As 2018 comes to an end, the economy is still showing signs of weakness and downward pressure remains unabated. Judging from the mid-level high-frequency data since December: terminal demand remains weak, real estate sales growth has fallen again, and passenger car wholesale and retail growth continues to bottom out; industrial production is stable in the short term, and the growth rate of coal consumption for power generation has narrowed, but The growth rate of crude steel output has been adjusted back, and the operating rates of automobiles, steel and other industries are still on a downward path.
Looking back on the real economy in 18 years, the advancement of deleveraging marked by new asset management regulations and supporting details has caused a sharp contraction in non-standard financing, and it is difficult for on-balance sheet credit expansion to undertake the huge volume of non-standard financing , combined with the deterioration in exports caused by external factors and the constraints on domestic demand caused by high leverage caused by residents' home purchases, the business environment for enterprises has tended to deteriorate, and economic growth has stabilized and slowed down. External demand is not optimistic in 2019. Domestic demand will be the main driving force for economic transformation and development. The key to boosting domestic demand is to reduce taxes and fees and transfer profits to residents and corporate sectors, and further release the dividends of reform!
Demand: Downstream real estate and passenger cars weakened, home appliances, textiles and clothing improved, and entertainment weakened. Midstream steel and cement improved, while chemicals weakened. Upstream coal is weakening and non-ferrous metals are diverging. Transport is weak.
Price: In November, housing prices in 70 cities rebounded year-on-year. Last week, domestic investment prices were mixed, and international oil prices fell.
Inventory: Downstream real estate sales, passenger car replenishment. The midstream steel industry will be depleted and the cement and chemical industries will be replenished. Upstream coal and non-ferrous metals differentiation.
Downstream industries:
Real estate: Since December, the growth rate of real estate sales in 41 cities has slowed down, and land transactions in 100 cities have slowed down. In the first five days of late December, the sales growth rate of real estate sales in 41 cities turned negative to -1.5%. In the first 25 days of December, the sales growth rate of real estate sales in 41 cities was 0.4%, which was lower than the growth rate in November and almost returned to zero. Among them, the third and fourth tier cities It is still at a low level, while the first and second tier cities have fallen back significantly. The short-term recovery in commercial housing sales in first- and second-tier cities in the early stage has led to a slight reduction in inventory. Last week, the inventory-to-sales ratio of commercial housing in the top ten cities fell back to 37.8. Transactions in the land market are still slowing down. The area of ??land transactions in 100 cities fell back last week, while the year-on-year growth rate turned from positive to negative.
Passenger cars: The wholesale and retail sales of passenger cars are still at the bottom in the first three weeks of December, and the operating rate continues to fall. Automobile production and sales were still weak in November, and the automaker's operating income growth rate was -3.7%. The decline was narrower than that in October, but this was mainly due to a low base. The cumulative growth rate dropped to 4.7%, still maintaining a downward trend. In the first three weeks of December, the growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales were -30% and -35% respectively, a sharp decline from November, and are still bottoming out. Last week, the operating rate of semi-steel tires also continued to fall back to 66.8%, which is currently at a historical low for the same period in the past year. The weak supply and demand situation has not changed significantly.
Home appliances: The exports of the three major white appliances increased more than decreased in November, and the sales growth rate of air-conditioning manufacturers rebounded. In November, the export growth rate of the three major white appliances increased more than decreased. Among them, the export growth rate of air conditioners rebounded sharply to 46.6%, and the growth rate of refrigerators rose slightly to 14%. Only the export growth rate of washing machines turned from positive to negative due to the high base in the same period last year. 1.3%. The sales volume of air-conditioning manufacturers in November increased by 10.3%, which was also significantly higher due to the low base in the same period last year. The performance of export sales was particularly impressive, which may be related to the "rush for orders" effect of exports. The inventory-to-sales ratio of air-conditioning manufacturers fell slightly to 1.03 in November, but it is still at a high level for the same period in previous years.
Steel: Steel prices rebounded last week, operating rates continued to fall, and social inventories were reduced. Steel prices rebounded last week, with both thread and hot plate prices rising, but still at low levels. The varying increases in steel prices led to divergent trends in gross profit per ton, with thread prices rebounding and hot plate prices falling slightly. In early December, the crude steel output of key steel companies increased by 7.5%, slightly lower than that in November. The blast furnace operating rate also continued to decline to 65.1% last week, further narrowing the gap with the same period in 2017, and supply tends to shrink. In early December, the inventory growth rate of key steel companies dropped sharply to 2%, while the speed of social inventory depletion has slowed down, pointing to the possibility that dealers may accumulate inventory.
Cement: The national average price of cement rose slightly last week, and the storage-to-capacity ratio was close to that of the same period last year. The national average cement price rose slightly last week, with the month-on-month growth rate rising to 0.07%, and the storage-to-capacity ratio continued to rise to 48.9%, which is close to the level of the same period last year. In late December, most of the northern regions entered the off-season, and demand weakened significantly. Due to the support of off-peak production, prices were relatively stable. After the weather improved in the southern region, downstream demand rebounded significantly, corporate shipments basically returned to normal, and cement prices continued to remain stable at high levels. Lord. In terms of regions, North China and Central and South China remained stable, East China was stable with a slight decrease, and Southwest China was mostly stable and slightly fluctuated.
Chemical industry: Prices in the PTA industry chain generally fell last week, and polyester POY stocks rose. Last week, the prices of PTA industry chain products generally fell. Among them, the prices of polyester POY, polyester chips, and PTA all fell again. The fall in oil prices coupled with sluggish downstream demand caused the price of PTA industry chain products to fall again. Polyester POY inventory rose to 13 days last week, which was at a historical high for the same period last week. Last week, the load rate of the PTA industry chain increased more than decreased, and only the polyester factory fell slightly. Overall, industry production is stable and demand is weak.
Machinery: In November, the revenue growth rate of the sub-industry increased more than decreased, and the industry climate improved. In November, the revenue growth rate of various machinery sub-sectors increased more than decreased. General equipment, railway ships and electrical machinery rose to 9.4%, 6.8% and 7% respectively. The revenue growth rate of the special equipment industry rose sharply to 16.8%. Only instruments The meter dropped to 0.7%. On the one hand, the rebound in industry revenue growth is due to the low base in the same period last year, but on the other hand, it also reflects the improvement in industry prosperity, which may be related to the improvement in construction conditions under the policy of strengthening weak links.
Electricity: The growth rate of coal consumption for power generation narrowed in the first 26 days of December, and industrial production was stable in the short term. In the first six days of late December, the average daily coal consumption growth rate of the six major power generation groups turned from positive to negative to -3.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate turned negative to -0.9%, setting a new low for the same period in the past. In the first 26 days of December, the average daily coal consumption growth rate for power generation rebounded to -3.3%, which was significantly narrower than the decline in November, pointing to the short-term stability of industrial production. However, the operating rates of major industries such as automobiles and steel have begun to decline continuously, which means that subsequent pressure on the production side still exists.
Upstream industries and transportation:
Coal: Coal prices fluctuated and fell last week, with power plant inventories being depleted and steel mill inventories being replenished. Coal prices fluctuated last week, with coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port continuing to fall. In the first 26 days of December, the year-on-year growth rate of coal consumption for power generation of the six major groups narrowed compared with the decline in November. The number of days of coal inventory in power plants continued to fall to 22 days last week. The blast furnace operating rate dropped again last week, and the number of days of coking coal inventory in steel plants continued to rise to 15.2 days, which is already at a relatively high level for the same period in previous years.
Non-ferrous metals: Last week, LME copper prices fell, aluminum prices rose, copper inventories fell, and aluminum inventories rose. Base metal prices rose more than fell last week. Copper prices fell on average last week after an Indian court lifted a ban on the closure of miner Vedanta's copper smelter. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a symposium with some key electrolytic aluminum companies. It is expected that the planned domestic electrolytic aluminum production scale will exceed 800,000 tons/year in the next period of time. Aluminum prices rebounded slightly last week.
Commodities: Crude oil prices fell last week, the CRB index fell, and the U.S. dollar index fell. Crude oil prices fell again last week, Russia's oil output hit a record high in December, and the market lacks confidence in the timing and intensity of OPEC's production cuts. The average value of the CRB index fell last week. The U.S. dollar index fell back last week, and the Federal Reserve announced a 25-BP interest rate hike and lowered its economic growth forecast. The current interest rate level is close to the bottom area of ??the neutral interest rate estimated by policymakers.
Transportation: The BDI and CCFI indices both fell last week, and the highway logistics freight index fell back. Consolidation and bulk shipping performed poorly last week, with both BDI and CCFI indexes falling. The average rent of capesize ships decreased by 16% month-on-month, the average rent of Panamax ships decreased by 2.7% month-on-month, and the average rent of superhandy ships increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The road logistics freight index fell last week.