The reason for the plunge is not unexpected.
Zhou, assistant director of the Northeast Securities Finance and Industry Research Institute, believes that it is still caused by macroeconomic fundamentals and market liquidity. From the macroeconomic fundamentals, although the macroeconomic data for the first half of this year will not be released until mid-July. "But according to our forecast, this year's economic growth rate peaked in the first quarter, and then it will fall back quarter by quarter, and the fall time will last until the first quarter of next year. Because the first quarter of this year is a high point, the growth rate in the first quarter of next year will be relatively low. " Zhou's forecast is that the GDP growth rate in the first half of this year is about 9.5%-10%; It will fall back to 8.5%-9% in the second half of this year; It will further fall back to around 8% in the first quarter of next year. As a "barometer" of macro-economy, the stock market will certainly react, and it will react in advance.
Judging from the international economic situation, at the G20 Summit, many countries, especially EU members, demanded to reduce the fiscal deficit, which meant that the loose monetary policy and the proactive fiscal policy would be withdrawn. Although it is unlikely that China will raise interest rates again and the deposit reserve ratio in the short term, the market expectation has turned pessimistic.
"ABC's IPO inquiry results also have a certain impact on the market decline." Zhou explained to reporters that it is reasonable to say that ABC's initial price of 2.52-2.68 yuan/share is lower than originally expected, and its price-to-book ratio is only about 1.6 times, which has certain advantages over ICBC, BOC and CCB that have already been listed. But dialectically, it's not that simple. It is precisely because the inquiry result of ABC's IPO is lower than the market expectation and the P/B ratio of the other three major banks, then the valuation of the other three major banks is under pressure and it is necessary to find opportunities to release this pressure. Judging from yesterday's disk, bank stocks also "turned green" with the broader market.
Feng Wensuo, a senior strategist at New Era Securities, said that for more than a month, the market fluctuated within a narrow range of 2500-2600 points, and the recent trading volume was frequent. On Monday, the turnover of the two cities was only 90.9 billion. These signals indicate that the market is about to change. Now it seems that the bottom of the market is not really clear.
Feng Wensuo also believes that from yesterday's disk, there is almost no resistance during the decline, and the bears are fierce. There should be a lot of bad news behind it, but there are only two big bad news: first, the IPO of Agricultural Bank of China, regardless of its initial price is high or low, will divert market funds; Secondly, some media reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the United States were delisted, while financial institutions in China currently hold $500 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, so it will be more and more difficult to sell them and realize them.
"Of course, the current high valuation of small and medium-sized board and GEM also needs to be compensated." Feng Wensuo said that at present, the average P/E ratio of small and medium-sized board is about 40 times, which is twice the average P/E ratio of the main board market, and the valuation risk needs to be released.