lead to a record low trading volume, and the market remained active. In 2008, the average weekly trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange was 3,565.438+0.6 billion shares, which was lower than that of 5,266.5438+0 billion shares in 2007, but higher than that of 2005 (65.438+0.9 billion shares) and 2006 (2,306.5438+0 billion shares), making it the second highest year in the history of China stock market. The active trading shows that the market adjustment has not fundamentally shaken the confidence of investors, and there are still a large number of buying orders in the market to undertake the selling of risk-averse investors, which is an important reason for the future stock market to pick up. Third, the low point of stock market adjustment in 2008 is close to the level at the end of 2006, and the achievements of stock market rise in 2006 have not been seriously lost. If we leave aside the inflated index caused by the stock market outbreak in 2007, after the market adjustment in June 2008, 165438+ 10 can be regarded as undertaking the further development of the bull market in 2006.

Second, the trend of A-share market is obviously influenced by European and American stock markets.

In the second half of 2008, the global stock market turmoil triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis had an increasingly obvious impact on the China stock market. In 2008, the trend of European and American stock markets had more and more influence on the trend of China A-share market (the internal mechanism and action mechanism of this influence deserve further discussion). With the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis and the introduction of rescue measures by European and American governments, the volatility of European and American stock markets has increased. The subprime mortgage crisis and its expectation of causing economic recession have gradually strengthened the psychological impact on stock market investors. Since September 2008, the A-share market has gradually formed following the trend of European and American stock markets, which has also become an important reason for the continuous decline of the A-share index since the beginning of the year. Follow the trend and gradually change at the end of the year. In fact, the valuation of some listed companies has been low after the A-share market has been adjusted in advance by a much larger margin than the European and American markets. At this time, the market continues to follow the European and American stock markets and lacks fundamental foundation.

Third, the market scale continues to expand.

In 2008, the number of listed companies in China stock market and the size of their share capital increased to varying degrees. The number of listed companies increased from 1530 in 2007 to 1604, and the total share capital of the market increased from 1.42 trillion shares to 1.89 trillion shares, among which the number of listed shares increased from 494.6 billion shares to 700 billion shares. At the end of the year, the total market value of the stock market was 12.4 trillion yuan, and the circulating market value was 4.7 trillion yuan. Although it is lower than 2007, it is still higher than 2006, which is the second largest financing year in China stock market after 2007. On the other hand, the lifting of the ban on restricted shares caused by the share-trading reform and the gradual lifting of the lock on the listing of new shares in 2007 have increased the total amount of tradable share capital listed in the market. According to the statistics of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, by the end of 2008, there were 468.2 billion restricted shares produced by share reform, of which 654.38+0364 billion shares had been released, accounting for 2.9 1%. In the future, the restricted shares will be lifted gradually, thus increasing the number of listed shares in circulation. The change of ownership structure will not only expand the scale of stock market circulation, but also have a further impact on the stock price of listed companies.

Fourth, the average price-earnings ratio of the market has dropped to a historical low.

The rapid correction of the stock index eliminated the false high component of the market surge in 2007, and the average price-earnings ratio of the stock fell to 12.86 times at the end of 2008, the lowest point since 1996. Since then, with the recovery of the market, the price-earnings ratio has rebounded. By February 2009 16, the average market price-earnings ratio reached 17.74 times. P/E ratio is not the only reliable basis for stock valuation, but from this indicator, we can find that the expectations of stock market investors on the profitability of listed companies are relatively negative. However, if we carefully examine and compare the financial situation of listed companies, it is difficult to draw the conclusion that the profitability of listed companies will fall into extreme deterioration. After the plunge, the stock price may be undervalued. The average P/E ratio of the market dropped from 66 times to 13 times, and only 1 year was used. What is the reason for this abnormal change? Has the external environment changed so much during the period of 1 year that investors have to significantly reduce the profit expectations of all listed companies? By analyzing the financial situation of listed companies in the last three years, we find that the financial situation of listed companies has not generally deteriorated. In 2006, the main business income of listed companies was 5 1 trillion yuan, up 19% year-on-year. In 2007, due to the centralized listing of large-cap stocks, this index quickly reached 7.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.9%. The main income of listed companies in each quarter of 2008 remained basically stable, indicating that the total market index was less affected by the issuance of new shares, and the main income in each quarter was between 2.6-2.9 trillion yuan. The operating profit decreased from 302.8 billion yuan in the first quarter to 244 billion yuan in the third quarter, indicating that the profitability of listed companies did show a downward trend, but the profit decline of listed companies was limited. Overall, various financial indicators still increased compared with 2007. In the first three quarters of 2008, the main income, operating profit and total profit have exceeded or approached the level of the whole year of 2007. It is certain that the total profit of listed companies in 2008 exceeded that in 2007, but the growth rate has narrowed. Therefore, it can be said that the fundamental changes of listed companies do not support the sharp decline in P/E ratio, and the share prices of a considerable number of listed companies may be seriously underestimated.

Fifth, investor confidence remained stable.

In 2008, the stock market fell sharply. Although it had a great impact on investors' confidence, some investors chose to leave, but unlike the previous bear market, this market decline did not completely curb the enthusiasm of new investors. In 2008, the total number of new A shares, B shares and fund accounts reached16.64 million, which was lower than that in 2007, but still equivalent to three times that in 2006. Historically, the number of newly opened accounts has followed the changes in the stock index. In the year when the stock index falls, the number of new accounts will decrease, and in the year when the stock index rises, the number of new accounts will increase. This follow-up effect was particularly obvious in 2007. In that year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 96.7%, and the number of newly opened accounts soared from 5.38 million in 2006 to 60.57 million. It can be seen that the following relationship between the number of new accounts and the stock index still exists in 2008. With the gradual decline of the stock index, the number of newly opened accounts is also steadily decreasing, but it still maintains a high absolute level. 165438+1After the stock market stabilized in October, the number of new accounts opened in February increased rapidly from 777,000 in1.08 million.

Of course, opening new accounts by investors does not necessarily mean a net increase in the total amount of funds entering the stock market. In the falling stage of the stock market, when new investors enter the market, a large number of old investors may leave. Although there is no direct data to explain the real situation of capital inflow and outflow in the stock market in 2008, the monthly investor position report issued by China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation can reflect this trend to some extent. As can be seen from Figure 7, according to company statistics, the number of A-share positions increased steadily from 34.32 million in June 2007 to 47.89 million in July 2008. Since then, the number of holding accounts has declined, but it still remains above 47 million, and the proportion of holding accounts in all accounts has remained at around 40%. Although the increase in the number of accounts opened does not mean that the amount of funds entering the market will definitely increase, it can at least show that the number of investors entering the stock market has increased, and investors who open accounts still have considerable financial strength. In June 2008 and June 2008, when the stock market picked up, the total number of open investors did not increase significantly, indicating that this round of rebound was mainly formed by the continued increase of investment by existing investors. The initial market can basically be defined as ". Investors' loss tolerance and regeneration ability are important indicators to examine the maturity of a market. In the second half of the year, the A-share market in China picked up when the number of investors was basically stable, indicating that the investment ability of the existing investor groups in the A-share market can support the stable operation of the market in the downturn, and the investor groups are becoming more and more mature.

Prospect of stock market trend in 2009

2009 is a crucial year for China's economy to overcome the adverse effects of the international financial crisis and maintain steady economic growth. Developed economies are unlikely to recover from the crisis in the short term. Facing the unfavorable economic situation, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have taken a series of effective measures to expand domestic demand, creating conditions for the healthy development of the national economy. This year's macroeconomic trend will have a greater impact on the capital market than before. At the same time, the remaining system defects and new reform measures will continue to affect the market operation from different focus points.

Macroeconomic factors. In the international economy, the financial crisis has had a far-reaching impact on the real economy of developed economies. In 2008, the cumulative value of US GDP decreased by 0.2% year-on-year. In the third quarter, EU GDP increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while Japan's GDP decreased by 2. 1% year-on-year. During the period of 65438+February, the industrial output value of the United States decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, while that of the European Union decreased by 12.7%. The comprehensive leading indicator of OECD, which represents the economic prosperity of developed economies, continued the downward trend since the beginning of the year and fell to 92.9, down 1. 1 from last month and down 8.2 from the same period last year. Commodity prices continue to fall. As of February 13, 2009, the futures price of crude oil in the New York Mercantile Exchange has dropped to $34.44 per barrel in recent months, and the prices of raw materials such as copper and steel are also hovering at a low level. The World Bank predicts that the economic growth rate of developed countries will be -0. 1% in 2009 and will return to 2% in 20 10. The economic growth rates of developing countries are 4.5% and 6. 1% respectively, among which China is 7.5% and 8.5%.

China's economy has also been hit by the financial crisis, and the economic growth rate has dropped quarter by quarter, reaching 6.8% in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth rate is 9.0% year-on-year. The annual growth rate of the industry was 12.9%, with only 5.4% and 5.7% in June and February. Before 1 1 month, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 2.4 trillion yuan, up only 4.9% year-on-year. The ex-factory price of industrial products decreased by 3.3% from June 5438 to October 2009, indicating that domestic consumption and investment demand showed signs of shrinking. The slowdown of macroeconomic growth will directly affect the profitability of listed companies. It is predicted that in the fourth quarter of 2008, a considerable number of listed companies will experience profit decline or even loss, which will drag down the profitability of the whole year. Since the end of 2008, the state's 4 trillion investment plans to stimulate the economy have been launched one after another, and the national revitalization plans for pillar industries such as steel, automobile, textile and equipment manufacturing have been introduced one after another, creating conditions for maintaining sustained and stable economic growth in 2009. Proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy are conducive to the operating conditions of listed companies, but overall, the profit growth expectations of listed companies in 2009 should be appropriately lowered.

About financial factors. For China, the impact of the international financial crisis and macro-austerity is mainly reflected in the real economy, and the impact on the banking system is relatively small. Therefore, in 2008, China's banking system still showed strong credit supply capacity. In 2008, the balance of local and foreign currency credit of financial institutions increased from 27.8 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 32 trillion yuan at the end of the year. At the same time, corporate deposits and household savings deposits have also maintained a certain degree of growth. At the end of the year, the balance of corporate deposits was 16.4 trillion yuan, up by 13. 1%, and the balance of residents' savings deposits was 2.22 billion yuan, up by 26. 1%. In the case of large-scale deleveraging and credit contraction in the banking system of developed countries, China's banking system can ensure a certain credit scale growth and alleviate the financial difficulties of enterprises under unfavorable conditions, which reflects the long-term stable operation of China's banking system and the actual effect of national macro-control. At the same time, the growth of deposits of enterprises and residents has reserved funds for them to successfully survive the economic adjustment period. Of course, generally speaking, too loose funds may lead to asset price bubbles, but given that China's real estate market and stock market have entered the adjustment period ahead of schedule, it is unlikely that domestic asset prices will soar again this year.

About policy factors. Overcoming the impact of the financial crisis, fully expanding domestic demand and ensuring growth are the primary goals of national macro-control in 2009, and the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue for some time. As far as the capital market is concerned, ensuring the stable operation of the market should be the main goal of the management in 2009, and various reform measures and the introduction of new financial products must be consistent with this goal. In this context, the management will be more cautious about the introduction of GEM, stock index futures and margin financing and securities lending systems, thus reducing the possibility of major adjustments in the capital market in 2009.

Possible trend of A-share market in 2009. In 2008, China's stock market fell far more than that of Europe, America and other countries seriously affected by the financial crisis. At the same time, the fundamentals of China's economy have not fundamentally changed. Therefore, it can be judged that the A-share market is seriously oversold. After September 2008, with the continuous downward adjustment of the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans, the annual return rate of hundreds of stocks with a P/E ratio of about 5 times in the A-share market is roughly 8-1 0 times of the annual deposit. This means that the A-share market has important investment value. Once upon a time, after the stock market soared in 2006 (especially in 2007), some people lamented with regret that the opportunity to enter the market in 2005 would never come again. But in the face of the market at the end of 2008, we can find that many investors are still waiting to see the so-called bottom when the best investment opportunity comes. In fact, the bottom of the so-called stock market decline can often be found only after the stock market rises and looks back; Even if a bottom is formed in the stock market operation, the stocks that can be traded at this bottom are extremely limited, and not everyone can buy them. So even institutional investors often can't do it, let alone individual investors. Due to the "serious oversold" in the A-share market, it has the inherent requirement of "oversold" in 2009 under the background of loose macro policies and loose stock market policies. If the trend of the real economy can pick up in the second half of 2009, then this "compensatory growth" may continue to launch a new round of upward market. Therefore, the overall trend of the A-share market in 2009 is upward.