The factors that affect the spot crude oil price mainly include the following points:
1, the influence of supply and demand
The relationship between supply and demand is the fundamental factor affecting the pricing of any commodity market, and fuel oil is no exception. With the sustained and rapid economic development in China, the demand for energy in China is also growing rapidly. By 2003, domestic fuel oil production can only meet half of domestic demand, while imported resources account for half of the total supply. The increase or decrease of import quantity greatly affects the domestic fuel oil supply, so the import and export data of fuel oil published by authoritative departments is an important indicator to judge the supply and demand situation. Singapore General Spot Price (MOPS) is the benchmark price of fuel oil in Singapore, and it is also the benchmark price of fuel oil imported from China. Therefore, MOPS and its discount reflect the cost of imported fuel oil and have a more direct impact on the price of fuel oil in China.
2. The influence of crude oil price trend
Fuel oil is the downstream product of crude oil, and the price trend of crude oil is an important factor affecting the supply and demand of fuel oil, so there is a strong correlation between the price trend of fuel oil and crude oil. According to the research on the price trend in recent years, the correlation between the New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude oil futures and Singapore fuel oil spot market and 180CST high-sulfur fuel oil is as high as 90%. WTI refers to West Texas Intermediate crude oil, whose futures contract is listed on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The main crude oil futures in the world are IPE, which refers to Brent crude oil in the North Sea and is listed on the British International Petroleum Exchange. The price trend of WTI and IPE are two important bases for judging the price trend of fuel oil.
3. The influence of the production policies of oil-producing countries, especially the member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Since 1980s, the oil production of non-OPEC countries has accounted for about two-thirds of the world's oil production, which has declined in recent years. However, their remaining recoverable oil reserves are limited, and the production policies of various countries are not unified, so their influence on crude oil prices cannot be compared with that of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries control most of the world's oil resources. For common interests, the output and oil price agreements reached among member countries can be supported by most countries. Therefore, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plays an irreplaceable role in the international oil market, and its production policy has a great influence on the price of crude oil.
4, the influence of international and domestic economy.
Fuel oil is an important energy source in the economic development of all countries, especially in power industry, petrochemical industry, transportation industry, building materials and light industry, and its demand is closely related to economic development. When analyzing macro-economy, two indicators are very important, one is economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is industrial production growth rate. When the economy grows, the demand for fuel oil will also increase, which will drive the price of fuel oil to rise. When the economy declines, the shrinking demand for fuel oil will push down the price. Therefore, it is very important to grasp and predict the future trend of fuel oil prices and grasp the evolution of macroeconomics.
5. Geopolitical influence
Among the factors affecting oil prices, geopolitics is one of the important factors that cannot be ignored. Geopolitically, revolutions or riots in the world's major oil-producing countries, wars in the Middle East, especially the recent spread and intensification of terrorism around the world, will have an important impact on oil prices. Looking back on the oil price trend in the past 30 years, it is not difficult to find that major geopolitical changes in the world's major oil-producing countries or the Middle East will be reflected in the oil price trend.
6. Speculative factors
International hedge funds and other speculative funds are the most active speculative forces in various oil markets. Because the fund has a deeper understanding of macro fundamentals and a "foresight", there is a very good correlation between fund positions and the rise and fall of oil prices. Although the price may rise and fall excessively under the influence of fund participation, understanding the fund's trend is also the key to grasp the market.
7. Impact of relevant markets
The influence of exchange rate. International fuel oil transactions are generally priced in US dollars, but at present, several major currencies in the world implement floating exchange rate system, and the international fuel oil price priced in US dollars will inevitably be affected by the exchange rate. The impact of interest rates. Interest rate is an important means for the government to regulate the economy. According to the change of interest rate, we can understand the government's economic policy, so as to predict the evolution of economic development and its impact on the demand for crude oil and fuel oil. Therefore, both the exchange rate market and the interest rate market have a considerable impact on oil prices.